Eric Hosmer San Diego Padres

Age: 31 (October 24, 1989) | 6' 4" | 225lbs. | Bats: Left 1B-32 DH-5 PH-2
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
KC AL 2017 162 603 98 192 66 104 31 1 25 94 6 1 .318 .385 .498 10 15 .351 56/22/22 31 30
SD NL 2018 157 613 72 155 62 142 31 2 18 69 7 4 .253 .322 .398 9 21 .302 60/20/20 17 17
SD NL 2019 160 619 72 164 40 163 29 2 22 99 0 3 .265 .310 .425 6 24 .323 56/21/23 17 17
SD NL 2020 38 143 23 41 9 28 6 0 9 36 4 0 .287 .333 .517 6 18 .296 46/20/34 28 24
SD NL 2021 34 127 12 39 13 19 6 0 4 20 3 1 .307 .373 .449 9 13 .333 61/17/22 7 6
Career 11yrs 1437 5493 726 1531 484 1066 278 20 180 790 74 27 .279 .337 .435 8 18 .315 n/a
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Right - the assumption of ZIPS of everyone playing a perfect world amount of AB takes it out of the reality. As such, it is immediately flawed in premise.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Mar 10 '12
I don't think they ranked there. Trout was high, but if you put his ABs where they should be, he reverts to a fair price. The only problem with ZiPS is the ABs are in a perfect world (they do include injury risk). It assumes everyone plays as much as he is physically able. Trout starting in AAA requires a manual input.

Lawrie was slightly behind Longoria at 3B. Longoria was at least behind Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Bautista, Ellsbury, and Adrian Gonzales if not a secondbaseman or two if I recall. My data is at the office.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 10 '12
Brett Lawrie as the 4th best A.L. hitter, Mike Trout (5th) and Eric Hosmer (7th) make ZIPS extremely problematic.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 10 '12
Marcel doesn't really apply to players without 3 years of major league service. I prefer ZiPS. It uses MLEs and age progresses them for minor league seasons as part of the regression.

Oh, if I hadn't dropped Hosmer after 2009.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 9 '12
Tom Tango says Marcel is the most basic of projection systems, basically a weighted average with an age adjustment. The value is that it is automatic. Within hours of the season ending you can have Marcel projections for next year.

Tom Tango goes to great rhetorical lengths to undersell the smarts of Marcel, to make it seem like it's the work of a monkey trying to type As You Like It. This is disingenuous. And brilliant.

Marcel is a pure baseline projection. It is arithmetic. It uses weighted averages to project future production. But these aren't unsophisticated averages. they aren't guesses, they are the derivations of the same multiple regression formulas that all forecasters use.

So the challenge is to make predictions better than those we might see from some sophisticated (but unnuanced) statistical analysis. This is a different bar than the way Tom describes it, and that's better for him rhetorically. And it actually works better for us as a benchmark.

Marcel is the baseline of what we know about past player performance derived mathematically, and how it predicts future performance. It's mechanical, so if you can't beat Marcel, why are you trying?

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 9 '12
So can someone tell me the value of the Marcel regression model projections? I saw the projection for Hosmer, and, well, it made me go back and look at a lot of Marcel projections, and, well, I just don't get it I guess.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Mar 9 '12
Was Jimmie Foxx "Double-X"?
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 26 '12
Exactly. Which is why I think Scooter's observation is so useful. I've seen Howard play a lot and Hosmer play a little and one looks just a heck of a lot better in the field.

Actually, I don't think Howard's defense is X-rated. But it's R-rated.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 26 '12
Sorry, Alex, but you lead me to that now famous quote by Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in the Jacobellis v. Ohio (1964) obscenity case:

"I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description ["hard-core pornography"]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that."

I know bad defense when I see it, metrics be damned.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 26 '12
An excellent explanation for Hosmer's UZR. Defensive metrics, for now, are as hard to get a handle on as pornography.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 25 '12