Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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Quite a battle. I was tied for first with three other teams in the last round, but Nicklaus pulled away with his last pick, the second to last in the draft.

What? You don't remember Ralph LaPoint, shortstop for the Phillies?

He actually had a decent year. I should have taken him as my middle infielder instead of Snuffy Sternweiss, but as a Jersey boy I couldn't resist Snuffy.

I had the first pick and picked Warren Spahn.

Number 42 made it to the third pick in the second round.

With the last pick in the second round, I took the AL MVP, Joe DiMaggio.

Ted Williams who lost out to the Yankee Clipper by one vote in 1947, was the seventh pick in the first round. By Nicklaus in this eight-team league. How he slipped that far is almost as bad as what happened in 1947.

Somehow, even with eight teams, even with the stats already in the books (or because), the draft lasted more than four hours.

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 18

The XFL retro tonight (8 PM) is... 1947.

Will 42 be the first pick??

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ap7CPcsYAIwC3fvt__TmVH021JC30eSHqOFnFEeu2oA/edit#gid=0

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 17

A very interesting chart as we head into the real-life draft.

2020 MLB Draft Starts Today

Top 10 picks

OvrTmWAR*#MLB^
1Detroit Tigers107247
2Baltimore Orioles71147
3Miami Marlins59243
4Kansas City Royals57644
5Toronto Blue Jays40534
6Seattle Mariners58140
7Pittsburgh Pirates40738
8San Diego Padres29136
9Colorado Rockies28335
10Los Angeles Angels49544

* - career WAR among MLB players selected in this slot
^ - number of MLB players selected in this slot

The tenth pick has been far better than the eighth and ninth picks.

Not surprisingly, the first pick is worth tanking for.

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 10

But even more so your team needs to have slots to add them. 

Or, if you put together an offense early, you need to bear in mind that your place in the standings is an illusion. I was good in HR and great in RBI and Runs when I added Jarrod Dyson, gaining something like six points in SB, which kept me at the top of the standings, and Dexter Fowler kept me there in the 17th, but with no outfield holes to fill all the other teams moved past me. An obvious mistake in hindsight, but at the time I looked strong.

Gaming out projected points in each category and getting that right seems a necessity now to get the right balance during the draft.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jun 5
So the lesson being big contributors in individual categories need to be tracked towards the end?
Kent Ostby Seadogs
Jun 5

Exactly. I tried to set up that situation, but failed, so my last two picks were futile. The best players for my spot barely moved the bar.
Justin's last two picks took him from sixth place or thereabouts and then to a commanding lead.

His stolen base pivot happened late and was excellently executed. Dee Gordon? No positive value on my sheet, but worth a lot of points for Justin in the end. As did Maybin, and his balls forward play for Wainwright's Ks despite his quals was brilliant.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jun 5

To plan to punt SB and end up with 10 points in SB certainly suggests a pivot.

The interesting thing is that with four more SB -- four -- Justin would have had 12 points. 

With four fewer -- four -- he would have had 8 points.

Efficiency is the key. Justin had 11 points in SO. The team ahead of him was 59 whiffs ahead of him. The team behind him was 7 whiffs behind him. The next team was 8 whiffs behind. The next team (Tim) was 12 whiffs behind.

With his 22nd pick, Justin added Cameron Maybin (15 SB). With his 23rd, he added Adam Wainwright (161 S0).

Well played.

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 5

I'm not sure what year next week's contest is, but in two weeks we have 1947. Whoo hoo.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jun 4

Once again I failed to close. The key to these drafts is utter efficiency. Punting a category or two from the get-go is essential. You do not want to be buying saves if you're going to finish last in saves. You don't want to take a .300 hitter if you're punting BA. My plan was to dump wins and strikeouts again. I figured with the new minimum innings rule if I got out in front anybody else trying it would back off.

My plan was to load up on hitting in the early rounds, taking one high innings starter and one closer, then adding five hitting categories focusing on the highest-ranked infielders I could find. In 2016 the hitting value at every position but catcher was equal to the outfielders. It worked fine. I was able to get into the catcher run in round 5-6, when five straight catchers went off the board, leaving teams that didn't get in with slim pickings. 

As things progressed I bounced between ninth and third as we cycled through rounds. I picked up a second closer, third pitcher in the 10th. I think I made a mistake in the 11th. I wanted Chris Devenski, Alex had pointed him out, to gain good innings, and when I made the pick there were groans all around. If I'd waited I wouldn't have gotten him. With the next four picks, all hitters, I started hovering near the top, my position strengthening. In the 17th Dexter Fowler propelled me into the lead, and I stayed there for a bit. I was feeling great.

But taking Devenski cost me an opportunity to take a bigger banger than was available later. It probably wasn't fatal, Devenski fit my profile, but it turned out I had other needs.

But now I had five pitcher slots to fill and one hitter slot. And I needed 500 innings. As we moved forward I did a decent job of adding pitchers but I saw my team drop from top 3 in HR and RBI to last in both. There was no way to stanch the flow. I needed a CI and the best available in the 17th was the same one who was there in the 21st, Danny Valencia. Not enough.

The tale of the standings shows that my early commitment to hitters came with lots of BA, and other teams had lots of batting average then. So while it looked competitive, when other teams were adding bad average hitters with power later my batting average advantage rose in comparison, giving me no additional points, and all the "money" I spent on HR and RBI was wasted. Very disappointing.

As discussed previously, my formula overvalues batting average. Even when I discount its value by 50 percent the high BA guys are too high. I was aware of this and after taking Daniel Murphy to start I didn't try to buy BA particularly, but my list definitely hurt me. The issue has to do with the retro stats. Those high batting averages are very valuable, but if you have too many of them you're being inefficient. In a prospective draft you damp down BA expectations by virtue of projections, which move always toward the mean. Retrospective BAs come without risk, except of having too many high ones. Next time I will make my rankings without any value to BA. 

I have stubbornly not tried to figure out draft targets, figuring I can play the draft dynamics, but in each of these I thought I had enough of something only to find out that I did not. That was a function of misreading the draft room, or really not anticipating what the values would be to finish in each category. 

Justin Mason said he went in thinking he would dump BA and SB, but he pivoted, made great choices down the wire, sacrificed a bunch of ERA points for Wins and Ks, and won strongly, if not really overwhelmingly. 

I've made the proposal that we add an 11th category, time elapsed, to help reward those who make quicker choices. It's a programming challenge, but it would be nice to get it done in 3 1/2 instead of 4 1/2 hours, but otherwise this is a great game. Interestingly, since everyone knew the player pool well, there was a lot more player banter than there was for some of the other drafts. A fun time, if a disappointing one.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jun 4

I'm still being stubborn about things and trying to find a way to blow off ERA and WHIP, max out in Wins, K's, and Saves with a solid offense. I'm like the little engine that could. I think I can, I think I can, I think I can......or I'm simply working hard to prove that I know the definition of insanity? Either way, I'm having fun with it!

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Jun 4