Thread: Patton $ Online

A discussion about what your dollars get you.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

How'd it go, Texpope?

I just posted the Opening Day update. Full program, PWW and PWO data files, hitter and pitcher text files and the Excel file to round it out.

The short season broke the projection $ pricing in the program, but Mike had the brilliant idea to include the adjustment (x2.7) in the spreadsheet. So that's in there now. You can also change the projections, I don't mind, and get a recalculated 5x5 price.

Cutting the number of games in the projections also broke the formula that roughly determined starting pitchers and relief pitchers. In the spreadsheet I added a new formula for that column. A pitcher who starts more than 33 percent of his games is a starter, everybody else is a reliever or a blank (if no games are projected).

This release has some added projections for players who have made opening day rosters who weren't expected to. Not many impact players there, maybe not even any draftable ones, but there were surprising cuts. I think I've got all of them through about 4pm this afternoon. 

Good luck in this weird season. Let me know if you have any issues. Nothing scans, all of it looks like a mistake, play ball!

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jul 23
Just in time ... CBS is doing an auction for the 60 game season today.

It's 12 teams, both leagues - so values will be out of whack.  Usually in this format I tend to go heavy on the "Stars and Scrubs" approach.  

I'm thinking in the era of Covid - when any freaking player out there might (a) test positive and disappear for a few weeks (ie - up to 40% of the season even if they're asymptomatic) ... or (b) just say "F-it" and go home - that's not the right approach.  Will instead be trying to maximize the number of 3rd-4th round type players I can get on my team, so any individual hit won't damage me as much.
Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jul 10

Okay, the Excel file is updated as well. A close look at the projections tells just how crazy this 60 game season, if it's played, will be. The team with the most hot hands is going to win.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jul 9

They're posted! Subscribers should find links to the full updated program, the text files and updated data (PWO PWW and PWM) files. This was a bear of an update, so please keep your eyes peeled for mistakes. We fixed lots of things (players who are out with prices, for instance) but if we hear of more we'll post about them here.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jul 9

I'm not sure about paying the stars less. I mean, if you do that you have to pay the middle guys more and they're just as likely to go down. Why overpay them if they don't?

Or maybe you pay more for the scrubs, because that's where you going to find big profits. You just don't know which ones.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jul 8

So we're back to "Buy the 26, 27, and 28 year-olds"

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Jul 8

This has long struck me as the ultimate spread-the-risk season. The other big question is whether there is a significant difference based on age. Not in terms of getting COVID-19. But rather in terms of sitting out the season if and when things get dicey. A pre-arbitration player probably doesn't have the financial resources to take the hit to his family's earnings. But a 29-year-old on a multi-year contract certainly does. 

Walter Shapiro WShapiro
Jul 8

I think you're right Kent. But the stars who don't go down, who have hot starts, are going to have some amazing earnings.

So will the hot scrubs, of course.

Alex Patton Alex
Jul 8

Roster Resource at FanGraphs has a lot of the bullpen, rotation, order stuff that you can leverage.

Rotoman -- as I've said before, stars should be lower than usual this year since they could very well get Covid through no fault of their own. It's an unusual risk for this year (and probably next).

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Jul 8

Good thing it wasn't today...

My main contribution in this first update will be to predict batting orders, rotations and bullpens. I'm glad I'm not predicting wins. That's Peter's job.

Alex Patton Alex
Jul 8