Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Greg Dobbs Washington Nationals
I only had him at $10.

He sure looked good for the Phillies last year. People still call him "The Natural" in a pejorative way, but he's got a nice line drive swing that occasionally knocks one out of the park. Gillick might not know Patton $ but he does know baseball, which is why he's not beating too hard down Pedro Feliz's door.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 29 '07
Jeremy Giambi Boston Red Sox
Lewis's book is a look at management, so he didn't get down with players all that much. Best I can tell from the little real testimony we've seen the drugs, while not a total secret, weren't out in the open. So it doesn't surprise me he didn't get into that, though if he was following the news he almost surely should have.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 29 '07
Josh Beckett Los Angeles Dodgers
You're right, in the fantasy game. So let's make it a real-life question. The average hitter and average pitcher clearly have the same batting average and opponents' batting average, on-base percent and opponents' on-base percent, and so forth... Is the best pitcher in a given year more valuable than the best hitter in a given year?
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 29 '07
Greg Dobbs Washington Nationals
Greg Dobbs earned $11 last year?
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 29 '07
Josh Beckett Los Angeles Dodgers
Well, no, the average hitter wouldn't be the same, because it's the average bought hitter/pitcher; especially on the pitching side, the guys who aren't bought, aren't bought because they're below average. (And, there are more un-bought pitchers.)

However, doesn't that make the hitters more emphatically more valuable? Because the best pitchers have a "higher" average baseline than do the hitters?
mike fenger mike
Dec 29 '07
Drop in SB par for the course. Meant to be accompanied by rise in SLG.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 29 '07
Dan Haren Chicago Cubs
Came to earth in the second half (5-6, 4.15 ERA Post-All Star) and was merely mortal on the road (7-5, 3.34 ERA). But if his record in four interleague games (4-0, 7 innings each time, never more than three earned runs) is any indication, he's going to like the National League.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 29 '07
Scott Baker Los Angeles Dodgers
I haven't seen all of your bids yet, Alex, but I predict that you'll go up at least another $1 before March.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 28 '07
I've added a dollar to my bid limit for Scott Baker. Doesn't mean I'll bid it, but it slots him above the crapshoot.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 28 '07
Jeremy Giambi Boston Red Sox
Do you think Michael Lewis knew full well that steroids were also on the menu and just didn't want to go there? Or didn't want to muddy up his story? How is it that nowhere in his entire book is there any mention of steroids?
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 28 '07
Jeremy Accardo Washington Nationals
Good idea. And I have to admit I forgot about BJ Ryan. If I haven't revised my bid before we open the doors, I'm sure I'll get plenty of reminders.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 28 '07
Josh Beckett Los Angeles Dodgers
Having exactly the same categories for hitters and pitchers would be fascinating. If there were, say, ten hitters (any position, presumably) and ten pitchers, which side of the equation would you spend more money on?

The average hitter and average pitcher would by definition be the same. So are the stats of the best hitter further above average than the stats of the best pitcher are below average? That's the crux of it.

It seems to me the answer is, emphatically, yes. For mathematical reasons I'll let the mathematicians among us explain.

On the other hand, you just need to be able to count at-bats to say with certainty that Josh Beckett "played" more than Alex Rodriguez last year. Would that make him more valuable?

Retrospectively. Setting aside, for the moment, the question of whether the best hitters are easier to predict.



Alex Patton Alex
Dec 28 '07
Scott Baker Los Angeles Dodgers
The 33rd ranked A.L. starter in 2007 (sorted by AP bids, then by Patton $) was Vicente Padilla at $8.

Using Rotoman's bids, that starter was Paul Byrd, also at $8.

In 2008, I like Baker better than either Byrd or Padilla simply based on the slight possibility that he'll build on his second half and earn $15 or so.

The downside is that he'll slide back for the reasons Rotoman cites and earn $0 or worse. Which is why I won't bid $10 or more.

My guess is that someone will.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 28 '07
Jeremy Giambi Boston Red Sox
Jeremy's proclivities were so pronounced that those of us who mostly sniff the wind were well aware of his fondnesses. At least I used them as the reason, long before Moneyball, that nobody seemed to want him to play for them. Or, as I wrote in the Guide 2003:

"Giambi is an excellent hitter and terrible fielder. He will hit for power and maybe even average if he gets consistent playing time, but his fielding problems, a long-running series of aches and pains and a taste for partying could prevent that from ever happening. If he grows up and gets into shape he might have a big year, which is a good reason to check out how he's going in the spring."

We all know what happened.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Mark Kotsay San Diego Padres
Probably true, but a healthy back would help.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Jeremy Accardo Washington Nationals
It would be good to be able to enter "reexamine dates" for guys like this. So users could check the schedule and see what updates are of interest. Accardo could be great, but he could also be pushed aside come March 15. When I wrote my comment on Dec 27 I thought it would be good to have a way to express that more directly.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Except for the month I owned him (late May to late June) he was awfully good. The good news for me was that even thought he got pounded he saved plenty of games, but I suspect no one else cares about that. What everyone cares about is BJ Ryan. If he's healthy enough to pitch, Accardo will be the set up guy. Follow this situation come spring.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Scott Baker Los Angeles Dodgers
I like the slotting Mike G suggests as a guideline to see if bid limits are realistic. He is right that Baker is probably going to go for $8 in AL Leagues, and if that happens I think I might be the guy getting him. But that's a risky play.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Dana Eveland Atlanta Braves
It's too soon to dub him Quad-A, though that doesn't mean he won't earn the appellation later. He's learning, and it isn't unreasonable that he may someday learn enough (or not). He's got close to enough stuff.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Josh Beckett Los Angeles Dodgers
There you go -- maybe a variant of our game would be to, in essence, have two sets of hitting categories, with the "worst" the best on the pitchers' side. Then we'd have to come up with denominators in order to determine pitching values, but it seems like it might be easier than the ERA and ratio calculations . . .
mike fenger mike
Dec 28 '07

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