Blake Snell San Diego Padres

Age: 28 (December 04, 1992) | 6' 4" | 200lbs. | Throws: Left P-31
Tm Lg YEAR W L SV Hld G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP Rating BB/9 SO/9 BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
TAM AAA 2017 5 0 0 0 7 7 44.0 43 5 15 61 2.66 1.32 1.32 3.1 12.5 .376 n/a
TAM AL 2017 5 7 0 0 24 24 129.0 113 15 59 119 4.05 1.33 1.28 4.1 8.3 .286 44/18/38 4 7
TAM AL 2018 21 5 0 0 31 31 180.1 112 16 64 221 1.90 0.98 0.93 3.2 11.0 .250 45/19/36 44 39
TAM AL 2019 6 8 0 0 23 23 107.0 96 14 40 147 4.29 1.27 1.28 3.4 12.4 .346 39/25/36 6 10
TAM AL 2020 4 2 0 0 11 11 50.0 42 10 18 63 3.24 1.20 1.32 3.2 11.3 .291 49/23/28 17 18
SD NL 2021 0 0 0 0 3 3 10.0 9 1 8 17 4.50 1.70 1.45 7.2 15.3 .417 44/24/32 -1 -0
Career 6yrs 42 30 0 0 111 111 565.1 465 61 240 665 3.26 1.25 1.20 3.8 10.6 .303 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

He went for $35 in our league (estimated inflation pre-draft was 28%).  We really really wanted him and had allocated $30 which we thought would be plenty, and we weren't even close.  And I'm already having non-buyer's remorse.

Doron Scharf jerome

Anyone want to confess to bidding $34? :-)

Maybe "mistake" is too harsh ... but I felt he was "must have" for me ... which means, if the player is any good at all, "overpay" ... which, by definition, is NOT "overpay" ... ie. someone else was willing to pay $34 ...

Bottom line: this is the year!!!

(Side Note: today is "game 7" :-))

Howard Lynch LynchMob

"How is this guy going for $35?" asked my partner.  I wasn't sure until I looked carefully at the screen:

Lynchmob.

This is the year!!!  Tingler lets him go the distance in game 7.


Mike Landau ML-
Percentiles: FBv 80 FBs 77 CBs 41 Barrel 17 EV 58 xSLG 50 xERA 58
Alex Patton Alex
Mar 15

The thing is the FIP contains the information you need on LOB% without looking at LOB and since it looks like ERA is easily understandable. LOB% is great for explaining why ERA doesn't equal FIP, but it by itself it doesn't tell you how much was changed. The components in FIP do that. Good call.

I think having both FIP and xFIP is helpful, because xFIP doesn't assume that HR/FB is going to regress to normal. Some pitchers allow more homers. xFIP shows that.

Good job!

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 6

Thus the best LOB percents one year regressed the next year (with the exception of Verlander) and ERAs went up a lot or a little, depending on the regression. Makes sense.

FIP and LOB% were my finalists for the Fangraphs stats at the start of the comment threads. I'm thinking maybe I picked the wrong one.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 6

Top 10 highest LOB% in 2018(min 120 IP), their ERA increase/decrease in 2019, and their 2019 LOB%

Snell 88.0% +2.40  71.6%

Stripling 86.1% +0.45  72.8%

Verlander 85.3% +0.06  88.4%

Fiers 84.2% +0.34  78.5%

Freeland 82.8% +3.92  62.1%

Nola 82.5% +1.50  76.8%

Sale 82.5% +2.29  66.7%

Barria 82.1% +3.01  68.6%

DeGrom 82.0% +0.73  81.8%

Scherzer 81.3% +.039   78.7%

van wilhoite LVW
Jan 5

Headed to the Padres for four players -- Patino, Mejia, Hunt, and Wilcox.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Dec 28 '20
Fangraphs: FB 51% FBv 95.1 EV 87.8 HardHit 37% HR/FB 29% LD%+ 104 FIP 4.35
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '20