Dallas Keuchel Free Agent

Age: 31 (January 1, 1988) | 6' 3" | 205lbs. | Throws: Left P-34
Tm Lg YEAR W L SV Hld G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP Rating BB/9 SO/9 BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
HOU AL 2015 20 8 0 0 33 33 232.0 185 17 51 216 2.48 1.02 1.02 2.0 8.4 .277 62/19/20 39 35
HOU AL 2016 9 12 0 0 26 26 168.0 168 20 48 144 4.55 1.29 1.32 2.6 7.7 .310 57/19/24 4 8
HOU A- 2017 1 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 3 0 0 5 1.80 0.60 0.60 0.0 0.0 .248 n/a
HOU AA 2017 0 0 0 0 1 1 3.0 2 0 1 3 0.00 1.00 0.83 3.0 9.0 .268 n/a
HOU AL 2017 14 5 0 0 23 23 145.1 116 15 47 125 2.91 1.12 1.11 2.9 7.7 .262 67/15/18 24 21
HOU AL 2018 12 11 0 0 34 34 204.1 211 18 58 153 3.74 1.32 1.31 2.6 6.7 .313 54/22/24 11 13
HOU AL 2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 n/a -0 -0
ATL NL 2019 3 2 0 0 5 5 32.0 32 4 10 17 3.09 1.31 1.34 2.8 4.8 .277 61/20/19 3 3
Career 7yrs 76 57 0 0 181 172 1135.0 1083 105 314 924 3.53 1.23 1.23 2.5 7.3 .300 n/a
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And the worst part for him is that after June 1, when there is no longer any compensation for signing him, he becomes a 3 month pitcher after going to extended spring training or wherever they decide to park him to get his reps in.  That means if he considered himself a $20M a year pitcher for 4 years, he's only a $10M pitcher this year.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
May 8

And the qualifying offer, of course, is what's hurting him more than anything else. This close to the draft, no one's going to make him any offer.

Alex Patton Alex
May 8

He seems to believe he is pulling a Yasmani Grandal and standing up for future players.  But he needs to check the history.  Grandal took a lesser one-year deal to return to free agency next year.  Dallas is simply living in an alternate reality.  He must have believed Boras so much last offseason that he now can't be talked down from the ledge, even by Boras.

Sad to see, as the Astros would have been happy to bring him back at something near the qualifying offer, even after the season started.

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
May 8
In the absence of collusion . . . fair market value is what the market will give you.
Mike Dean TMU2009
May 7

When Boras tells you to settle and you think you can get more money then you need to question your perception. I hope he gets a deal he likes in June and hasn't completely killed his career by taking most of a year off.

Scott Boras has even advised him to settle and get back on the field. So
why is Keuchel still available? “I told [Boras] no on numerous deals
because it’s about principle. It’s about fair market value. And I wasn’t
getting that.”

Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 7

Not a good year to have your hitters on the wrong side of a platoon. Aron Gleeman today at Baseball Prospectus:

A lower percentage of games have been started by lefties so far this season than in any of the previous 16 seasons. Not only is this year’s 25.4 percent the lowest rate of lefty starters since 2002, it follows a 2018 season in which 30.3 percent of games were started by lefties for the third-highest rate of the past 20 seasons. If this year’s rate remains relatively stable for the next five months, approximately 225 fewer games will be started by lefties compared to 2018. That would work out to a total decrease of more than 1,100 innings thrown by lefty starters. It’s almost as if a half-dozen full-time lefty starters just vanished. And in the cases of Dallas Keuchel and Gio González, that isn’t far off.

Alex Patton Alex
Apr 26

Arrieta and Greg Holland are additional examples.

John Thomas Roll2
Mar 14

It was merely observational and not a clinical study, but I believe the pitchers who signed late last year pitched much worse than their projection.  Cobb was the one I remember most, but Lynn also had a bad start.  Even if he signs, he will likely come back worse than expected.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 14

As for pricing, you can probably lower his price from those above. Earned 11 in 4x4 and 13 in 5x5 and will be getting a late start on the season so will lose 1/8th of his starts and innings.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Mar 14

Unsigned Keuchel would be handled differently in the two leagues I was in last year.
PCL -- Not auctionable or draftable. Only available in FAAB once he signed.
Home League -- Not auctionable, but draftable so likely the first or second pick of the rotation draft (with Kimbrel).

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Mar 14