Recent Comments

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
I had commented to Toz previously I thought this was a very good trade for the A's. Gio's resume is impressive, and I would not be surprised if we see him in the A's rotation at some point this year. It's early for sure, but time could show this to trade be on par with Beane's Mulder for Haren, Barton and Calero deal. Beane has a good eye for young pitchers.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Jorge Sosa Florida Marlins
I really have a hard time bidding on guys that have struggles getting to a K/W better than 1.8. The likelihood of the negative season is so much greater than the likelihood of 2005.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
Felix Hernandez Baltimore Orioles
There is no doubting his skills, but like Eugene states, he will never realize his potential until he learns how to pitch. I think he took a step back in 2007...his H/9 increased and his K/9 decreased from the previous year.

The good news is he will be just 22 in April, so there is plenty of time for him to improve, but I am not sure it will be this year. He was simply hit too hard last year for me to think he will put everthing together this year and be that $30 stud we all think he can be. I will let others bid high for his potential and spend my money on a safer option.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Jered Weaver San Diego Padres
Mike G. hit the nail right on the head on this one. I think Weaver's season is destined for the $18 range. I can see paying $15 for him this year.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
You know, I'm looking at the K/W thinking, jeez, if Brown did that in 2005, his earnings would have come close to $30. I don't like Brown and I never have...nonetheless, if he's starting and gets 450 ABs, he is a $12-$15 player.

Jeff Fiorentino anyone?
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
Jeremy Bonderman Seattle Mariners
@$(*%# Jeremy Bonderman. I'll explain another time, or MikeG will tell you.

Bonderman looked as though he was heading for a breakout season - K/W increasing, WHIP decreasing, ERA decreasing, innings increasing. Well, that tells you what we know.

I tend to agree with rotoman more than yoda - I don't think he was overrated per se, but the constant injury problems lead me to believe that, even at 25, he might never reach the potential that he flashes now and again.

I am curious to see what he goes for in our draft. I do not think $7 is outrageous as a guide.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
I will not revise history - I sucked down the bile in my stomach and said, okay, Gonzalez and Floyd for Garcia will get my Phils in the playoffs. Nonetheless, when Gonzalez is a consistent 15 game winner into his late 30s, I will weep hearing his name.

Go go Gio.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
Zack Greinke Houston Astros
I like numbers, and they don't tell me too much at first glance. At second glance, however, they tell me Greinke could be a very good set-up man or closer. His OPS against in pitches 31-60 is somewhere in the neighborhood of .930. His OPS against in pitches 1-30 is somewhere in the neighborhood of .725. Last I checked, that is a big difference.

Oddly enough, the BA against for pitches 1-15 is .289, then drops to .240 for the next 15 pitches. The following 30 pitches, however, is where you find the problems...hitters light him up like a NY City Christmas tree.

This suggests a couple of things to me. One, Greinke needs to master another pitch. Two, Greinke suffers from mental fatigue as much as physical fatigue. Three, if he is warmed up properly with the proper mental makeup, he is a 1-2 inning pitcher who could easily earn $10-$15.

I can't agree with an $11 bid limit here, though, unless he's the closer, in which case you can tick him up a bit.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
Luke Hochevar Kansas City Royals
Has not been overly impressive in his two minor league seasons. Doesn't appear he will be ready for the Royals in 2008 (don't be fooled by the 2.13 ERA in his 12 inning stint in KC last year) so expect him to start the year in Omaha. 2009 looks more realistic for Hochevar making any roto impact. Pass this year.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Ryan Shealy Toronto Blue Jays
We'll never really know if Shealy would or could have been good, since KC is where all good players go to die. Somebody get Billy Butler out of there while there is time.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
Sandy Koufax Los Angeles Dodgers
My step-son had to do a project on a cultural hero for school last year. While my wife encouraged him to look at people like Gratz, Rabin, and other important Jewish figures, he went an entirely different direction and did his project on Koufax (and I admit, without shame, weeping tears of pride that day). I asked him why, and he had a fascinating answer for a 9 year old. He said it was because Koufax had to be a very special person if he turned down the chance to start the first game of a World Series because he believed so much in the importance of being Jewish.

