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Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Brandon Nimmo New York Mets

Very, very good question.

Speaking for AP4, you are.

I've always made a distinction between projections and bids, contending one is a prediction, the other is a bet. When I enter my preliminary bids in the software, I spend a lot more time looking at the five-year salary scans than I do the projections. Then I consider Team and Sort, which tell me what team the player is playing for this year (even when players don't change teams I've been known to forget over the winter) and his expected place in the batting order. For many players I also look at the splits and the advanced metrics (some of which are displayed as the first comment in each thread), then I look at the age, and then I place my bet as AP4.

With each update, AP4 keeps changing. So do PK5 and MF5. By the end of spring training, our bids add up almost exactly to standard Roto budgets: 12 AL or NL teams, $260 per team.

Peter has the harder assignment of continuing to refine his projections during spring training and in Brandon Nimmo's case I'm pretty sure he will project a higher batting average than .230. If he continues to think $14 is the right bid limit, I imagine he thinks Nimmo will hit in the neighborhood of .260. I think he'll hit higher than that, which is why my bid is a little higher. I'm not predicting that he's going to hit .280 again, or even a little higher, but I'm betting that he might.

Alex Patton Alex
Jose Marmolejos Seattle Mariners

Actually grabbed with the last pick of the 1st round in the CBS reserve draft ... I hadn't even considered him when looking for a corner IF.  Someone believes in him.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Miguel Cabrera Detroit Tigers

Following up on the DH thread from the CBS (and why Willie Calhoun only went for $3).

Thanks to the glut of DH only hitters with CBS deciding that guys with less than 20 games at a position were fixed with the position they played the most - you had Calhoun (8 OF games), Soler (8 OF games), and JD Martinez (6 OF games) all stuck filling DH slots.

Thus - Calhoun $3 ... Miggy for free (reserve pick).

Don't count on these prices if your league allows Calhoun and Soler (and maybe JD) to be bought as OFs.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Ji-Man Choi Tampa Bay Rays

Haven't worked it out on paper, but hard to see how a guys BA dropped 30 points with only a 12 point BABIP decline and a very slight uptick in Ks ... but there you have it.

In CBS we had website troubles on auction night, and so are doing the reserve rounds as a slow draft.  I have 10th pick, and after buying Torkelson as my CI it seemed critical for me to find a CI who could produce a bit for at least the first month (I fully expect Torkelson to force the issue by June, but hate leaving a hole that long).

My best options coming into the reserve draft were Choi, Ronald Guzman, Isaac Paredes.  If I wanted to wait for him to get eligibility Miggy (it takes a few games in CBS to get eligible).  Or throw the dice on Maikel Franco or Danny Santana.

Miggy was gone by pick 4.  Sweated it out till pick 10, and Choi was still there.  Taking him cost me Folty, who got nabbed on the turnaround before it came back to me.

But I feel that Choi is a perfectly serviceable low-end CI in a 12-team AL only.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Yu Darvish San Diego Padres

Trying to turn lemons into lemonade:

While we struggle to vanquish the phantom 2021 stats, it's interesting to see what 2020 seasons were worth in the 2019 formulas. If teams had played 162 games and Darvish had pitched 76 innings, and the NL ERA was the same in 2020, Darvish would have earned $19 in 4x4,  $17 in 5x5.

Alex Patton Alex
Brandon Nimmo New York Mets

New subscriber....( due to print mag not published )....Question....I am comparing Nimmo projections to Joc Pederson....The projection has Pederson significantly out performing Nimmo in HR...RBI...AVG.....( SB and R both only a difference of 4 )....but Alex bid for Nimmo is $16 versus only $10 for Pederson......Peter bid for Nimmo is $14 versus $11 for Pederson ?????......Pederson clearly out performs in the projections.....but why the bid discpencies?......Am I looking at this correctly ?

James Oleck omnipotent
Caleb Smith Arizona Diamondbacks

The curious thing here is there's close to a ten mph difference between his fastball and slider. Per Fangraphs.

