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There was a very simple math mistake in my 5x5 formulas for pitchers. Here's the same list of ten most expensive pitchers with earnings corrected.
cost earned +/-
1. Max Scherzer 42 28 -14
2. Jacob deGrom 41 35 -6
3. Chris Sale 38 17 -21
4. Justin Verlander 35 49 14
5. Gerrt Cole 34 47 13
6. Corey Kluber 34 -1 -35
7. Aaron Nola 32 18 -14
8. Blake Snell 30 10 -20
9. Trevor Bauer 29 17 -12
10. Carlos Carrasco 29 5 -25
average 34 22 -12
As you see, the great pitchers gain a little, the not great don't change.
Colin will be importing the revised formulas this weekend.
Nov 7
The ten most expensive pitchers in 2019 and what they earned:
cost earned +/-
1. Max Scherzer 42 27 -16
2. Jacob deGrom 41 33 -8
3. Chris Sale 38 16 -22
4. Justin Verlander 35 47 12
5. Gerrt Cole 34 45 11
6. Corey Kluber 34 -1 -35
7. Aaron Nola 32 17 -15
8. Blake Snell 30 10 -20
9. Trevor Bauer 29 16 -13
10. Carlos Carrasco 29 5 -25
average 34 22 -13
The long and the short: the market paid $7 less for its ten most coveted pitchers (all starters, naturally, in 5x5) and the group earned, on average, $3 less than the hitters. Two pitchers turned handsome profits. No hitter earned what he cost.
Nov 5
A different kind of leaderboard. Our kind of leaderboard.
The ten most expensive players in 2019 and what they earned.
cost earned +/1
1. Mike Trout 50 32 -18
2. Mookie Betts 48 32 -16
3. Treat Turner 41 33 - 8
4. Nolan Arenado 41 33 -7
5. Aaron Judge 41 17 -24
6. Jose Ramirez 40 24 -16
7. J.D. Martinez 39 29 -10
8. Bryce Harper 39 28 -11
9. Jose Altuve 38 25 -13
10. Giancarlo Stanton 37 3 -34
Cost is the average salary paid in the three widely-followed demo leagues: CBS, LABR and Tout Wars. All 12-team 5x5 with $260 budgets. Tout counts OPB instead of BA.
Earned is what my 2019 formulas, which I've finally calculated, show them earning in 5x5.
The bottom line:
average price: $41
average earned: $25
average profit or loss: -$16
Nov 5
Baseball Prospectus top ten WARP -- pitchers.
1. Stephen Strasburg 8.3
2. Justin Verlander 7.9
3. Gerrit Cole 7.9
4. Jacob deGrom 7.8
5. Jack Flaherty 7.1
6. Max Scherzer 6.2
7. Yu Darvish 6.0
8. Lance Lynn 5.9
9. Charlie Morton 5.9
10. Patrick Corbin 5.9
Strasberg isn't just at the top of this list, he's at the top with some to spare.
Darvish and Corbin crash the party.
Oct 9
Fangraphs top ten WAR -- pitchers:
1. Gerrit Cole 7.4
2. Jacob deGrom 7.0
3. Lance Lynn 6.8
4. Max Scherzer 6.5
5. Justin Verlander 6.4
6. Charlie Morton 6.1
7. Stephen Strasburg 5.7
8. Shane Bieber 5.6
9. Zach Greinke 5.4
10. Lucas Giolito 5.1
Cole is the biggest gainer (compared to Baseball-Reference) while a teammate is the biggest loser. One Ranger stays at No. 3 while the other drops off the list.
Oct 8
Baseball-Reference top ten WAR -- pitchers:
Park context gives the the Rangers two of the three best starting pitchers this year? I can't think what else explains it.
Oct 8
Fangraphs top ten WAR for position players (fielding included):
1 Trout 8.6
2 Bregman 8.5
3 Yelich 7.8
4 Bellinger 7.8
5 Semien 7.6
6 Marte 7.1
7 Rendon 7.0
8 Bogaerts 6.8
9 Betts 6.6
10 Springer 6.5
Biggest difference from Baseball-Reference is Bellinger.
Oct 7
Starting a new thread... First up: a comparison of two WAR rankings at Baseball-Reference:
Wins Above Replacement for position players
A single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add.
1.Bellinger LAD 9.0
2.Bregman HOU 8.4
3.Trout LAA 8.3
4.Semien OAK 8.1
5.Yelich MIL 7.1
6.Marte ARI 6.9
7.Betts BOS 6.8
8.Chapman OAK 6.7
9.Story COL 6.4
10.Rendon WSN 6.3
Offensive Wins Above Replacement (everything but Fielding)
The same statistic as Wins Above Replacement for Position Players (WAR), but with the fielding value excluded.
1.Trout LAA 8.3
2.Bregman HOU 7.7
3.Semien OAK 7.5
4.Yelich MIL 7.3
5.Bogaerts BOS 7.1
6.Marte ARI 6.6
7.Bellinger LAD 6.6
8.Rendon WSN 6.4
9.Alonso NYM 5.8
10.Devers BOS 5.7
Oct 6