Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies

Age: 27 (October 16, 1992) | 6' 3" | 220lbs. | Bats: Left OF-152 RF-152 DH-2 PH-4
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
WAS A 2011 72 258 49 82 44 61 17 1 14 46 19 5 .318 .417 .554 15 20 .372 n/a
WAS AA 2011 0 129 14 33 15 26 7 1 3 12 7 2 .256 .329 .395 10 18 .294 n/a
WAS AFL 2011 25 93 17 31 11 22 6 2 6 26 4 1 .333 .404 .634 11 21 .385 n/a
WAS AAA 2012 21 74 8 18 9 14 4 1 1 3 1 1 .243 .325 .365 11 17 .288 n/a
WAS NL 2012 139 533 98 144 56 120 26 9 22 59 18 6 .270 .340 .477 9 20 .310 45/23/33 24 23
WAS A+ 2013 2 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 .500 .600 1.50 20 20 .500 n/a
WAS AA 2013 2 7 3 2 2 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 .286 .444 .571 22 33 .500 n/a
WAS NL 2013 118 424 71 116 61 94 24 3 20 58 11 4 .274 .368 .486 12 19 .306 47/20/33 23 21
WAS A+ 2014 2 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 .750 .833 1.50 33 0 .667 n/a
WAS AA 2014 3 10 4 6 3 1 1 0 3 7 2 2 .600 .692 1.60 23 8 .500 n/a
WAS NL 2014 100 352 41 96 38 104 10 2 13 32 2 2 .273 .344 .423 10 27 .352 44/22/35 13 12
WAS NL 2015 153 521 118 172 124 131 38 1 42 99 6 4 .330 .460 .649 19 20 .369 39/22/39 43 42
WAS NL 2016 147 506 84 123 108 117 24 2 24 86 21 10 .243 .373 .441 17 19 .264 40/17/42 25 23
WAS NL 2017 111 420 95 134 68 99 27 1 29 87 4 2 .319 .413 .595 14 20 .356 40/22/38 28 28
WAS NL 2018 159 550 103 137 130 169 34 0 34 100 13 3 .249 .393 .496 19 24 .289 40/22/38 29 28
PHI NL 2019 157 573 98 149 99 178 36 1 35 114 15 3 .260 .372 .510 15 26 .313 38/24/38 30 28
Career 8yrs 1084 3879 708 1071 684 1012 219 19 219 635 90 34 .276 .385 .512 15 22 .317 n/a
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I'm wondering if the Machado signing ends up prolonging Harper's search for a perfect contract, rather than hastening it.

Because now it seems as if Harper HAS to have a bigger number than Machado.

And given their comparative value over the years, particularly that Machado's career is a lot less "lumpy" in terms of WAR ... The market might just not be ready to give him as much money. And I could see him holding out a lot longer trying to get it.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Feb 20

A return to DC has to be very unlikely at this point, right? I read one blog that asserted the $300 million offer is already off the table. The forensics on he and Machado will be fascinating.

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
Feb 14

Kudo's to Mike Gianella for this tweet. "Bryce Harper saw his shadow, which means we’re having six more weeks of free agency"

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Feb 2

Was it a little more than a year ago that we, not to mention the players, were excited about the next-year class of free agents? How naive we both were. Who would've thunk this is what we'd be reading now.

The Cubs, the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Giants, the Cardinals, the Braves, the Rangers and the Angels — all have apparently passed on making a bid for Harper and Machado. Each franchise is owned by a wealthy man (or family) in a wealth-laden sport and all could presumably find a place in the lineup for one of these young stars. And yet for the second season in a row, at a time of the off-season when the best free agents typically would have already signed handsome new contracts, most owners have tucked away their wallets and claimed to need no more talent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/29/sports/baseball/harper-machado-baseball.html

Alex Patton Alex
Feb 2

What production should you expect from an 8-10 year contract for a star?  The data so far say about 4 fWAR annually and a wRC of 125-140, at least for the first 1/2 of the deal.  Took the  summary below following from a baseball blog, all underlying data from Fangraphs...

