Recent Comments

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Roy Oswalt Colorado Rockies
I like the prices. Oswalt lost faith in his stuff, and lost a grip on the strikezone. At the end of the year, he appeared to have his stuff, and its not like he lost the strike zone so much that we should be concerned he won't find it again. I look at the scan and say that 2007 is an anomaly.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 27 '08
What you say is true, mike, but there is a problem applying this analysis to Edwin. First, he is one of the worst fielding third basemen in the majors, despite lowering his error total from 25 to 16 last year; his zone rating is pretty bad. Second, despite the 25 doubles and 16 HR, he had an OPS of .798 and an OPS+ of 101, both down from the year before.

I think what you see is what you get: a guy with 450-500 AB and $15-$20 earnings.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 27 '08
Ryan Sweeney Chicago Cubs
Billy's got so much to root for he hardly knows where to look. But it's always possible that the last chip Ken Williams threw on the table to get Nick Swisher will be the one he regrets. After all, Sweeney's a hitter; the other two (Gio Gonzalez and Fautino De Los Santos) are pitchers.

Of course, just a couple of years ago Sweeney was everyone's favorite long-range prospect. After his uninspired year in Triple-A and another cup of coffee in the majors that was just as unhelpful as the first to his fantasy owners, Sweeney hit a singles-laden .286 in the Arizona Fall League, stealing a less-than-energetic 5 bases.

So now he's in Oakland. With Chris Denorfia as his competition. If that doesn't put a little spring in his step, maybe even a little zing in his bat, nothing will.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 27 '08
I think one of the toughest things to do in this game is to try and reconcile disconnects between what we think managers should do, and what they actually do. It's fine to say that the numbers support a starting job for Edwin, despite his error totals, but when he does sit once a week or so, we need to accept that there's something there that lowers his value. We can't always know what it is -- maybe he's not doing his work every day, maybe he and the manager don't get along, maybe someone who sees him in the field every day is right that his fielding isn't what it needs to be.

That said, though, the corollary is that a good place to put money is on guys who have less than full-time jobs, but who you think will hit if/when they get to play every day. It says here that Edwin should play almost every day, and be productive. If the issue is a personal one, it might be with another team . . .
mike fenger mike
Jan 27 '08
Roy Oswalt Colorado Rockies
It shows from my price, but I like his chances to rebound. He did pitch a bit better in the second half last year, and it's not like he's too old to be dominating again . . .
mike fenger mike
Jan 27 '08
Eddie Guardado Washington Nationals
Guardado's one-year deal with the Rangers includes a hefty bonus for games finished, and if he finishes games he'll be saving them. With T.J. surgery behind him and only C.J. Wilson ahead of him, the odds that he collects the bonus aren't bad at all. Obviously, the bid has to go up substantially if he shoves C.J. aside during spring training.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 27 '08
Francisco Liriano Toronto Blue Jays
He scares me more than guys like Prior and Harden. The difference between those guys and Liriano is that he has yet to pitch a full MLB season but treated like a top starter. Bid him up and let someone else have him.
E Park yoda
Jan 26 '08
Sandy Koufax Los Angeles Dodgers
Koufax is a really interesting case. He was so absolutely dominant for a three years, vastly superior to the league for two more, but didn't throw a ton of innings for the era, and had one other good season. The rest of his career was solid to poor.

Koufax's dominance wasn't to the level of Pedro in 2000. While he's a great "what if" case, he did retire because of severe injury, not unlike Kirby Puckett. All players deal with the risk of injury. It's part of the job description. It's not the same what if as Ted Williams who missed 5 years due to the nation being at war and him serving the country. Or, the more tragic what if of Josh Gibson and the other Negro Leaguers.

Koufax was an icon as much as he was a a great pitcher. His last year his ERA+ was 190. That's 90% better than the average pitcher in the league and his highest mark. Pedro exceeded 190 in 2000 with a 291, 1999 w/ 243, 1997 w/ 219, 2003 w/ 210, and 2002 w/ 202.

He pitched in a pitcher's era and in one of the best pitcher's parks of all-time. While the IP look outrageous now, they were normal for his era. He finished 1st in IP twice, 3rd once, and 4th once.

