Recent Comments

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

And someone did call back, Alex. He's heading home to finish his career in the KBO. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210223005300315?fbclid=IwAR1U7l4kSjYNqUPKnfKvy4iTigmPq_6EEsi7mIrMFoVqbylDK50IMuUhyoo

Tim McLeod tlmcleod

Peter can reallocate $4 on his spreadsheet unless he knows something we don't!

Phil Ponebshek Texpope

Colin has once again zeroed out the phantom 2021 stats.

It's a band aid; he still hasn't found what's causing them. They may return.

Alex Patton Alex
Trevor Bauer Los Angeles Dodgers

It wasn't just Yelich that greatly underperformed  in the Central.

Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Castellanos, Hiura, Navarez, Carpenter, Edman, Suarez, Josh Bell, Brian Reynolds, Kevin Newman, Santana, Lindor, Jorge Polanco, Kepler, Moncada, Encarnacion, Mazara, Soler, Nico Goodrum.

van wilhoite LVW
C.J. Cron Colorado Rockies

Cron vs Fuentes right? He's certainly interesting going to the Rockies. I haven't updated my hitters since he got signed so I'm not sure where I'd put him.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Jesus Aguilar Miami Marlins

His value rebounded last year - but his HR/FB ratio didn't.  I'm expecting decent batting skills, but I wouldn't buy expecting a 20+ HR season.

That said, in an NL only auction wondering how gunshy those who paid up for him in 2019 and got burned will be.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Eric Hosmer San Diego Padres

He had wide variance last year. Auctioned in four leagues I'm in, he went for 12,14, 26, and 28. Obviously, in the first two cases, he gets kept. In a league where he's available, I would expect him to go around 22 especially since it wasn't a huge BABIP spike that helped him. He's likely batting fourth in a very good lineup so he's going to get his RBIs. With an improved Myers behind him, he's going to do well. 

Kent Ostby Seadogs

Is it safe to say 15 or 16 is a floor?   Because it certainly feels like that's all it will take to buy him.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
C.J. Cron Colorado Rockies

Does Cron feel like the kind of guy who could hit 30+ HR with a decent BA this year for a team?

He does to me.

The question then is tomorrow night how much will it take to find out.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope

Seems like someone who will earn more than his bid unless he comes up as the last decent outfielder.

Kent Ostby Seadogs

But is it out yet?  Unlike the Forecaster, when the print edition actually arrives is always a matter of suspense.  It's usually out by now, but I haven't seen it....

Mike Landau ML-

Hardback BP Edition?

Can we get it leather bound?

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Whit Merrifield Kansas City Royals

Yep ... 

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Zack Greinke Houston Astros

I clicked on the Baseball-Reference link in the Brady Singer thread to the complete list of "highest strikes looking percentage" and the first thing that comes up is a list of Team Pitching Pitches. I sorted that list by highest strikes looking and who should appear at the top but the Houston Astros?

Clearly, opposing batters are unsure of themselves when they face the 'Stros.

And when they face the Nationals (who rank at the bottom) they go up thinking they better swing at the first strike they see, because it's going to be a fastball.

To be honest, I don't know what this stat tells us. But there is a fairly big difference top to bottom.

Astros: 30.1%

Nationals: 23.7% 

Alex Patton Alex
Brady Singer Kansas City Royals

Taijuan Walker Spotlight

Highest strikes looking percentage in 2020 (min. 500 strikes)

NameTmStrL/Str
Brady SingerKCR69435.2%
Sonny GrayCIN59134.5%
Zack GreinkeHOU66034.4%
Lance McCullers Jr.HOU54333.9%
Ross StriplingTOT52733.4%
Zach DaviesSDP64631.9%
Dylan BundyLAA67231.8%
Frankie MontasOAK60331.7%
Zac GallenARI70231.1%
Taijuan WalkerTOT54431.1%

See 2020 pitching statistics at Baseball-Reference.com

Alex Patton Alex

He's platooning in retirement.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Joc Pederson Chicago Cubs

Picking up from a Brandon Nimmo post, my Joc Pederson projection was very optimistic about his batting average and a little too rosy about his homer power. And I adjusted my bid up a little, though I may knock him back down again as I think about him. He's of high enough risk I don't think I want to bid him up to full price.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Brandon Nimmo New York Mets

I don't look at the projections at all when I'm making my initial prices. The prices are based on what players have cost in recent years, what they earned, and how this year's expectations compare.

Then the initial round of projections are based on a mechanical algorithm that uses information from the last 2 or 3 years of stats.

Then I compare and jigger the prices and the projections as the winter moves along, based on playing time issues, injuries, and also places where the algorithm doesn't get the whole picture. I'm not  sure how Nimmo ended up with a projected .230 BA. A closer look tells me he should hit about .250, but in fewer at bats because the Mets roster is getting crowded and Nimmo has mostly been better against righties (and because he walks so much). 

A revised projection and slightly lower price will be in the updates released next week.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Whit Merrifield Kansas City Royals

If he gets traded to the NL, Phil, do you lose the stats?

Alex Patton Alex

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