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Austin Barnes Los Angeles Dodgers

Signed through 2022, and the trading of Ruiz ensures he'll be the quintessential $1 catcher for another season.  In a good year he'll provide you a $5-10 profit, in a mediocre year (like 2021) he'll basically break even. 

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Oct 7
Odubel Herrera Philadelphia Phillies

Well, SOMEBODY had to play CF for the Phillies this year ... and after they'd exhausted other alternatives they fell back on Odubel, who had a reasonable 1.8 WAR season. 

Some local observers are convinced the Phillies will buy Odubel's option out, but my guess is that he'll be back given Herrera was a good citizen, didn't complain about starting the season in the minors, didn't make the wrong kind of headlines ... and perhaps most importantly, seemed to be shaking off rust as the season progressed (.682 first half OPS, .771 second half).  Add a monster .341/.409/.634 August when the Phillies were still fighting to stay in contention (and with a very reasonable .333 BABIP - so it wasn't just smoke and mirrors) ... he's going to be back in CF next year.   Hasley and Quinn both turned into pumpkins in 2021, Vierling is probably defensively challenged enough to not expect 150 CF starts out of him, and while I had hopes for Moniak his AAA collapse down the stretch will be enough to kill off the idea of handing him the job.

So the Phils can keep him at $11.5 mil, or say goodbye for $2.5 mil.  Does anyone expect to get a 1.5+ WAR CF for less than $8 mil?  And if the Phils are lucky and 2022 looks more like his second half 2021, he could end up being a 2.5+ WAR CF.

If his owners are lucky, he'll get a few more SB opportunities after going 6 for 7 on the basepaths.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Oct 7
Pavin Smith Arizona Diamondbacks

A creditable rookie season.  You'd expect a big guy like Smith to hit the ball hard - and he did have a pretty good hard hit ball percentage (42%) ... but his barrel rate puts him 153rd among major leaguers with 400+ PA this year.  Thus the paltry HR output, despite a decent launch angle.

Lefties ate him up - a .607 OPS against LHP, versus .778 against RHP.  From the interviews, seems to be the kind of smart, motivated hitter who will work on specific things during the offseason.  Will have to see what that translates to next spring - whether he's a $6 bid hoping for a minor profit, or a $12 bid hoping for a breakout.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Oct 7
Wil Myers San Diego Padres

Came out of April looking like he was ready to build on last year's performance - 4 HR, 4 SB, 12 R, 13 RBI - basically a 20+ HR/20+ SB pace with 70+ runs and RBI.

But it was ... like Myers' entire career ... a study in inconsistency.  July/August were solid (6 HR/3 SB, 23 R/24 RBI), but for May, June, September a combined 7 HR/1 SB, and 21 R/26 RBI over those 3 months.

The ballpark doesn't help him ... his home/road OPS is almost identical, but that's because he walks a lot more in Petco.  But almost twice as many HRs away as at home.  That's the biggest difference between 2020 and 2021 - in 2020 Myers averaged a HR every 10 AB in Petco.

So last years bump notwithstanding ... it looks like Wil Myers is a $15 player.  Don't chase into the 20's expecting a windfall. 

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Oct 7
Cody Bellinger Los Angeles Dodgers
Tommy EdmanCody BellingerChris TaylorAdam WainwrightMax Scherzer

Yesterday's Top Performers

Batters:

Tommy Edman* (STL): 3-5, 1 R, 2 SB

Cody Bellinger* (LAD): 1-2, 1 R, 2 SB

Chris Taylor* (LAD): 1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R

Justin Turner (LAD): 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R

Mookie Betts (LAD): 2-4

Paul Goldschmidt (STL): 1-3

Pitchers:

Adam Wainwright* (STL): 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 59 GmSc

Max Scherzer* (LAD): 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K, 54 GmSc

Kenley Jansen (LAD): 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 54 GmSc

* - pictured above

Alex Patton Alex
Oct 7
Chris Taylor Los Angeles Dodgers

Until last night he was having a bad second half.


