Brandon Nimmo New York Mets

Age: 27 (March 27, 1993) | 6' 3" | 207lbs. | Bats: Left OF-55 LF-22 CF-44 RF-10 PH-16 PR-1
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
NYM AAA 2016 97 392 72 138 46 73 25 8 11 61 7 8 .352 .423 .541 10 17 .411 n/a
NYM NL 2016 32 73 12 20 6 20 1 0 1 6 0 0 .274 .338 .329 8 25 .365 42/30/28 1 2
NYM A+ 2017 5 18 4 4 5 4 2 0 1 4 0 0 .222 .391 .500 22 17 .231 n/a
NYM AAA 2017 42 163 23 37 33 49 12 1 3 17 0 0 .227 .364 .368 17 25 .306 n/a
NYM NL 2017 69 177 26 46 33 60 11 1 5 21 2 0 .260 .379 .418 15 28 .360 43/24/33 5 5
NYM A+ 2018 2 6 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .333 .500 .333 25 0 .333 n/a
NYM AAA 2018 1 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .500 .600 .500 0 0 .500 n/a
NYM NL 2018 140 433 77 114 80 140 28 8 17 47 9 6 .263 .404 .483 15 26 .351 45/22/33 17 18
NYM A+ 2019 5 14 1 3 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 .214 .353 .357 18 12 .250 n/a
NYM AAA 2019 10 35 10 7 8 8 2 0 1 6 3 0 .200 .364 .343 18 18 .231 n/a
NYM NL 2019 69 199 34 44 46 71 11 1 8 29 3 0 .221 .375 .407 18 28 .293 39/23/38 4 5
NYM NL 2020 55 186 33 52 33 43 8 3 8 18 1 2 .280 .404 .484 15 19 .326 47/20/32 18 19
Career 5yrs 365 1068 182 276 198 334 59 13 39 121 15 8 .258 .390 .448 15 26 .339 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

I don't look at the projections at all when I'm making my initial prices. The prices are based on what players have cost in recent years, what they earned, and how this year's expectations compare.

Then the initial round of projections are based on a mechanical algorithm that uses information from the last 2 or 3 years of stats.

Then I compare and jigger the prices and the projections as the winter moves along, based on playing time issues, injuries, and also places where the algorithm doesn't get the whole picture. I'm not  sure how Nimmo ended up with a projected .230 BA. A closer look tells me he should hit about .250, but in fewer at bats because the Mets roster is getting crowded and Nimmo has mostly been better against righties (and because he walks so much). 

A revised projection and slightly lower price will be in the updates released next week.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman

Very, very good question.

Speaking for AP4, you are.

I've always made a distinction between projections and bids, contending one is a prediction, the other is a bet. When I enter my preliminary bids in the software, I spend a lot more time looking at the five-year salary scans than I do the projections. Then I consider Team and Sort, which tell me what team the player is playing for this year (even when players don't change teams I've been known to forget over the winter) and his expected place in the batting order. For many players I also look at the splits and the advanced metrics (some of which are displayed as the first comment in each thread), then I look at the age, and then I place my bet as AP4.

With each update, AP4 keeps changing. So do PK5 and MF5. By the end of spring training, our bids add up almost exactly to standard Roto budgets: 12 AL or NL teams, $260 per team.

Peter has the harder assignment of continuing to refine his projections during spring training and in Brandon Nimmo's case I'm pretty sure he will project a higher batting average than .230. If he continues to think $14 is the right bid limit, I imagine he thinks Nimmo will hit in the neighborhood of .260. I think he'll hit higher than that, which is why my bid is a little higher. I'm not predicting that he's going to hit .280 again, or even a little higher, but I'm betting that he might.

Alex Patton Alex

New subscriber....( due to print mag not published )....Question....I am comparing Nimmo projections to Joc Pederson....The projection has Pederson significantly out performing Nimmo in HR...RBI...AVG.....( SB and R both only a difference of 4 )....but Alex bid for Nimmo is $16 versus only $10 for Pederson......Peter bid for Nimmo is $14 versus $11 for Pederson ?????......Pederson clearly out performs in the projections.....but why the bid discpencies?......Am I looking at this correctly ?

James Oleck omnipotent
Fangraphs: EV 87.2 HardHit 32% HR/FB 17% LD%+ 94 Pull 35% Cent 30% Oppo 35%
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '20