Recent Comments

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
I'm not sure Kubel's going to be underrated at all. The tout community seemed very high on him at the end of last year and were already propping him up as a sleeper, which means he's probably going to go for Fenger's price at least, and more likely closer to $14 or $15. Whether that's wise or not is another story. Most of those walks came Post All-Star, but Kubel shortened his stroke. He might improve his BA this year, but I think he'll sacrifice some power as a result, and isn't going to hit the 25 HR some of his fans think he will.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 27 '08
According to ESPN's ZRfor 2007. Edwin was actually the 7th best 3rd Baseman in the NL according to ZR. He had a .777 rating.

Derek Jeter was the lowest in the AL for SS with a .765.

Encarnacion is one of those players that looks good at $15 but you question at $22. He will robably earn in that neighborhood, but has the youth and ability to bust out and earn $30+.
Donny Brubaker donbru
Jan 27 '08
He did play better (and more) in the second half, so I'd expect (or at least hope for) a bit more. Don't want to bid more, though . . .
mike fenger mike
Jan 27 '08
Francisco Liriano Toronto Blue Jays
I'm sure he will be on strict pitch limits even if he starts in the rotation. He should be on strict innings limit for the season as well. The problem will come if the Twins are in contention.

And, I agree with Toz. One major injury that is a repairable tear is a lot different than a chronic injury or multiple long term injuries.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 27 '08
Felix Hernandez Baltimore Orioles
I really would hate to pay $21 for $14 in earnings.

There are safer options, particularly if you are competing this year in a freeze league.

If you have an eye toward '09, however, you might want to consider Felix an Ace Play; I cannot ignore the potential.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 27 '08
Brad Lidge Washington Nationals
Actually, Houston's HR rate is only very slightly pro hitter; Philly's is 1.495, which is, well, incredulously pro-homer.

On the other hand, I agree with Jeff here. Lidge's peripheral numbers are pretty good. My concern is with the K/W - Lidge is all over the board with GB/FB (actually 1.00 twice in his career oddly enough). I might not go to $30 on Lidge, and the Phils don't win a lot of one run games, but I could see $28 or $29 here.

For fun, note that Lidge has put in 10 innings in CBP and given up 0 HR.

John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 27 '08
Jeremy Bonderman Seattle Mariners
Bonderman is going to be a comment horse, if not an innings horse, just because of the varied opinions we see below. My only concern is: rebound to what??? $9? $7? $16? That's a crapshoot I don't want to take with a guy who got hurt after his highest inning total the year prior.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 27 '08
Francisco Liriano Toronto Blue Jays
He should actually scare you a lot less than guys like Harden and Prior, because he's only been hurt once, is 24 and took a full 18 months off from TJ surgery. I think you have it backwards.

Yoda does, however, make a point that makes sense - his year of excellence was part in the pen and part in the rotation. We really don't know what he has to offer every fifth day at this point, and I think the proper bid limit is $9-$11 if he appears healthy. Then, talk him up and let someone pay $20.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 27 '08
Roy Oswalt Colorado Rockies
I like the prices. Oswalt lost faith in his stuff, and lost a grip on the strikezone. At the end of the year, he appeared to have his stuff, and its not like he lost the strike zone so much that we should be concerned he won't find it again. I look at the scan and say that 2007 is an anomaly.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 27 '08
What you say is true, mike, but there is a problem applying this analysis to Edwin. First, he is one of the worst fielding third basemen in the majors, despite lowering his error total from 25 to 16 last year; his zone rating is pretty bad. Second, despite the 25 doubles and 16 HR, he had an OPS of .798 and an OPS+ of 101, both down from the year before.

I think what you see is what you get: a guy with 450-500 AB and $15-$20 earnings.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 27 '08
Ryan Sweeney Chicago Cubs
Billy's got so much to root for he hardly knows where to look. But it's always possible that the last chip Ken Williams threw on the table to get Nick Swisher will be the one he regrets. After all, Sweeney's a hitter; the other two (Gio Gonzalez and Fautino De Los Santos) are pitchers.

Of course, just a couple of years ago Sweeney was everyone's favorite long-range prospect. After his uninspired year in Triple-A and another cup of coffee in the majors that was just as unhelpful as the first to his fantasy owners, Sweeney hit a singles-laden .286 in the Arizona Fall League, stealing a less-than-energetic 5 bases.

So now he's in Oakland. With Chris Denorfia as his competition. If that doesn't put a little spring in his step, maybe even a little zing in his bat, nothing will.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 27 '08
I think one of the toughest things to do in this game is to try and reconcile disconnects between what we think managers should do, and what they actually do. It's fine to say that the numbers support a starting job for Edwin, despite his error totals, but when he does sit once a week or so, we need to accept that there's something there that lowers his value. We can't always know what it is -- maybe he's not doing his work every day, maybe he and the manager don't get along, maybe someone who sees him in the field every day is right that his fielding isn't what it needs to be.

That said, though, the corollary is that a good place to put money is on guys who have less than full-time jobs, but who you think will hit if/when they get to play every day. It says here that Edwin should play almost every day, and be productive. If the issue is a personal one, it might be with another team . . .
mike fenger mike
Jan 27 '08
Roy Oswalt Colorado Rockies
It shows from my price, but I like his chances to rebound. He did pitch a bit better in the second half last year, and it's not like he's too old to be dominating again . . .
mike fenger mike
Jan 27 '08
Eddie Guardado Washington Nationals
Guardado's one-year deal with the Rangers includes a hefty bonus for games finished, and if he finishes games he'll be saving them. With T.J. surgery behind him and only C.J. Wilson ahead of him, the odds that he collects the bonus aren't bad at all. Obviously, the bid has to go up substantially if he shoves C.J. aside during spring training.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 27 '08
Francisco Liriano Toronto Blue Jays
He scares me more than guys like Prior and Harden. The difference between those guys and Liriano is that he has yet to pitch a full MLB season but treated like a top starter. Bid him up and let someone else have him.
E Park yoda
Jan 26 '08
Sandy Koufax Los Angeles Dodgers
Koufax is a really interesting case. He was so absolutely dominant for a three years, vastly superior to the league for two more, but didn't throw a ton of innings for the era, and had one other good season. The rest of his career was solid to poor.

Koufax's dominance wasn't to the level of Pedro in 2000. While he's a great "what if" case, he did retire because of severe injury, not unlike Kirby Puckett. All players deal with the risk of injury. It's part of the job description. It's not the same what if as Ted Williams who missed 5 years due to the nation being at war and him serving the country. Or, the more tragic what if of Josh Gibson and the other Negro Leaguers.

Koufax was an icon as much as he was a a great pitcher. His last year his ERA+ was 190. That's 90% better than the average pitcher in the league and his highest mark. Pedro exceeded 190 in 2000 with a 291, 1999 w/ 243, 1997 w/ 219, 2003 w/ 210, and 2002 w/ 202.

He pitched in a pitcher's era and in one of the best pitcher's parks of all-time. While the IP look outrageous now, they were normal for his era. He finished 1st in IP twice, 3rd once, and 4th once.

And Alex, context neutral, in 1961 Koufax was 23% better than the league average context adjusted.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 26 '08
Jeremy Bonderman Seattle Mariners
Was it realistic to expect improvement on 2006? He was a workhorse with All-Star numbers and maybe all those innings took some toll on his health. He's got one amazing lineup behind him, still shows impressive K/BB numbers and won't be expected to be an ace or stopper. Look for a rebound. $10 may be right, but earnings will be higher.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 26 '08
His top comp through age 24 is Jon Garland. Bonderman has only posted one season (2006) with an ERA+ better than league average. % worse than league average in most years, he's probably 10-12% worse than most 12 team AL leagues, since the worst pitchers are not taken/retained.

Let the Stage 2 guys bid for potential and wishes, keep the bid safely low enough not to get him.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 26 '08
Brad Lidge Washington Nationals
All those peripheral numbers are still looking pretty damn closerful. Houston is not exactly a pitcher's paradise. I would think the change of scenery portends good things, not bad.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 26 '08
Francisco Liriano Toronto Blue Jays
Wouldn't it make some sense to use Liriano in relief for awhile while he builds arm strength? It's those longer stints in starting games that broke and will break him down faster.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 26 '08

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