Eric Hosmer San Diego Padres

Age: 31 (October 24, 1989) | 6' 4" | 225lbs. | Bats: Left 1B-32 DH-5 PH-2
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
KC AL 2017 162 603 98 192 66 104 31 1 25 94 6 1 .318 .385 .498 10 15 .351 56/22/22 31 30
SD NL 2018 157 613 72 155 62 142 31 2 18 69 7 4 .253 .322 .398 9 21 .302 60/20/20 17 17
SD NL 2019 160 619 72 164 40 163 29 2 22 99 0 3 .265 .310 .425 6 24 .323 56/21/23 17 17
SD NL 2020 38 143 23 41 9 28 6 0 9 36 4 0 .287 .333 .517 6 18 .296 46/20/34 28 24
SD NL 2021 7 26 4 9 2 7 2 0 2 7 0 0 .346 .414 .654 7 24 .412 68/11/21 2 2
Career 11yrs 1410 5392 718 1501 473 1054 274 20 178 777 71 26 .278 .336 .436 8 18 .315 n/a
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Alex Patton Alex
Nov 24 '17

I wonder if WPA holds value over time.  As noted, it sounds dangerously close to "clutch," which tends to evaporate when looked at closely.

Mike Dean TMU2009
Nov 19 '17

Win Probability Added.  It's a product of the player's individual actions - based upon the win probability odds immediately prior to and immediately after he does something.  When the Dodgers took the lead in extra innings the player who put them up got a lot of WPA even though the team didn't win because the odds reversed.  But, when Correa or Altuve or Springer put the Astros back in front, well, he also added a lot of WPA.  It should sum zero across the league, unlike Win Shares, which should equal team wins (although there are 3 Win Shares for each win if I recall correctly).

Thus, in WPA, a 3-run HR up 5 runs is pretty irrelevant.  Whereas, a 3-run HR down 2 in the bottom of the 9th has a lot of WPA value.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Nov 19 '17

Remind me what WPA is?

Alex Patton Alex
Nov 18 '17

What he's saying is that WAR is too tangential.  We know the value of Runs to Wins.  We know the value of nearly every offensive activity as it relates to Runs, but not how it relates directly to Wins.  He thinks eliminating the directly relationship in WAR is a problem for truly valuing players.  I wish the article were longer and contained the underlying math.  WPA agrees with him that Altuve was way ahead of Judge.  But, by that same measure, which is based upon game situation performance and how much likelihood it adds to a team's win totals (but doesn't actually base it on the team's ultimate performance), Trout wins hands down.  Of the players with 5 bWAR or more, Trouts WPA was 5.189, Altuve 3.623, Betts 3.161, Lindor 2.484, Justin Upton 2.435, Judge 1.99, Correa 1.98, Schoop 1.753, Jose Ramirez 0.996, Kiermaier 0.86, Buxton .677, Simmons 0.546

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Nov 18 '17

Agreed.  So, if two guys did the EXACT SAME THING in 600 ABs each, and one guy's team wins 95 and the other guy's team wins 75, the first guy has a higher "win share" or whatever?  Odd.

Mike Dean TMU2009
Nov 18 '17

It's a very strange article, don't you think?

He's now saying there is such a thing as clutch. Or even stranger, there might might be: it hasn't been proven, and it hasn't been disproven.

As many times as Bill has explained it, I've never understood why the number of wins that a player theoretically contributes has to be pegged to the number of wins a team actually gets.

Mathematically. In a formula such as WAR or Win Shares.

Subjectively, I totally get it. If I had the vote, I'd tip in favor of players on winning teams, all other things being equal.

I'd factor in how the player performed in clutch situations. Whether or not coming through Close & Late often in a given year -- more often than the player did the rest of the time -- is just a matter of luck, the fact remains, he did come through.

That's good and would affect my vote.

If I put Eric Hosmer second on my ballot, I would be laughed out of the BWA now that ballots are made public.

Alex Patton Alex
Nov 18 '17

From this link (to Bill James' article about Altuve vs Judge) in the Altuve thread ...

... if you evaluate them by the specific relationship of Altuve’s runs to the Astros wins and Judge’s runs to the Yankees wins, then Altuve moves up and Judge moves down, and a significant gap opens up between—large enough, in fact, that Judge drops out of the #2 spot, dropping behind Eric Hosmer of Kansas City.

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Nov 18 '17

I'm just noticing how close the two season are, BABIP aside.

Alex Patton Alex
Nov 15 '17

Bryan Grosnick at BP, on the Free Agent 50:

Observations: My choice for the no. 3 spot between Hosmer and the next guy was the hardest decision of the whole exercise. Whether Hosmer deserves this spot is dependent on how much credence you give to his offensive improvement in 2017. Sure, he’s a Gold Glove-winning first baseman with a World Series ring, but to get a screw-you contract in free agency as a first-sacker, buddy, you better hit. Last year, Hosmer was pretty much the platonic ideal .300/.400/.500 hitter—it was .318/.385/.498, close enough—and if we were sure that was going to be his average production? No-brainer. But that was Hoz’s best offensive season, coming off one in which he was worth about half a win in WARP. He’s young and talented enough to think that the power might blossom out of K.C., and the ability to put him as a plus defender probably nudges him ahead of the next guy. His floor is high, but whatever team signs him would prefer he stay off it.

Prediction: Dave Dombrowski blows open the coffers and inks Hosmer to a tremendous contract, and his Red Sox career goes considerably better than Hanley Ramirez’s. Plenty of tears in Kansas City.

The next guy is J.D. Martinez.

Alex Patton Alex
Nov 14 '17