Caleb Smith (P) AZ - Feb. 21

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763297

Smith worked on his curveball during the offseason, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Because Smith feels his slider is too similar in speed to his fastball, the left-hander wants a slower breaking ball. It was a pitch he introduced last season, but a bout with COVID-19 last summer limited him to just 14 innings. He never got a chance to develop it fully, although he did throw it 20 times and did not give up a hit on it, per Statcast. "The curveball is coming along really well," Smith said. "I picked it up pretty quick, actually. I think it's right where I need it to be. I think it's going to help my repertoire a lot this season." Smith is expected to be part of the Diamondbacks' rotation in 2021.

Alex Patton Alex
Andrew Benintendi Kansas City Royals

The discount was substantial in CBS - got him at $ 12 at a time when there was still plenty of money around to chase OFs (100th pick) - a total of $56 was spent on Clint Frazier, Laureano, and Gallo over the next 5 picks.

I see a 26-year old with wheels moving from a team which attempted 40 SB last year ... to a team which attempted 69 SB last year.  And there isn't anything in KC's depth chart that makes me worry a lot about PT.  Happy to bet on a 20+ SB season.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jake Lamb Oakland Athletics

Agreed to a minor league deal with the Braves yesterday, will try to push the Panda off the end of the bench.

Alex Patton Alex
Clayton Kershaw Los Angeles Dodgers

Hard to imagine for sure. But not impossible.

Clayton Kershaw (P) LA - Feb. 21

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763350

Kershaw indicated Sunday that he does not plan to retire following the 2021 season, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Kershaw's contract runs only through the current campaign, but the left-hander said he has plenty left in the tank and that he hopes to continue with the Dodgers next year and beyond. Though Kershaw has already compiled enough accolades to be a surefire future Hall of Famer, he is only 32 years old and is coming off a campaign in which he posted a 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 62:8 K:BB over 58.1 innings in addition to claiming his first World Series championship. It's hard to imagine the lifelong Dodger in any other uniform, especially given the deep pockets possessed by the organization.

Alex Patton Alex
Andre Scrubb Houston Astros

For short relievers, my default is always 1 win unless there is a history of use in high leverage situations, then I make it 2 wins.  I guess it's how I throw more money to starters in my projections.  If Ks are the big equalizer, Wins are the great imbalance.  That said, even in the best of years, I never project a starter to have more than 18 wins and frequently I project 16-17 as the league leader, so even the top starters take a bit of a haircut in Wins.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Chris Paddack San Diego Padres

Rotoman's extended comment focuses on Paddack's quite extraordinary HR/FB.

Chris Paddack (P) SD - Feb. 21

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763342

Paddack has been focusing on the mechanics of his delivery in an attempt to improve his fastball command, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: After a strong rookie campaign in 2019, Paddack struggled with a 4.73 ERA in 2020 due largely to a four-seamer that opponents combined to hit .308 against. By contrast, hitters batted only .187 against Paddack's changeup, so improving his fastball command could be the key to a return to form for the 25-year-old. The right-hander is also working on his curveball and cutter, which he threw only 10.8 percent of the time combined last season. Paddack should open the campaign in the Padres' rotation, but he'll likely need to show more effectiveness than he did last season to remain in that role given the number of available starting options lined up behind him.

Alex Patton Alex
Jason Adam Chicago Cubs

Whence the whiffs?

Jason Adam (P) CHI-N - Feb. 21

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763335

Adam figures to be part of the Cubs' bullpen "core" this season, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Adam looked good in a small sample size last season, registering a 3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 21 strikeouts across 13.2 innings. That audition will likely lock the 29-year-old into a setup role ahead of the likes of Rowan Wick (chest) and closer Craig Kimbrel. The latter has struggled some since arriving in Chicago, so Adam has an outside chance at closing some games depending on how things shake out.

Alex Patton Alex
Andre Scrubb Houston Astros

How do you project wins for this kind of pitcher in today's game?