There are very few guys like Koufax playing baseball these days. He didn't throw at all between starts during the last couple of years because he couldn't lift his arm. Inning for inning and pitch for pitch, he might have been the best pitcher in baseball history.

If I were starting an all-time fantasy league, I would have a hard time ignoring Koufax in the first round.

The answer to your question, Alex, is this...if you put the mound to where Gibson had his in 1968, I'm not sure Koufax would have given up a hit, never mind a run.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
Matt Cain San Francisco Giants
Amazing a pitcher this good could go 7-16. So much to like...ace potential and you might be able to get at a decent price this year. With any kind of luck he should win 12-14 games in '08 and expect those interior numbers to get better. If you can get him for under $20, grab him and enjoy.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Jay Bruce New York Yankees
Great comments here for a great player. The Reds managed to move Hamilton, but still have a lot of bodies eligible to play that outfield.

135Ks in 495ABs in three levels at 21 doesn't scare me with Bruce at all. I think an extra few months in AAA might be helpful, but if he makes the roster out of spring training, he earned it, and earned the $18 bid that you should be targeting.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
Here's the rub with Marcum...if he is pitching on a torn meniscus (and I have one that I walk on), he is getting the ball up and he loses some velocity. Health is such a huge factor here, because Marcum clearly has good stuff, even if its only 2 pitches worth. I would talk Marcum up and enforce him, and hope that your opponents are willing to pay the extra couple of bucks that you aren't. If you get him at $8, it could be good.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
John Lackey Chicago Cubs
I am not going to pay $30 for Lackey, and I will not get him for that reason.

Nice HR totals, decreasing WHIP, ration and ERA, with a 3.4 K/W? Even if the Ks decreased slightly, he is demonstrating that he can pitch, and they did not decrease so much that it is cause for concern; I think that is a red herring.

This could be another Cy Young consideration year for Lackey.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
I wish I could share Slyke's optimism. Kubel did show something at the end of last year, but also played 24 of the last 48 games of the season against a bunch of bottom feeders. He is also in a lineup that, frankly, is not so good overall.

On the other hand, Kubel is going to come in very underrated, and the potential is there assuming health. I might tick a dollar or two, but the risk factor of $11-12 or more is more than I can tolerate.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 26 '08
John Lackey Chicago Cubs
I am a big fan. Great stuff and is learning to control his emotions on the mound. A top 5 pitcher in the AL and worthy of a big bid. I would have no problem passing that 4x4 bid and even push $30. He is that good.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
I think 2008 will be Kubel's breakout year. There is no doubt his knee injury suffered in 2004 has hindered the progress of this once top prospect, but the knee is fully healed and you started to see his potential in the second half last year (.950 OPS in the season's last two months). Still needs to improve his BB/K ratio, and improve against LHP, but expect big things for Kubel in 2008. I would go as high as $15 and I think he will crack $20 in earnings this year.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Being a Canadian and having him on my team last year (FAAB) I watched virtually all his starts.(We get about 95% of all Jays games here).Bizarre guy to watch. His body language would tell you what you were going to get within a few batters. If he was walking around the mound constantly stretching out his back he was done early,but if he got the ball and worked fast he was good for a solid six or seven. He'd spot his fast ball to both sides of the plate, but it was his change up that was the difference. If he had that going he was almost unhittable . He obviously wore down in the stretch which I don't think was all that surprising considering that he didn't have that many innings the previous year and the condition of his knee. I believe both he and Gaudin (Fausto the most of course) contributed heavily to my win last year, despite the way they finished up. Assuming the knee is not a problem going into the year I wouldn't have any problem going to Alex's bid, maybe even a buck or two more, in my 5x5 AL only and if I get a solid first half I'd be happy. Anything else would be a bonus.
Stan Budgell sbud51
Jan 26 '08
Jay Bruce New York Yankees
All three comments ring true to me -- if he does make the Opening Day roster, it will be because he had a good enough spring to earn the starting job. THAT would mean it would take at least $20 to get him, which in keeper leagues could still end up as a bargain.

Pricing (not playing) comps in recent years would be Jason Bay and Ryan Zimmerman: making a team as a starter, with good upside but without much major-league experience. (Bay was older and had had a cup of coffee, but if you bought him for $20 in 2004 you were pretty happy for a few years.)
mike fenger mike
Jan 26 '08

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