Yesterday's Biggest Play

Batter: Chris Taylor (LAD)

Pitcher: Alex Reyes (STL)

Situation: Bottom 9th, 2 out, 2-1 count, Runner On 2nd

Score:  LAD 1, STL 1

Home Run (Line Drive to Deep LF)
2 runs scored on the play, and LAD went from a 61% win probability to a 3-1 walk-off win.

View the full game Boxscore at Baseball-Reference.com

Stathead Spotlight: Chris Taylor

Players to hit a walk-off home run in a sudden-death playoff game

DateSeriesGm# BatterTmOpp
1960‑10‑13WS7  Bill MazeroskiPIT NYY
1976‑10‑14ALCS5  Chris ChamblissNYY KCR
2003‑10‑16ALCS7  Aaron BooneNYY BOS
2016‑10‑04ALWC   1 Edwin EncarnacionTOR BAL
2021‑10‑06NLWC1  Chris TaylorLAD STL

See the list at Stathead.com's Postseason Batting Event Finder

Alex Patton Alex
Oct 7
Manuel Rodriguez Chicago Cubs

Wait. This may be the one you're looking for.

Alex Patton Alex
Oct 7

The only Manuel Rodriguez I can find in the database.

Alex Patton Alex
Oct 7
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers

Does Burnes get any extra credit for 8 IP of the combined no-hitter with Hader?

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Oct 7

I think it's going to come down to IP.  Wheeler had significantly more and his rate stats are not significantly worse. It's the combination of rate and volume that put Wheeler at the top, ahead of both Burnes and Scherzer IMO.  I think Buehler is probably somewhere 2-4, but I haven't looked at it closely enough being an AL guy. Urias would not make my top 5. Woodruff would be my #5.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Oct 7
Antonio Senzatela Colorado Rockies

Seems like a no brainer.  If you're Senzatela, take the $50 million and run.  If you're Colorado, and you have someone who has more than a modicum of success surviving Coors, it's not a bad outlay, even if it goes south.  It's not Mike Hampton money, is what I'm saying.

Mike Landau ML-
Oct 7
Manny Rodriguez New York Mets

Still wondering about this. One of his seasons is tied to the wrong Manuel Rodriguez (his 2019 stats are there, but it's the wrong birthdate).

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Oct 7
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers

46 fewer innings and 4 less starts than Wheeler will affect it too. 

van wilhoite LVW
Oct 7

The 11 wins may sink his Cy Young hopes despite having the highest SO/9 among starters and the lowest FIP by nearly a run. Scherzer, Wheeler, Urias, and Buehler all have an argument to make as well.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Oct 7
Zack Wheeler Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies NL defensive ranks.

Defensive efficiency 12th

Fielding% 10th

Defensive Runs Saved  last

I'm more convinced than ever Wheeler deserves the Cy Young. 

van wilhoite LVW
Oct 6
Riley Greene Detroit Tigers

Heads to the Arizona Fall League as the #5 prospect in baseball.  He is also one of the 12 youngest in the AFL. Other top 10 prospects are his teammate #4 Spencer Torkelson, #6 CJ Abrams, and #8 Gabriel Moreno (up with a bullet).

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Oct 6
Playoff time. Who would I like to win the World Series in order.
1) Brewers -- My favorite team.
2) Dodgers -- One of two teams I grew up rooting for.
3) Braves -- My current town's team.
4) Cardinals -- Wainwright is a guy I like.
5) Giants -- They are an NL team so they have to go here over all the AL teams.
6) Rays -- Haven't won a WS ever
7) White Sox -- Haven't won it in 15 years.
8 ) Red Sox
9) Yankees
10) Trash-can-bangers
Kent Ostby Seadogs
Oct 6
Kyle Schwarber Boston Red Sox

I don't know C. Trent Rosecrans, but I like him :-)

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Oct 6

re: Lots of luck ...

Luck = Preparation meeting Opportunity

Well done, NB!

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Oct 6
Joan Adon Washington Nationals

Just based upon a "search" at B-R.com, first MLB player named "Joan" ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Oct 6

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