Brandon Nimmo New York Mets

Age: 28 (March 27, 1993) | 6' 3" | 207lbs. | Bats: Left OF-55 LF-22 CF-44 RF-10 PH-16 PR-1
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
NYM A+ 2017 5 18 4 4 5 4 2 0 1 4 0 0 .222 .391 .500 22 17 .231 n/a
NYM AAA 2017 42 163 23 37 33 49 12 1 3 17 0 0 .227 .364 .368 17 25 .306 n/a
NYM NL 2017 69 177 26 46 33 60 11 1 5 21 2 0 .260 .379 .418 15 28 .360 43/24/33 5 5
NYM A+ 2018 2 6 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .333 .500 .333 25 0 .333 n/a
NYM AAA 2018 1 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .500 .600 .500 0 0 .500 n/a
NYM NL 2018 140 433 77 114 80 140 28 8 17 47 9 6 .263 .404 .483 15 26 .351 45/22/33 17 18
NYM A+ 2019 5 14 1 3 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 .214 .353 .357 18 12 .250 n/a
NYM AAA 2019 10 35 10 7 8 8 2 0 1 6 3 0 .200 .364 .343 18 18 .231 n/a
NYM NL 2019 69 199 34 44 46 71 11 1 8 29 3 0 .221 .375 .407 18 28 .293 39/23/38 4 5
NYM NL 2020 55 186 33 52 33 43 8 3 8 18 1 2 .280 .404 .484 15 19 .326 47/20/32 18 19
NYM NL 2021 4 14 2 6 5 3 2 0 0 1 1 0 .429 .579 .571 26 16 .545 64/27/9 1 1
Career 6yrs 369 1082 184 282 203 337 61 13 39 122 16 8 .261 .393 .449 15 25 .342 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

In BA earlier this week... 

In recent years, Baseball America has surveyed scouts covering spring training on which players they think are headed for standout seasons based on what they’re seeing. In 2019, David Fletcher, Brandon Lowe, Sandy Alcantara, Domingo German and Chris Paddack were among the players scouts identified before they went on to have breakout seasons. In 2020, Brandon Nimmo, Zac Gallen, Tony Gonsolin, James Karinchak and Tyler Matzek all were mentioned and made good on those predictions, even after a more than four-month gap between when camps shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic and Opening Day.

Click on the 2019 and 2020 links to see who else they were impressed by

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 19
Percentiles: Barrel 48 EV 23 xBA 50 xSLG 50 SO 67 BB 90 speed 77
Alex Patton Alex
Mar 15

I don't look at the projections at all when I'm making my initial prices. The prices are based on what players have cost in recent years, what they earned, and how this year's expectations compare.

Then the initial round of projections are based on a mechanical algorithm that uses information from the last 2 or 3 years of stats.

Then I compare and jigger the prices and the projections as the winter moves along, based on playing time issues, injuries, and also places where the algorithm doesn't get the whole picture. I'm not  sure how Nimmo ended up with a projected .230 BA. A closer look tells me he should hit about .250, but in fewer at bats because the Mets roster is getting crowded and Nimmo has mostly been better against righties (and because he walks so much). 

A revised projection and slightly lower price will be in the updates released next week.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 22

Very, very good question.

Speaking for AP4, you are.

I've always made a distinction between projections and bids, contending one is a prediction, the other is a bet. When I enter my preliminary bids in the software, I spend a lot more time looking at the five-year salary scans than I do the projections. Then I consider Team and Sort, which tell me what team the player is playing for this year (even when players don't change teams I've been known to forget over the winter) and his expected place in the batting order. For many players I also look at the splits and the advanced metrics (some of which are displayed as the first comment in each thread), then I look at the age, and then I place my bet as AP4.

With each update, AP4 keeps changing. So do PK5 and MF5. By the end of spring training, our bids add up almost exactly to standard Roto budgets: 12 AL or NL teams, $260 per team.

Peter has the harder assignment of continuing to refine his projections during spring training and in Brandon Nimmo's case I'm pretty sure he will project a higher batting average than .230. If he continues to think $14 is the right bid limit, I imagine he thinks Nimmo will hit in the neighborhood of .260. I think he'll hit higher than that, which is why my bid is a little higher. I'm not predicting that he's going to hit .280 again, or even a little higher, but I'm betting that he might.

Alex Patton Alex
Feb 22

New subscriber....( due to print mag not published )....Question....I am comparing Nimmo projections to Joc Pederson....The projection has Pederson significantly out performing Nimmo in HR...RBI...AVG.....( SB and R both only a difference of 4 )....but Alex bid for Nimmo is $16 versus only $10 for Pederson......Peter bid for Nimmo is $14 versus $11 for Pederson ?????......Pederson clearly out performs in the projections.....but why the bid discpencies?......Am I looking at this correctly ?

James Oleck omnipotent
Feb 22
Fangraphs: EV 87.2 HardHit 32% HR/FB 17% LD%+ 94 Pull 35% Cent 30% Oppo 35%
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '20