Recent Comments

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Johan Santana Minnesota Twins
Granted I don't follow the NL all that closely, but given the return the Twins got from the Mets, anyone question that the supposed offers from the Yanks and the Sawks were actually on the table?
Thomas Odom Mendoza
Jan 30 '08
Matt Capps Atlanta Braves
Just my impression from watching him pitch; I think he's unlikely to stay under a hit an inning. That'll bring his ERA up some as well. I could be wrong -- I just think that guys like this lose the closing job (perhaps unfairly) more quickly that more "impressive" looking guys (yes, like Valverde).

I think he is a good pitcher, though less valuable in 5x5. My feeling could be wrong, no denying that.
mike fenger mike
Jan 30 '08
Johan Santana Minnesota Twins
What does Santana's age have to do with anything? How can you judge a trade when Minnie received 4 minor leaguers and are rebuilding for their future?

Haren fetched more because they didn't just sell him but his below market contract as well.

Unfortunately, this isn't fantasy baseball. Economics are the biggest factor and given that Minnie's choices basically narrow down to a) trade for a bunch of prospects or b) lose Santana to free agency and get far less than what they got from the Mutts. Which would you choose?
E Park yoda
Jan 30 '08
Well, given that Santana is only 29, I think we can judge the trade right now. Gomez is a talent, but a raw one at that - his lack of place discipline does not bode well, but there is time for that to change. Guerra has a lightning bolt for an arm; he is in A ball - that makes him a flier (a good one, but a flier). Perhaps we remember back to Pulsipher, Wilson, Izzy? Humber is a 3rd starter at best. Mulvey is a local guy - went to Villanova. If he pans out, he's a 4.

This is just insufficient return for a guy like Santana. The As got better return for Haren, and Santana is no Dan Haren.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 30 '08
Santana vs. NL
IP: 182.2
ERA: 2.27
WHIP: .92
SO: 191

Park, league and team should all boost his value some but how much?

Also let's not be so quick to judge this trade since we all knew it wouldn't look pretty. Give it a few years for those prospects to develop.
E Park yoda
Jan 30 '08
Barry Bonds San Francisco Giants
I hardly see him tarnishing his career by playing another season after posting .276/.480/.565. He is still an elite hitter.
E Park yoda
Jan 30 '08
Why doesn't Barry retire to his recliner in Beverly Hills. Does he have to humiliate himself after passing Hammerin' Hank? What does he have to gain? Just like his godfather, the greatest player of the last 60 years, he's going to play another season and further tarnish his stellar career. If any of you saw Willie Mays play for the Mets in 1973, you'd make a compilation of his lowlights and play them back to Barry.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 30 '08
Joe Mauer Minnesota Twins
How did Billy Beane miss this guy?
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 30 '08
Matt Capps Atlanta Braves
Two solid seasons in a row, big decrease in homers allowed, 4 to 1 K/BB, no one waiting in the wings. Looks rock-solid to me, even if he's not overpowering. Would you rather have Jose Valverde in Minute Maid?
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 30 '08
Johan Santana Minnesota Twins
I guess the Mets have to be the favorites to get to the World Series. And they didn't have to give up one starter. Amazing how the market works to favor the highest payroll teams: just like the real world of high finance corporations.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 30 '08
Take Santana off the AL charts. He is gone to the Mets, for a horrific return of Gomez, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra. No Martinez? You have to be kidding!
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 29 '08
Matt Capps Atlanta Braves
Mike, any reason why you think he will regress? His skills seem to be improving and his production seems to be well in line. Plus he is only 24 and growing.
E Park yoda
Jan 29 '08
Joe Mauer Minnesota Twins
A couple of things I'd like to add. Mauer plays a very difficult position that is physically hard on most people. We see a lot of catchers wear down quicker and affect their hitting.

Add to this his chronic leg/knee problems and I don't know how he will consistently generate power in his career. I think he is a much better real life player than a fantasy player. He will always be overrated due to this argument.
E Park yoda
Jan 29 '08
"1 - OUTS are to be avoided, not strikeouts. Look at Mauer's record again and whether the K's and BA move together, or inversely. It's not unusual at all."

Mauer is a very selective batter. He doesn't strikeout out a lot. However, if he starts swinging at more bad balls his K's will increase, leading to more outs. There is no correlation between Mauer's HR rate and his K rate.
2004 6 HR 14 K 128 PA
2005 9 HR 64 K 550 PA
2006 13 HR 54 K 600 PA
2007 7 HR 51 K 463 PA

"2 - I'd appreciate seeing some of those Boston writers who said that...I didn't notice any of them after his rookie year."

I don't have Lexis/Nexis at home, but these are from his post-retirement, so his selfish lack of power persisted into his HOF debate.

June 2005 from Dan Shaughnessey: "Boggs was accused of being selfish. Some teammates grumbled that he cared only about his stats, that he wouldn't give himself up and move a runner over, that he wouldn't try to hit homers if it meant sacrificing his average."

July 2005 Sean McAdam: "The complaints are well-documented. He didn't hit for enough power. He didn't produce enough. He was too selfish.."

Shaughnessey also had a 2002 article that said that Boggs was too selfish to bat leadoff.

"3 - 36 and 27 doubles in a turf park is an indication of lack of power based on those ABs. Look, the popular myth with mauer was that he was big and would hit for power...He never has done so. His 13 Home runs were hailed as the next babe ruth."

Nobody hailed him as the next Babe Ruth, at least not in this thread, and definitely not me. So, if you're going to criticize me for making mistakes, you should stick to the things I said.

You made a size argument regarding Barton's eventual power under his comments section. And, I never made an argument on about Mauer's size and eventual power. I do, however believe a hitter who hits a double 6.5% of the time from age 21-24 will eventually hit more HR.

You also assume that Mauer will be able to play thirdbase and that playing there will keep him in the lineup more. I wonder what Troy Glaus thinks about the wear and tear of third. Or Eric Chavez. Or Hank Blalock. Those guys had high expectations and have had a lot of injuries.

More likely Mauer would have to play 1B and Justin Morneau is there. Putting him at DH makes little sense. Perhaps he can play RF or LF, but Cuddyer just resigned and Delmon Young should be a fixture for years to come. Playing 110 at C and another 25-35 at DH would be ideal and I bet that what the Twins do.

And, if you consider marginal wins above replacement level, playing catcher adds the most to the Twins.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 29 '08
Matt Capps Atlanta Braves
Well, I don't dislike him THAT much. $6 was my price for him last year, but I agree he needs a higher price fro 2008. That said, I'm not so very bullish on him; I do expect some regression, and I suspect others (Marte? an in-season acquisition?) will also get some save chances.
mike fenger mike
Jan 29 '08
Daric Barton Toronto Blue Jays
stevep- You took a shot at me regarding my analysis on Joe Mauer. I addressed some of the "mistakes" in Mauer's comment section.

Here let me address your Barton comments.

"Barton hit 4 HRs in 18 games"
This sample size is totally useless for analysis purposes. And, it's the plate appearances that matter, not the games played. Barton had 4 HR in 82 PA (let's ignore HBP and sac fly data for now). When Mauer came up he hit 6 HR in 111 PA. Which is more impressive? They were the same age when they came up. Since you say that Mauer doesn't show power, but Barton does, it's confusing to me.

Barton's 5 minor league seasons had splits of .301/.414/.458. Mauer's 3 seasons had splits of .331/.407/.424. Mauer is a better hitter for batting average, while Barton walks a lot more. Barton has a slightly better power component when you consider ISO since Mauer's batting average advantage helps his SLG.

I don't think you can expect more than 12-15 HR this year though. Granted in 3-5 years he's going to be a stud, but unless you already have him in a minor league status and keep him buried this year, and only activate him opening day 2009, I don't think 5 years from now matters in rotisserie terms.

Teams playing to win this year have to bid based upon this year's projected production.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 29 '08
Matt Capps Atlanta Braves
Guess Mike doesn't like Matt too much huh?
Jeff Baum BaumThreat
Jan 29 '08
Barry Bonds San Francisco Giants
Does anyone know what his salary demand is?
E Park yoda
Jan 29 '08
Cliff Corcoran has written an interesting article over at SI.com ranking all 30 teams in order of their likelihood of signing the "elephant in baseball's living room" (and apparent conversation-stopper here) who is still roaming free on the free-agent range.

And the winner is?

1) San Diego Padres: The Padres came painfully close to the post-season last year, giving them something to prove. They also have a gaping hole in left field, which is currently occupied by Scott Hairston. The drag here is that Bonds is a career .195/.405/.390 hitter in San Diego's pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Still, the Padres, who have taken a less controversial but also far less favorable chance with Jim Edmonds in center, seem more likely to sign Bonds than the other teams that could best use him (the Angels, Braves, D'backs, Indians, and Mets), and would benefit more than other the three teams (Texas, Houston, and Seattle) that seem most likely to give him a shot. Signing in San Diego would also keep Bonds in California and out of an intense local media spotlight. San Diego seems like the best destination for Bonds despite his past struggles in Petco. Should he land there, he'll undoubtedly tip the balance of power in the division, but then, he'll do that no matter where he plays this year.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 29 '08
Paul Byrd Boston Red Sox
I guess the human growth hormone hasn't enhanced his 83 mph fastball. And, unfortunately there's no way to enhance what's between the ears or there would be alot more great ballplayers.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 29 '08

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