To some degree, I understand the rationale behind paying Jeter $30 or more in 4x4. He's almost a certain .300 hitter he'll steal 15 bases, and the power numbers do enough to prop him into the mid to high $20s, even in years he doesn't run. My problem with paying that much for him this year is that his baseball age is 34 and the years that he hits for power and steals a ton of bases seem to be the abberation and not the norm. When Jeter was 27 or 30, I didn't mind paying a little more, hoping for one of his standout seasons and "tolerating" a $27 season. The problem now is that age makes it a little less likely he'll put up on of those $35+ years, and a little more likely he'll earn $15-20 in a year when I pay $30.

All this means is that I won't be owning Jeter again until he's completely declined. People will pay big bucks for him until he's in the twilight. And I could be wrong. Jeter might coax another $35 season or two out of that skill set.

USS Mariner has done a lot of research suggesting he needs to throw fewer:

http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/27/an-open-letter-to-rafael-chaves/

He is always such a tease...all that talent but hasn't been able to crack $18 in earnings in the last 5 years. I had him last year at $20, which was a gamble, but I don't feel like gambling on this guy this year.

I would also be surprised if he went for $12 in an AL-only format, but that bid seems right for a guy who has only logged more than 175 IP in a season twice in his career. The injury risk is too great with Burnett to go much higher.

The Jays aren't shopping him, but if S-F was willing to give up Cain or Lincecum, wouldn't you listen?

Add in his extra 54 points of batting average and his OBP exceeds his historical levels and his SLG gets back close to 2006. Add in 24 points to get back to his 2005 batting average and his OBP goes matches 2005 and his SLG falls 20 points short. His only drop off was in singles.

All good comments, and I agree as well Konerko is primed for a bounce back in '08. I would be very pleased to get him at Alex's 4x4 bid.

Konerko is interesting. His extra base hits are remarkably consistent. The question is - what caused the drop off? Luck? That's a lot of BA, OBP and SLG to attribute to luck. I just think he had an off year. I, like Mike G., expect a bounce-back.

It looks like his "decline" was all BA. Ten more balls drop in for hits and nobody notices the off year.

If Swisher's batting ahead of him there should be a nice boost in RBI opportunities as well.

I'd be shocked if $12 got him in AL-Only.

Staggeringly frustrating player.

I think you pay hoping for 2005 and if it turns out there's another '03 or '06 in his bat you're laughing.

Why has he been mentioned so often in trade talks? It frightens
owners in AL only leagues.

Last year I said I'd rather have Rios at $20 than Wells at $30. (That worked out well!)

But Rios isn't as young as he seems, and his numbers got out of whack after the Home Run Derby. Now I'm not sure I wouldn't rather have Wells 'cause I think he might go for a few bucks less.

With no apparent injury last year and no discernible drop in any of his interior numbers, I'd expect Konerko to bounce back to his 2004-2006 levels. He did leave the team twice last year due to deaths in the family (including his grandmother in August), so it's possible that may have had a little to do with it. Konerko's a player I'll be targeting as a possible bargain in 2008.

My real point is that middle infield is not a position where scarcity needs to be considered. There are 14 starting catchers and we need to draft 24. There are 28 starting middle infielders and we need to draft 36. There are 42 starting outfielders and we need to draft 60!!! Outfield is scarcer than middle, especially in a year where we have 19 secondbasemen who will have positive values, many over $10, and 4 over $20.

He slipped a little in the second-half, particulary in the power department (only 7 HR) and he fell off the map in September (.234 BA, .369 SLG). Nevertheless, I'd agree with Eugene and Yoda that the bid has to be higher. Even if Rios doesn't make it to 30 HR, he's going to hit close to .300 with that sweet swing and the steals aren't going away. Even if he doesn't become an elite player, you don't want to let someone get him for $26 and turn a profit.

Take a look at Gibson's walk rate. While he was a solid strikeout pitcher he didn't walk a lot of batters. Do you know why? Hitters went up and swung at the first decent pitch. They didn't look for the perfect pitch. Even in the late 70's early 80's there were very few batters who worked the count. Jim Rice was "the most feared hitter in baseball" (patent pending) and he walked fewer than 50 times a season. Maybe he wasn't that feared, but that's another argument altogether.

Since batters weren't working the count there were fewer pitches per batter. Plus the strikezone was bigger. Remember those big chest protectors that required umpires to stand up more. The higher strike was available. That all adds up to more batters per pitch and therefore more innings.

While old-time pitchers say they didn't need pitch counts, they also didn't need as many pitches to get an out. It makes a huge difference.

BB: Someone is going to have to prove to me the effects of PEDs. Then they're going to have to offer me more proof than the circumstantially-laden Mitchell Report.

Eugene: I'd agree that 2B is a deep position. Stacked, though? Kendrick certainly has potential, but I'd like to see a full season before I crack the $20 barrier. Cabrera didn't do much with the bat last year. Lopez hasn't done much with the bat the last two years. Harris looked like a first-half wonder. Ellis probably peaked last year. These are all solid players, but the top guys at the position are Upton, Roberts and Cano, with Kinsler possibly joining them this year. I'd rather pay $30 for Roberts than $20 for Kendrick or Hill, since Roberts has much more of a track record.

Interesting that the AP bid is below his earnings for the last 3 years. Which are pretty darn consistent, and we all love that in a pitcher. I guess it makes sense since there is always the risk this guy tweaks the elbow flushing the john before his 1st start and missing 4 months.

Starting at the age of 30, Gibson pitched innings of 299, 280, 175, 304, 314, 294, 245, 278, 195, and 240--at the age of 39.

What has happened to the human body in the last quarter century is puzzling. Every body part is better except the pitching arm.

I disagree that 2B in the AL is a tough position. I actually think it's the deepest in the league. Roberts, Upton, Kinsler, Cano, Polanco, Ellis, Hill, Pedroia, Brendan Harris, Asdrubal Cabrera, Kendrick, Grudz, and Jose Lopez all should have solid to great earnings. Add in Casilla, Izturis, German, Barfield, Bloomquist, and Aybar worth more than $1, and Iwamura and Uribe should qualify at 2B early in the year. That's 21 secondbasemen, when you only need 12 plus 12 additional middle infielders. I'd say it's a stocked position.