Brian Dozier Free Agent

Age: 33 (May 15, 1987) | 5' 11" | 200lbs. | Bats: Right 2B-5 DH-1 PH-5
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
MIN R 2009 53 218 38 77 23 26 17 0 0 14 3 0 .353 .410 .431 9 11 .395 n/a
MIN A 2010 39 151 24 42 16 16 7 1 0 17 6 1 .278 .347 .338 9 10 .311 n/a
MIN A+ 2010 93 350 44 96 44 41 11 1 5 42 10 4 .274 .350 .354 11 10 .294 n/a
MIN A+ 2011 49 180 32 58 27 20 11 5 2 22 13 4 .322 .407 .472 13 10 .350 n/a
MIN AA 2011 0 311 60 99 28 46 22 7 7 34 11 7 .318 .384 .502 8 13 .357 n/a
MIN AFL 2011 26 108 27 32 11 20 8 0 3 22 4 0 .296 .361 .454 9 17 .341 n/a
MIN AAA 2012 48 181 15 42 14 34 11 1 2 17 3 2 .232 .291 .337 7 17 .276 n/a
MIN AL 2012 84 316 33 74 16 58 11 1 6 33 9 2 .234 .271 .332 5 17 .267 42/21/38 7 6
MIN AL 2013 147 558 72 136 51 120 33 4 18 66 14 7 .244 .312 .414 8 19 .278 38/21/41 18 16
MIN AL 2014 156 598 112 145 89 129 33 1 23 71 21 7 .242 .345 .416 13 18 .269 37/20/43 25 26
MIN AL 2015 157 628 101 148 61 148 39 4 28 77 12 4 .236 .307 .444 9 21 .261 33/23/44 21 21
MIN AL 2016 155 615 104 165 61 138 35 5 42 99 18 2 .268 .340 .546 9 20 .280 36/16/48 35 33
MIN AL 2017 152 617 106 166 78 141 30 4 34 93 16 7 .269 .357 .496 11 20 .297 38/19/43 30 28
MIN AL 2018 104 410 65 93 46 96 21 2 16 52 8 3 .227 .307 .405 10 21 .256 40/15/45 12 12
LAD NL 2018 47 143 16 26 24 33 9 0 5 20 4 0 .182 .300 .350 14 19 .196 38/21/40 3 2
WAS NL 2019 135 416 54 99 61 105 20 0 20 50 3 4 .238 .340 .430 13 22 .271 35/21/44 10 10
NYM NL 2020 7 15 1 2 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 .133 .188 .133 6 31 .200 20/20/60 -2 -1
Career 9yrs 1144 4316 664 1054 488 973 231 21 192 561 105 36 .244 .325 .441 10 20 .270 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

Not my greatest bid. But props to Peter for his projection!

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 6 '17

I suspect I will never own him, despite that lovely scan.  He always seems to race by my number, although I note that AP's 2017 4x4 number is so conservative that I would have had no chance, anyway, even with inflation.

Mike Dean TMU2009
Dec 5 '17

Some time this season or last, I read about hits gained and hits lost by the shift and saw that it was essentially hit neutral overall, perhaps even slightly to the hits gained side.  But, the idea is that hits to the pull-side have a higher SLG, so the hits gained actually led to a lower OPS.  Can't remember where I read this.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Dec 5 '17

When I hear proposals to restrict the shift, my reaction is, "What?"  Learn to hit the other way.  Learn to bunt.  No sympathy.

Mike Dean TMU2009
Dec 5 '17

What a nice year he had. Which flew under the radar. Ours anyway.

According to The Bill James Handbook, Dozier had 21 hits taken away by the shift this year. That's a lot; if he had those hits back, he'd have hit .301.

But...

He gained 24 hits by going against the shift.

So in fact, thanks to the shift, he gained five points in batting average.

Baseball Info Solutions claims to have an objective way of determining hits lost and hits gained. "We know the likelihood of an out being made on every ball in play based on where and how hard it is hit."

I imagine a rival stat service, such as whoever collects data for Statcast, might poke a few holes in that claim, or at least arrive at somewhat different number for hits lost and gained.

But let's say this information is essentially correct.

A whole lot of hits are being lost to the shift. The Handbook (very annoyingly) doesn't add up the totals for both leagues, but two full pages are needed to list the players who lost more hits than they gained; not quite half a page lists players who gained more hits than they lost. The biggest losers are  Mitch Moreland and Anthony Rizzo, who each lost 22 hits (net). Josh Reddick is the biggest gainer with five.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 5 '17

I did this in my home league one year. Finished 9th in average (out of 12 teams). Finished fourth overall, but with a point total that would have won in some years.

The only potential drawback to the strategy is that you have to make sure to get players with job security. A .230 hitter can be on the periphery depending on his skill set.

I like to grab OBP guys if I do this.

It also works better in only. In mixed leagues you lose out too much in runs/RBI to make it work.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 9 '17

Batting average is the best category to dump because the low average guys are usually not sexy to begin with, and even if you refuse to pay for BA, you won't necessarily finish last. 

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 9 '17

Dead last

Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 9 '17

Where does he finish in batting average?

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 9 '17

Ran LABR AL against the PFM (Baseball Prospectus' auction valuation tool) and Larry comes out in first, followed by Colton/Wolf and then me. FWIW, I don't use the PFM for my auctions. I could easily put together a projected first place team every time if I did.

Larry's offense isn't as good as you'd think, but the pitching is strong. But it looks like PECOTA hasn't downgraded Price and believes in a big bounce back from Keuchel. If Price doesn't pitch and if Keuchel only bounces back somewhat, there goes that projection.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 9 '17