Ozzie Albies Atlanta Braves

Age: 22 (January 7, 1997) | 5' 8" | 165lbs. | Bats: Both 2B-157 PH-5
ATL A 2015 98 394 64 122 36 56 21 8 0 37 29 8 .310 .368 .404 8 13 .358 n/a
ATL AA 2016 82 330 56 106 33 57 22 7 4 33 21 9 .321 .391 .467 9 15 .376 n/a
ATL AAA 2016 56 222 27 55 19 39 11 3 2 20 9 4 .248 .307 .351 8 16 .290 n/a
ATL AAA 2017 97 411 67 117 28 90 21 8 9 41 21 2 .285 .330 .440 6 20 .342 n/a
ATL NL 2017 57 217 34 62 21 36 9 5 6 28 8 1 .286 .354 .456 9 15 .316 41/19/40 11 10
ATL NL 2018 158 639 105 167 36 116 40 5 24 72 14 3 .261 .305 .452 5 17 .285 39/21/40 25 25
ATL NL 2019 48 199 31 52 15 36 8 2 7 21 4 2 .261 .315 .427 7 17 .287 40/22/38 7 7
Career 3yrs 263 1055 170 281 72 188 57 12 37 121 26 6 .266 .317 .448 6 16 .292 n/a
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So I just realized that Albies' agent, David Meter, is the very same agent advising Craig Kimbrel!  Therefore in the same spring, he advises Albies to sign, IMO, one of the worst contracts EVER, undervaluing his client by $10s of millions, while advising Kimbrel to hold out for 6/$120, thereby overvaluing his other client by even more????

Either Mr. Meter cares only about his commissions or he is an imbecile.  Or both.  Wow.

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
Apr 13

Actually, I'm thinking of Roughned Odor, who signed a deal a few years ago at a similar amount of service time.  He will get $9.3M in his 5th year, $12.3M in his 6th and 7th, and $13.5M in his 8th year.  Given that Albies signed the deal several years later, I would expect those final arbitration and post arbitration years to be worth more than Odor's contract. 

Even Jose Altuve, who signed very early, before he was a batting champion or MVP was getting $9M in his 6th and 7th years.  Like you said, they had an incentive to sign him long-term and they did for ages 30-34, which will pay him $29M per season.  But, this year, he's still on the old deal and getting $9.5M, $2.5M more than Albies will make in 9 years.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Apr 13

I think the point we might be missing is that we're seeing the possibility of Roberto Alomar here and we're not seeing the possibility of Juan Samuel.

Yeah, he's young, but a .261 batting average and a .305 OBP doesn't exactly scream that he's the next Mike Trout.

I think we're not giving enough credence to the possibility that he doesn't turn out all that great.

Plus, and correct me if I'm wrong, but assume he looks like Roberto as he approaches those option years at around 27-28 years old. Doesn't the team have the incentive to give him another extension to keep him until he's say in his mid-30s, and he can use that leverage (which would be leverage he earned via performance) to have them convert those option years to part of the new deal?

Keith Prosseda andypro
Apr 13

Yes, it's all about those two option years. If his career continues in the direction it seems to be going, he won't be happy when those arrive.

Tim's right. 2022 just does not bode well.

Alex Patton Alex
Apr 13

What I can't believe is that he couldn't get the same $35M through his arbitration years without throwing in 2 extra years and then 2 more for $7M each as team options.  Those post arbitration years should have been $17 not $7.  The deal should be at least $70 for 7 and $105/9.  At those rates people would have said he could have gotten more, but they would have understood.

Eloy Jimenez is a tremendous prospect, but he got $43 through his arbitration years.  Albies already has a tremendous year under his belt, he got significantly less, and for a lot longer.  He got less than Brandon Lowe who got $24M just through his arb years.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Apr 13

When you compare it to the deal that Scott Kingery signed prior to a single at-bat, it looks dreadful, especially those two option years. On the other hand, he's now guaranteed financial security for him and his family. I get it, but in this case that doesn't change the fact that he sold short. It makes me wonder how important getting some bucks in the bank is prior to the likelihood of a labour interruption in 2022.

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Apr 13

Consider Dansby.  He looks like he is putting it back together this year, but the wrist injury he suffered is very real. What if he had been in Albies situation prior to the injury, good idea or bad idea for him.

The only questionable part to me are the last two option years.  I would want those to be mutual options at least or perhaps two-level options based on performance.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Apr 12

all of these players signing away their young entries into free agency
and deferring their first free agent period until their decline years is
foolish in most cases.

I disagree. I think from a purely mathematical analysis you're probably right, but there's a different consideration. Up until the point you get 'set for life' money, any deal that gives you 'set for life' money is a bargain.

The dollars they are risking by forfeiting a chance at a HUGE payday are, (once they get their 'set for life' money), post 'set for life' dollars. The risk they take by not signing these extensions now is that they never actually get to 'set for life' money.

An example, using 'Andy' terms, was if I won a million dollars and someone asked me if I wanted to flip a coin for it. If I win, I get 10 million dollars, if I lose, I lose my 1 million dollars. Even though the odds are heavily in my favor, I wouldn't do it because for me 1 million dollars is 'set for life' money and I wouldn't risk it.

Of course, in that scenario I'd try to find some rich guy to stake my coin flip. If I lose, the rich guy pays the 1 million dollars, and if I win, the rich guys get 5 million and so do I. Most rich guys would take 5-to-1 pot odds for their money. Which is kind of how the owners are playing it.

And of course, the final factor in some of these cases is not only the player's 'set for life' money, but his family considerations as well (mom, pop, etc). All in all, I like what I'm seeing because the market seems to be recognizing the importance of investing in talent, and because each player can define security as it applies to them.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Apr 12

The Davis contract is a complete non-sequitur.  Free agent deals compared to players under team control are completely different.  That said, all of these players signing away their young entries into free agency and deferring their first free agent period until their decline years is foolish in most cases.  Trout did it, but he agreed to a deal that put him at the market top during his two years he gave up.  Plus, he was still to be a free agent by age 29.  Albies's deal is terrible from a player perspective, unless he's hurt.  Granted, this year and next he'd likely be paid peanuts, but the next years he was likely to earn over $50M, if not $70 through arbitration.  Now, he's getting half that.  And Over at Fangraphs ZiPS says, through the four years of free agency (includes two team options), he's likely to be worth north of $280M, but it's safe to project $200M.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Apr 12

Has agreed to a contract extension that assures him of $35 million over the next seven years and will keep him on the Braves through 2027 if the club exercises its options.

An easy offer for the club to make and just about impossible for Ozzie to refuse.

Not to mention his agent, Jeff Passan writes at ESPN:

About a dozen large agencies are employed by a majority of players. These agencies, because of their size, do not depend on single commissions for the health of their businesses and thus are inured from the moral hazard that can influence those with fewer clients. At 5 percent commission, a $20 million extension means $1 million for an agent. The incentive, then, to do an extension can be strong for smaller shops -- Albies employs one in agent David Meter -- which also fear client-poaching from larger agencies. Even among the larger agencies, the concern over losing a client -- and a commission -- can compel extensions.

Passan also observes:

Now, for a maximum of $169 million, the Braves get 19 years of Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies. It's almost the exact same amount of money as another contract receiving attention for an entirely different reason. On Jan. 16, 2016, free-agent first baseman Chris Davis agreed with the Baltimore Orioles on a seven-year, $161 million contract. 


Alex Patton Alex
Apr 12