Domingo Santana New York Gothams

Age: 28 (August 05, 1992) | 6' 5" | 220lbs. | Bats: Right OF-23 LF-9 RF-16 PH-33
MIL NL 2017 151 525 88 146 73 178 29 0 30 85 15 4 .278 .371 .505 12 29 .362 45/27/28 29 27
MIL AAA 2018 55 187 30 53 36 75 10 2 8 35 2 0 .283 .401 .487 16 33 .425 n/a
MIL NL 2018 85 211 21 56 20 77 14 1 5 20 1 1 .265 .328 .412 9 33 .386 49/23/28 5 5
SEA AL 2019 121 451 63 114 50 164 20 1 21 69 8 3 .253 .329 .441 10 32 .347 43/27/31 17 16
CLE AL 2020 24 70 6 11 13 25 3 0 2 12 0 0 .157 .298 .286 15 30 .209 60/18/22 -0 0
CLE AL 2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0.00 n/a 0 0
Career 8yrs 516 1680 233 428 209 612 87 2 77 244 30 12 .255 .341 .446 11 32 .350 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

The added intrigue for me with the second wild card is the desire to stay out of a one-and-done game and the potential for more one game playoffs.

Under the prior system, if the Yankees and Red Sox tied a tiebreaker would have determined seeding and nothing else. The Yankees have won the season series 11-8 so the Yankees would be the third seed and the Red Sox would be the fourth seed. But both teams would have been guaranteed a best-of-five series in the LDS.

Now if they tie, the Red Sox would head to New York for a Game 163. The winner would be the third seed; the loser would host the Twins (or perhaps someone else) in the Wild Card game.

It is somewhat different in the NL because barring a collapse by Diamondbacks, a Cub/Brewer playoff would have been a winner-take-all under the prior system, with the loser going home. A tie now is either winner-take-all (if the Rockies have a better record than both teams) or the same scenario as Red Sox/Yankees above (if the Rockies have a poorer record). Milwaukee is the probable host, since while the season series isn't resolved, it is unlikely that the Cubs would win the season series and tie the Brewers in overall record.

The potential three-way Cub/Brewer/Rockie tie is the most fun scenario remaining. .

Mike Gianella MikeG
Sep 20 '17

A hooking line in the fourth just clears the fence, stays just to the right of the foul pole, and remains the only run of the game. Brewers move to within one game of the Rocks for the second wild card.

The first wild cards are owned by the Diamondbacks and Yankees. Without the second wild card, the only suspense at this point would be who wins in two of the divisions (NL Central and AL East); otherwise it's all settled.

Alex Patton Alex
Sep 20 '17

We all believe this about our projections, but MARCEL beats or comes close to beating all of us nearly every year.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 1 '17

I just searched through the archives of the Stage 4 thread, hoping to find something that I had written about this, and didn't.

The basic notion is that bids know everything there is to know about a player, while projections only know what a player has actually done.

Injury risk, trade rumors, what your team's needs are based on its freeze list, what the league-wide inflation is based on all of the freezes -- these are things that the bid takes into account.

The better projections (such as Rotoman's) are far more sophisticated than a simple weighted average, but there are lots of things that they can't know. Such as injury risk (did the player play only 50 games last year because he was hurt, or suspended, or demoted to the minors?); such as your team's needs; such as the league's inflation.

Various projections for sale can be easily altered to take these other factors into account. The ones that we sell, for instance.

A lot of people do that. While others simply change the bids as they try to think of every last thing there is to know about a player.

It's a bit glib of me to say one is a prediction and the other is a bet. Better to say if you base your bet on the dollar value of somebody else's projection, it's somebody else's bet.

Alex Patton Alex
Feb 1 '17

At the risk of repetition, would you offer another of your "projections are predictions, bids are bets" articles.  I have never seen this.  Is this a tactic of separating raw performance from a league's prevailing market tendencies to increase net return?

bill fries diehard
Feb 1 '17

Thanks for the explanation - it is more interesting & more useful that the bids don't match the projections necessarily.  Both Santana & Saunders seem to be injury risks but both should play close to full-time if healthy.  I agree that Santana is a better bet to outperform the projections than Saunders, given his StatCast data & especially if he can hit more fly balls like he started to do in the second half. Both hitters hit more HR on the road in 2016, which is surprising considering their home parks.  I'd rather have Santana but - as the bids show - the market prices may make Saunders the better value.

Eric Valdi farley
Jan 31 '17

Projections -- all of which, when you come right down to it, are 3-2-1 -- are neither tepid nor rosy. They are what they are: weighted averages.

The question is do you unweight them with your bids?

The higher bid in the Guide for Santana implies the projection, reasonable though it may be, isn't rosy enough.

The bid for Saunders implies the projection might be a tad too rosy.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 31 '17

I obviously worship at the altar of "bids are bets", but this usually instructs me to pay less for a player who has a rosy projection, and not the other way around.

If I have a tepid projection on a player, it's usually a bad sign for that player.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 31 '17

I wonder if this isn't a good place for my annual "Projections are predictions, bids are bets."

Even if you don't change your projection for Santana, Peter, aren't you going to keep a higher bid on him?

Farley's right that the projections for these two players in the Guide are quite similar. But the chance that Santana will have a breakout and go way past his projection is greater.

At least that's what the bid in the Guide is saying to me, and that's what my AP4 bid in the software is going to say.

If I thought it was the other way -- that Saunders had more upside, no matter what the 3-2-1 projections says -- I'd give him the higher bid limit.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 31 '17

Process is important. The Guide mostly features 3-2-1 projections, with some aging stuff, for the projecitons.

After we finish the Guide, I dig deeper. So my interventions matter more. For good or for worse. I hope, every year, for more good.

I think historically the tweaked and updated projections are much better, as they should be. They're better than ZIPS, for instance, because they project real life, rather than something else.

But I also respect the consumer. Please let me know about your experience. It's impossible to be a perfect predictor, but our goal is to find advantages in some situations. Please let us know how it works out.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 31 '17