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The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.
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DFA'd by the Rays. Extreme example of a late bloomer wilting quickly.
No. 2 on Jayson Starks's list at The Athletic of the five best players of the '10s.
"Four reasons why some regression is likely: PA will be tough to repeat; HR, PX, hr/f, BA all outperformed expected stats; Spd continued fade; h% could tick down a point or two. All that said, this is still an enviable skill set marked by outstanding BPX..."
Yep. The new Baseball Forecaster is just out, saying a lot in a little.
“Grisham may have been the most improved player in baseball last year,” said Jim Callis, a senior editor at MLB Pipeline. “He looked terrible in the Arizona Fall League after the 2018 season, then made some swing changes and ended 2019 as a regular on a playoff team. He’s interesting but I would be lying if I said I knew exactly what to make of him. If the improvement is for real, he profiles as an outfield regular — which probably means more trades are coming for the Padres.”
Padres get Grisham, Davies from Crew (source) San Diego sends Urias, Lauer to Milwaukee in deal ... my first reaction is ... not happy.
re: I'd choose the field ... so ... you don't think the distribution is like this ...
Yelich @ 18% chance of best season in 2020
Betts @ 16%
Acuna @ 15%
Turner @ 15%
Trout @ 15%
Bellinger @ 13%
Field @ 8%
... rather you think it's more like this ...
Yelich @ 15% chance of best season in 2020
Betts @ 13%
Acuna @ 12%
Turner @ 12%
Trout @ 12%
Bellinger @ 10%
Field @ 16%
... hmmm ... OK ... but in our game, you don't get to choose the field ... you will have "the most expensive player on your team".
The top six projections in the Forecaster in R$:
Yelich $43
Betts $40
Acuna $39
Turner $39
Trout $39
Bellinger $35
Ron Shandler, looking at the Baseball Forecaster's projections this year as he ponders who the first first pick should be in one of his mixed-league snake drafts:
Yelich and Trout are ranked No. 1 and No. 5, respectively,
separated by $4, but what are we really talking about here? Trout
bests Yelich by nine runs, but the advantage is flipped in the other
categories. HRs and RBIs are a wash. We’ve already determined
that Yelich’s knee makes SB too close to call. That leaves 20 points
of batting average. If Yelich gets one less hit per month and Trout
gets one more hit per month—“...one extra flare, just one, a gork,
a ground ball—a ground ball with eyes!—you get a dying quail, just
one more dying quail...”—then Trout wins that category.
Basically, $4 is way too close to call. Any of those six players
above could finish first (and if I had to choose one, I’d still choose
the field).
Ron Shandler in the new Baseball Forecaster, looking for candidates to dethrone Trout as the first pick in mixed-league snake drafts:
As for Bellinger, after two monster seasons in the past three,
we have to consider that “monsterability” is part of his profile.
His consistent teens speed output is at least comparable to Trout
at this point, with possibly higher power upside. But 2019 was his
first full major league season at this level. His player commentary
proclaims “2018 is the early career outlier,” but “outlier” seems
to be a premature label for a player with barely three years of
experience.
Recency bias has its hooks in 2019, and while Bellinger’s
rookie year showed early signs of what was to come, there is a
sedate $22 season mixed in that reminds us of the other possi-
bility. Remember the Skills Ownership corollary: “Once a player
displays a vulnerability, he owns that as well.” It appears that there
is enough here to doubt the viability of Bellinger as the Trout
Dethroner.
Just got the pdf of Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2020. Don't worry, before I'm through cutting and pasting, you'll be able to read all of it here. Here's the first installment.
Trout in the Rotisserie Era
If we are, in fact, about to witness
the Dethroning of Trout, we
need to celebrate one specific
aspect of the accomplishment
that could potentially disappear.
While Trout returned the
18th best earnings among all
players in 2017 and 2019, he
has earned Top 15 value among
all hitters for eight consecutive
seasons. Take a look where that
ranks during the Rotisserie Era
(1980- ):
Most Consecutive Seasons Earning Top 15 Value, Hitters
Barry Bonds 9
Mike Trout 8
Rickey Henderson 7
Alex Rodriguez 6
Miguel Cabrera 6
Albert Pujols 6
Ryan Braun 6
Eddie Murray 6
(From the Rotisserie Hall of Fame charts at
RonShandler.com)
That’s amazing company. Can
Trout tie Barry Bonds in 2020?
It’s possible, but the one scarce
commodity that has helped
elevate him in the past is the one
that eluded him in 2019. And
that may be enough for Bonds
to hang onto his crown.
Thank-you, Eugene, you took the words right out of my mouth :-)
One of these years he's going to do it again, like he did in 2017. We just have to stop pretending we know when that will be and pay $2 like he deserves.
With just a little bit of luck on the no-decisions, he'd have the magic number.
HOF Candidate Spotlight
 | WAR: 61.5 Better than 46.1% of HOFers Black Ink: 11 Better than 30.2% of HOFers Gray Ink: 134 Better than 35.3% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 112.0 Better than 32.3% of HOFers JAWS: 48.04 Better than 24.6% of HOFers at P |
Tommy John is a four-time All-Star who ranks 53rd all-time among pitchers in WAR and 20th in Innings Pitched. He finished 2nd in Cy Young voting twice and played for 6 different teams in his 26-year career.
John was on the HoF ballot for 15 years, maxing out at 31.7% of the vote in his final year of voting. Off the field, he's most well-known for being the first pitcher to receive UCL reconstruction surgery; more than half of his wins came after the surgery. With 188 no decisions, John holds the record for NDs by a pitcher.
Angel Sanchez might be joining Lindblom in trying to secure a MLB deal. He went 17-5 with a 2.62 ERA in 2019. He also allowed only two homers in 165 IP. How do you allow only two homers in the KBO?
Mike Zunino (C) TB - Nov. 25
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=735919
Zunino and the Rays agreed to a one-year, $4.5 million contract Monday, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.
ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: The deal reportedly comes with an option year. After losing Travis d'Arnaud to the Braves in free agency, the Rays are betting on a bounceback season from Zunino.
Josh Lindblom (P) - Nov. 25
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=735909
Lindblom is expected to receive multi-year MLB offers after he becomes a KBO free agent Saturday, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports.
ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: The 32-year-old last played in affiliated baseball back in 2017. In 147 career major-league innings, most of which came in relief, he recorded a 4.10 ERA. He's been exclusively a starting pitcher since moving to Korea and was recently named KBO MVP after posting a 2.50 ERA in 30 starts for the Doosan Bears.
Rich Hill (P) - Nov. 25
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=735912
Hill (elbow) underwent surgery in late October and won't be ready to pitch until June or July, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
I think he could be a front-line catcher.
https://nypost.com/2019/11/25/austin-romine-cashing-in-elsewhere-could-be-yankees-mistake/
Top 10 comps on bref
- Luis Gonzalez (903.9)
- Torii Hunter (889.8)
- Chili Davis (884.6)
- Billy Williams (870.1) *
- Bobby Abreu (865.2)
- Tony Perez (862.4) *
- Dave Parker (853.9)
- Carlos Beltran (851.4)
- Darrell Evans (848.1)
- Al Kaline (846.3)*
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Cleared waivers.