Zack Greinke Houston Astros

Age: 37 (October 21, 1983) | 6' 2" | 200lbs. | Throws: Right P-33 PH-1
Tm Lg YEAR W L SV Hld G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP Rating BB/9 SO/9 BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
ARI NL 2017 17 7 0 0 32 32 202.0 172 25 45 215 3.21 1.07 1.15 2.0 9.6 .293 47/18/35 31 29
ARI NL 2018 15 11 0 0 33 33 207.1 181 28 43 199 3.21 1.08 1.18 1.9 8.6 .284 45/23/32 25 24
HOU AL 2019 8 1 0 0 10 10 62.2 58 6 9 52 3.02 1.07 1.14 1.3 7.5 .294 52/19/29 14 11
ARI NL 2019 10 4 0 0 23 23 146.0 117 15 21 135 2.90 0.95 1.03 1.3 8.3 .269 42/23/35 26 23
HOU AL 2020 3 3 0 0 12 12 67.0 67 6 9 67 4.03 1.13 1.20 1.2 9.0 .333 41/25/34 14 17
HOU AL 2021 1 0 0 0 2 2 13.0 8 1 1 8 1.38 0.69 0.77 0.7 5.5 .196 36/17/47 4 3
Career 18yrs 209 126 1 0 502 461 2949.1 2736 299 677 2697 3.36 1.16 1.19 2.1 8.2 .302 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

A perfect illustration of why it's so hard for the best starting pitchers to earn more in 5x5 than they do in 4x4. The mediocre ones do earn more.

At least on August 15, that would be you, Zach.

Alex Patton Alex
Aug 15 '16
Now 7/9 :-(
Howard Lynch LynchMob
Aug 15 '16

While Betts was hitting three homers in a game for the second time this season, Greinke was allowing three homers -- surely the most he's allowed in the first two innings (he didn't make it to the third).

Before tomorrow's stat feed he's earned 12/12.

Alex Patton Alex
Aug 14 '16

Became the 4th pitcher since 1900 to have an 11+ strikeout game for 5 different teams joining Big Unit, Burnett, and Javier Vazquez.

van wilhoite LVW
Jun 4 '16

Pitched well today ... but also the beneficiary of a strike zone wide enough for Joe Kelley to get called strikes.  Guess the umps were having mercy after the bullpens were burned out the night before.

Interesting occurrence ... late in the game, Michael Bourne was called safe on an SB attempt where it was clear from the camera angle that he'd been tagged out.  And Astros manager AJ Hinch was out of challenges.  But the lead ump decided to have the play reviewed on his own (it was reversed).

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jun 3 '16

Who says big-time pitching acquisitions can't pay off?

With one on and one out, and trailing by 2 in the bottom of the 12, Zach Greinke pinch-hit for Tyler Clippard and got a single.

Then, Shelby Miller pinch-ran for Greinke and eventually scored the tying run.

Big time money spent on Greinke and Miller, and it looks like it was well spent.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Apr 25 '16

To take LOB% a step further. The least likely time for a baserunner to score is on 1st with 2 outs.

% of TBF with a runner on 1st and 2 out.

Greinke 6.8%

Arrieta(3rd in NL in LOB%) 4.6%

Kershaw 6.3%

Lackey(2nd in NL in LOB%) 6.0%

League Avg 6.1%

It may or may not mean anything in the world of LOB% but here it is anyway,

van wilhoite LVW
Jan 7 '16
FWIW, ESPN's DIPS has him at 2.82.
Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jan 6 '16

Do these three metrics do a better job?

FIP 2.76

ERC 1.56

xERA 3.14

For sure, they do different jobs.

Yesterday, for the six best starting pitchers -- judged by Frangraph's WAR; Greinke is the seventh (5.9) -- I included xFIP and SIERA.

But xFIP is a predictable variation of FIP. If a pitcher is homer-prone, his xFIP is lower, because xFIP assumes an HR/FB rate of ten percent. If the pitcher is stingy witrh homre runs, as Greinke is, his xFIP is higher (3.22 for Greinke).

SIERA closely tracks xFIP  (for Greinke it is 3.27).

So today I'm just going to track the three ERA "should-bes" that are shown above.

FIP is simple. The formulas for ERC and xERA each take more than a page of newsprint -- the first in the Bill James Handbook, the second in the Baseball Forecaster -- to explain.

And which does a better job of isolating Greinke's pitching talent?

As I see it, ERC can't be right. Greinke had a fantastic season, no matter how you slice it, but without a doubt his actual ERA was at least a little lucky. His LOB% (86..5) was the best in the majors, by almost four points, for all pitchers who faced at least 400 batters. His HR/FB percent (7.3) was eighth best (among 144 pitchers). His BABIP was almost 70 points under his career BABIP.

So it's a mystery how ERC thinks his ERA could have been even lower.

Equally, I don't know what xERA is thinking. More than three runs per nine innings? No way!

That leaves FIP, which to my mind still disses the kind of season Greinke just had, but is the best of the three.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 6 '16

One year, a long time ago, we (I) accidentally ran Run Average for pitchers rather than Earned Runs Average in The Guide. That's because in my evaluations I think pitchers Runs Allowed often shows more than ERA. There are exceptions.

Still, ERA does not do a good job of isolating pitching talent.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 4 '16