If you blow Cabrera's major league line up to 550 AB, you've got a 10/76/0/.284 hitter. Using the Patton $ formulas, that gives you a $12 player. I'd tick the bid down a little because if that's what Cabrera's going to do, I'd rather add a few bucks to the studs at the position and not pay par for Cabrera.

I won't tick my bid too far down because I'd hope that Cabrera brings some of those 25 steals he picked up in the minors last year to The Show.

I'm not expecting huge things out of Hernandez in 2008, but I do think he'll be a little healthier and thus better. The slip in power was mostly due to a strained oblique in April. As Slyke pointed out in the Manny Ramirez comment, oblique injuries have a way of sapping power and lingering. Very subtly, Hernandez quietly started picking up the power pace at the end of the year. Hernandez isn't old enough to expect him to fall completely off the map, so a return to his SLG levels of 2003-2006 is not unlikely.

A monster. Probably there isn't a huge amount of growth in his game, but one of these years all the stars will align and he'll hit .350 with 50 homers.

Unless he gets hit by a bus (or eats one), he's my preseason pick for AL MVP.

I agree with Alex that Jones should start the year in Triple-A based on his K/W numbers. If he moves to Baltimore, though, he won't. The batting average might be ugly but I don't doubt Jones' power. You could be looking at 20-25 HR, and for that you'll have to bid into double digits.

I'm scared of Rolen and probably won't come near getting him as a result. I understand the upside, but think that Scottie might always be a perpetually banged up player. His shoulder was his biggest issue last year, but Rolen sat out due to a variety of maladies. Maybe it had something to do with his dislike for LaRussa, but that doesn't bode well for his relationship with any manager if that indeed is the case.

Eric Chavez might be a good template here. It's more disturbing to me that Rolen put up $10 of earnings in nearly 400 AB. The nature of his aches and pains is going to limit his production, even if his shoulder is fine. It's one thing to pay for a guy like this and hope for a profit but, at $16, you still might not get one.

The small Triple-A sample size says that he should go back there, but I suspect the 3B job is his unless he bombs this spring. Keith Law says that Longoria has a "similar skill set and upside to David Wright." I'd agree that Longoria's upside is huge, but I'd be relatively conservative with the bid. Longoria doesn't run, so he'll have to put up pretty big power numbers right out of the gate to be a significant Roto asset as a rookie. Alex's 2007 bid for Alex Gordon was $17. I'd go a little lower than that, just because we all know that rookies have a wide curve, but all that means is that I probably wouldn't own Longoria in a start over league.

Crisp is an interesting player. His real baseball skills are hidden by his poor offensive performance the past two years. His OPS+ has been 77 and 83 in Boston after 110 and 117 in Cleveland. But, he was the best fielding centerfielder in the AL last year, despite not winning a gold glove. So, many will underrate him based upon his poor production. And, despite not having much production as a real life hitter, his steals give him a good rotisserie value.

I worry about playing time with an increasingly crowded MIN OF/1B/DH situation, and Gardenhire's bizarre fixations.

His second-half did look sweet, though.

All things go right, and he's a shorter John Olerud.

$139M later and it's official: he's a Met.

Peter's price is probably still OK, but Mike and Alex will have to bump theirs.

I doubt it'll take half that much to get him if he's still a Red Sox. Does that bid assume he's playing behind Jacoby?

Less than Bruce, but not by much.

Two in a row (see Posada) where I am in complete agreement with MikeG. It's not uncommon for hitters to peak at age 26. Twenty-seven is the average peak for hitters. And a slow steady decline is more or less the opposite of one might expect from someone who stops taking a performance enhancing drug. While it might have some lingering effects, the gains decrease quickly (see former professional wrestlers and NFL linemen/linebackers from the 80s).

Garrett Anderson had an established level of performance (let's call it level A), then jumped to level B when steroids reportedly became rampant. When the testing went into place he went back to and has stayed at level A ever since. I'd say he's much more likely than Huff to have taken anything based upon his odd career plot.

Huff is a normal aging player going through a slow steady decline.

Either way, there was no rule against steroids when they were taken by most of the players who did take them and there's no real evidence that human growth hormone does anything to enhance performance, other than make people look younger. I see the whole thing as another way that Selig takes a shot at the players rather than growing the game, which he has done a surprisingly good job at with MLB media in recent years.

My bid's $15, too, as I think Gutierrez has the job going into Spring Training and should keep it all season. His power has improved every year as his offense has developed, so looking at his minor league SLG percentages and saying last year was a fluke is worthless. Gutierrez looks like a player to me.

If you want him, you're probably going to have to go to around $13-15. The Patton $ production/per AB is incredible, and someone's going to take the chance that Baldelli is primed to get 500 AB and put up a $25 season.

In the 1989 cult movie "How to Get Ahead in Advertising", two businessmen and a priest are talking on a train. One of the businessmen is reading a newspaper, and reads about a drug bust. He says "the police also found a bag containing 15 ounces of cannibus resin. The bag may also have contained a small quantity of heroin."

The other businessman points out that the bag also could have contained "a porkpie" or "a turnip", as opposed to heroin. The first businessman and the priest dismiss this as nonsense. If the article says that the bag may have contained heroin, then it must have contained heroin.

This steroids controversy reminds me of th3 bag in that movie. Aubrey Huff may have done steroids. But he might have also stopped lifting weights. He might have changed something in his approach that has changed him for the worse as a hitter. Or he might simply have gotten lucky in 2002-2003.

We don't know. And we'll never know.

Be wary of claims that so-and-so took steroids. He might have. But I suspect there are more porkpies and turnips in this particular bag than not.

I absolutely agree with MikeG on this one. Starting catchers are so scarce and good catchers are so few that you need two starting catchers, at least one good one, in order to have a competitive offense in RBI and Runs. (I always think 5x5.) Have two $1 catchers puts you far too behind in RBI and Runs to make up the difference elsewhere. You can take a risk on one of the young guys, but with out a VMart, Mauer, Posada, or even Varitek, Pudge, Pierzynski, or Johjima that you can bank on, you're already behind the 8-ball. Plus, there are so many owners who discount catchers due to the injury risk that you can very frequently get them below your bid price even if you plan to go slighly above your calculated value.

So how much do we value him if he is the starting CF in Balto?

Just curious Slyke, what do you think the bid price for Salty should be? If $15 is realistic for Posada, as you said in his comment, I'm assuming you're setting the bar for Salty - a young, raw player with terrible strike zone judgment who the argument could be made for starting him at Triple-A in 2008 - at about $6. Right?

Catcher is a different animal than other positions, Slyke. In an 12 team A.L.-only league, you're guaranteed to have 10 second-string catchers on active Roto rosters. That's 42% of the catching universe that won't be everyday players. Compare that to 22% of the middle infield and corner infield universes and 30% of the outfield universe. Then think about the guys who are starters who aren't very productive, such as John Buck and Dioner Navarro. Then think about the young guys like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mike Napoli, and Kurt Suzuki, who might be productive this year but haven't done anything in the majors yet. I agree that Posada won't hit .338; that wasn't where I was going with this. But a starting catcher who will hit 20 HR, drive in 80, and not hurt your BA, is a guy you should bid on anticipating that you may take a slight loss.