Hint to non-subscribers: Rotoman's projection for Scrubb is visible at the bottom of the stat scan.

Andre Scrubb (P) HOU - Feb. 21

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763301

Scrubb has drawn praise from pitching coach Brent Strom early during spring training, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. "He's lost some weight. He's in great physical shape. He's worked on his slider," Strom said. "Andre is very unique. He led our team in innings pitched last year out of the bullpen. I firmly believe he's going to improve a great deal."

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Scrubb is ostensibly vying for the final spot in the bullpen. He posted a 1.90 ERA over 23.2 innings during the truncated season, which would seemingly make him a lock for the pen, but the results came with warning signs. His 20 walks and 7.6 BB/9 were concerning as was his noisy delivery, which he's "quieted down" per Strom.

Alex Patton Alex
Sean Murphy Oakland Athletics

Sean Murphy (C) OAK - Feb. 21

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763314

Murphy (chest) arrived at camp Sunday to go through his physical, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Murphy's start to his spring has been slightly delayed after he went through surgery in the offseason to address a collapsed lung. Assuming he passes his physical without issues, he's expected to be ready for Opening Day, although Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle reports manager Bob Melvin noted Sunday he doesn't expect Murphy to be ready for baseball activities "for a while."

Alex Patton Alex
Nomar Mazara Detroit Tigers

Nomar Mazara (OF) DET - Feb. 21

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763318

Mazara's arrival at camp has been delayed due to visa issues, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: A handful of players around the league have been delayed for similar reasons as they return to the country in the middle of a pandemic. Assuming Mazara's delay doesn't drag on too long, he should have plenty of  time to get ready for Opening Day.

Alex Patton Alex
Michael Chavis Boston Red Sox

I really hope Chris Cotillo talked his editor into sending him down to spring training.

Michael Chavis (2B) BOS - Feb. 21

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763311

Chavis has to prove he's made adjustments this spring if he's to open the season on the big-league roster, Chris Cotillo of The Springfield Republican reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Chavis has potential, but he hasn't fully tapped into it over his first 137 major-league games, hitting a modest .241/.304/.424. Contact has been his biggest problem, as he's struck out in 32.8 percent of his plate appearances. Chavis still has options remaining, so the Red Sox may ask him to sort things out in the minors if he fails to demonstrate improvements in camp.

Alex Patton Alex
Miguel Cabrera Detroit Tigers

Miggy played 26 games at first two years ago, for those who are using 2019 as well to determine position qualification.

Miguel Cabrera (DH) DET - Feb. 21

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763338

Detroit manager A.J. Hinch said he is seriously considering playing Cabrera at first base one to two times per week this season, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Hinch said playing Cabrera at first gives him more roster flexibility, though he added that he doesn't want to "break" the veteran. Cabrera last appeared at first in 2019 and exclusively served as the designated hitter during the shortened 2020 season, but it appears he has a real chance at playing the field in 2021. The 37-year-old's fantasy value will of course depend on what he can do at the plate, though he could at least have some more positional eligibility to work with.

Alex Patton Alex

So more details about how they are handling spring training. There is a 75 man player pool for the combined major league / AAA spring training sessions.

In addition, games are split into two different formats "before March 13th" and after.

Games before the 13th are 7 innings by default but can be pre-arranged to go either 5 innings or 9 innings.During these games, no three-man minimums either. After March 14th, three man minimum is back and games go 9 by default.

During all of spring training they have these rules which are essentially the same as Instructional League rules: The pitching team can declare an inning is over after 20 pitches if they want to. Also, pitchers can come out of a game and go back in. The idea here is that if you want to see how some one handles baserunners and your starter gives up a couple of early baserunners, you could bring in a reliever to close out the inning and then bring your starter in the following inning.

Kent Ostby Seadogs

We dropped IP last year b/c we didn't know how things would turn out. This year, with a full slate of games scheduled, we went back to all of our regular rules and our 2019 rosters, but we may have to make some tweaks. IP is first and foremost on the list of things to adjust.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed

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