Summary: 

-  If the guy is a stud at 26 and stays healthy, upper ceiling is ARod's first contract below, and the gamble pays off handsomely.

- Downside with injury or subppar performance is an albatross contract ala Pujols, less than 1.0 fWAR annually and impossible to unload.

- If I am a GM (owner) I must decide whether paying $30+ million for 4 fWAR and 130-140 wRC+ is a bet I can really afford to lose.  Maybe I get young Arod returns and maybe I get older ARod or Pujols returns.  At least if I take the plunge on Harper or Machado, then age is on my side.

Robinson Canoe (5 years into deal)

Stat Line: 20.7 fWAR & avg wRC+ 128


Albert Pujols (Seven Years Into Deal)

Stat Line: 6.07 fWAR avg wRC+ 107


Alex Rodriguez (First Deal)

Stat Line: 79.8 fWAR & avg wRC+ 150


Alex Rodriguez (Second Deal) (only eight Years Completed)

Stat Line: 22.3 fWAR & avg wRC+ 119


Giancarlo Stanton (Four Years Into Deal)

Stat Line: 17.2 fWAR & avg wRC+ 140


Joey Votto (Four Years Into Deal)

Stat Line: 22.5 fWAR & avg wRC+ 157


Todd Helton (9-year deal then 2 more years, 11 years total)

Stat Line: 41.5 fWAR & avg wRC+ 146

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
Dec 31 '18

Interestingly,  Machado switched from Boras to Dan Lozano back in 2011.  Here is the back story...

https://theathletic.com/703532/2018/12/09/rosenthal-agent-wars-between-scott-boras-and-dan-lozano-are-a-huge-part-of-the-harper-machado-pursuits/

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
Dec 28 '18

Are they both represented by Boras?

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 28 '18

So today I read that neither Harper nor Machado is "enamored" of playing in Philly, which I translate as "c'mon, show me that crazy money and get this market rocketing up!"

At present both seem to have the same strategy:  get Philly and Chicago to bid up NY and LA.  Fascinating to watch.

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
Dec 28 '18

Five-year scans of fielding:

FRAA (BP): 0.4, 7.2, 4.1, -3.4, -12.1

Def (Fangraphs): -3.5, -10.2, -1.7, -2.0, -18.1

dWAR (B-R): -0.5, 0.4, -0.9, 0.0, -3.2

All give thumbs-down to his D last season.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 26 '18

Now, let's take out the age component and just compare all players during Harper's 7-year career from 2012-2018. In that time Harper is 20th in bWAR.

Trout nearly laps the field with 63.8.  But, Cano, Goldschmidt, Donaldson, and Beltre have more than 10 WAR more than Harper.  Votto, Posey, Betts, Simmons, Altuve, Mahcado, Arenado, Stanton, Cain, Freeman, McCutchen, Kinsler, Miggy, and Rizzo are all ahead too.

Harper does better by oWAR, but he's still 15th. Trout, Cano, McCutchen, Altuve, Goldschmidt, Votto, Miggy, Donaldson, Posey, Beltre, Freeman, Stanton, Matt Carpenter, and Edwin Encarnacion all beat Harper.

What if we use Harper's best possible arbitrary endpoints and only use 2015-2018, which starts with Harper's MVP season.  He's 11th.  It's Trout, Altuve, Betts, Votto, Goldschmidt, Bryant, Machado, Donaldson, JD Martinez, Yelich and Harper by oWAR.  The same search by bWAR and he's 23rd.

He's a great player, and for his age, he's impressive.  But, he's far from historically great.  Among similar era players, not only is Machado his equal or better, but so is Betts, Lindor, Altuve, Stanton, Freeman, Arenado, even Yelich and Simmons.  And, none of those guys are so significantly younger or older than Harper to make it matter, unless he turns into Trout the next three years, but the same could be said of any of them as well. And, considering he's done it twice, rather than only once, I'd take Betts as the most likely.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Dec 26 '18