And Alex, context neutral, in 1961 Koufax was 23% better than the league average context adjusted.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 26 '08
Jeremy Bonderman Seattle Mariners
Was it realistic to expect improvement on 2006? He was a workhorse with All-Star numbers and maybe all those innings took some toll on his health. He's got one amazing lineup behind him, still shows impressive K/BB numbers and won't be expected to be an ace or stopper. Look for a rebound. $10 may be right, but earnings will be higher.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 26 '08
His top comp through age 24 is Jon Garland. Bonderman has only posted one season (2006) with an ERA+ better than league average. % worse than league average in most years, he's probably 10-12% worse than most 12 team AL leagues, since the worst pitchers are not taken/retained.

Let the Stage 2 guys bid for potential and wishes, keep the bid safely low enough not to get him.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 26 '08
Brad Lidge Washington Nationals
All those peripheral numbers are still looking pretty damn closerful. Houston is not exactly a pitcher's paradise. I would think the change of scenery portends good things, not bad.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 26 '08
Francisco Liriano Toronto Blue Jays
Wouldn't it make some sense to use Liriano in relief for awhile while he builds arm strength? It's those longer stints in starting games that broke and will break him down faster.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Jan 26 '08
Steve Pearce Boston Red Sox
He has hit at every level and the Pirates are very high on him. The Pirates have already hinted he will most likely start the season in AAA because they want him to play everday. He will be up at some point in 2008, so you might want to stash him on your reserves. Both he and McCutchen should be regulars by 2009.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Ted Lilly Los Angeles Dodgers
Has always been prone to giving up the long ball, but has never shown the control like he did last year. No reason to think he can't duplicate last years numbers. Not a sexy name, and some may not be sold on his 2007 performances, so a good chance he can be had for a reasonable price. I think the 4x4 bid seems in line, but I might go up a couple ticks...the Cubs are going to have big year.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Brad Lidge Washington Nationals
I understand why the Phillies made this trade, and I do think it was a good trade - as it allows Myers to move back into the rotation - but I am not sure Lidge is a sure thing. He has allowed 19 HR's and 66 BB's the last two years, which is a recipe for disaster in the park he will be pitching in. He's going to get a lot of K's and have great stretches, but he will also throw up his share of stinkers. His inconsistencies the past two seasons are a cause for concern for me. I would bid carefully...he won't go for less than $20, but I would not go much more than that.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Francisco Liriano Toronto Blue Jays
He is expected to be ready in time for the start of spring training. You never know what to expect from a pitcher coming back from TJ surgery, and you'll have to wait to see how he pitches against live batters this spring before setting your bid limit. If he looks good this spring, you have to think he will be a top pitcher this year. I have him frozen at $14 in my AL 4x4, and I'm hoping for a repeat of 2006. A strong spring should bump up his price...if this happens it will be tough not to bid at least $20.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Felix Hernandez Baltimore Orioles
There were rumblings that the front office forced Felix to throw a lot more fastballs compared to his other pitches. I'm unsure if that explains his struggles but still, you have to consider the fact that he is only 21 going on 22. His upside is probably as high as anyone out there and health is the only thing that stands in his way.
E Park yoda
Jan 26 '08
Jeremy Bonderman Seattle Mariners
The problem is that people will always pay more hoping for that one season he puts it all together and it may never come.
E Park yoda
Jan 26 '08
I have been a fan of Bonderman, and I still am. If you look at his career scan, he had shown improvement in each of his first 4 seasons, and was having a very good first half in 2007 (did we forget he was 9-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in July?) then the elbow injury in the 2nd half put away any hopes of a Cy Young season. Testing revealed no structural damage in his elbow, so all reports say he should be healthy coming into spring training. True, he has never put together a consistent season, but it's too early to throw in the towel on this good young arm. I think $7 is fair, but I would not have issues with this going up $10.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08
Jered Weaver San Diego Padres
I agree as well.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 26 '08

Click on the name of a player (or thread) to go directly to that page and see the comment in context with the other comments.