Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Jimmy Rollins San Francisco Giants
I think he's about 15th, and someone to go a few dollars beyond on if the situation calls for it, but that looks like a career year.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 21 '07
My intitial bid was $39. Then I saw what Peter and Mike had for their bids. Then I chopped $2 off.

Because Rollins did go crazy last year. The chances are he slides back a little bit.

And nevertheless, as I see it, Peter's mixed bid is way too timid. In mixed leagues, you identify the five or ten very best players and make damn sure you get two of them.

Does not Jimmy Rollins qualify as among the ten best players?
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 21 '07
Tim Wakefield Boston Red Sox
His wins were worth $15.

That being the case, owners happily lived with his neutral Ratio (Rotisserie-league average, worth $0). They weren't too pained by his ERA (a little higher than Rotisserie-league average and thus minus $4).

Interestingly, the folks at BBHQ think his ERA should have been a little higher (xERA 4.88); the Baseball Info Solutions folks think it should have been lower (ERC 4.14). I compare the ratings in this five-year scan to his actual ERAs and think his 2007 ERA was just about where it figured to be.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
His hit percent percent dropped from 34 to 28, which could be attributed to bad luck. But his line-drive percent also took quite a dive: from 24 to 16. Don't bet on his hitting .300 again.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Matt Miller Cleveland Indians
With a scoreless, if not spotless, inning last year, he lowered his career ERA to 2.72. Having faced major league hitters on 100 separate occasions, getting a little more than three outs each time, he has something to boast about to his grandchildren.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Masumi Kuwata Pittsburgh Pirates
Got a little taste of the American game after 21 seasons in Japan.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Joba Chamberlain Cleveland Indians
Is Jury Duty a TV show? That would explain it.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Roger Clemens Boston Red Sox
Author Tony Horwitz is in my league and shares this great story:

"I was at lunch with a fellow owner today and asked him how many players he had on his roster who had been implicated. He wisely replied, "obviously, not enough."
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 20 '07
Joba Chamberlain Cleveland Indians
Easy on the cultural references Rotoman; Alex never seems to know what I'm talking about!
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 20 '07
He'll be frozen in most leagues.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 20 '07
Scott Spiezio St. Louis Cardinals
If he qualifies in the outfield in your league, he's definitely worth a buck; that's how important position flexibility is.

If he qualifies at second, two bucks.

If he's retired, no bucks.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Hit .317 in the second half, slugged .516. Even though he hit more grounders, fewer flies and line drives in the second half. Despite Petco, which will always be a problem, he's poised for a breakout year, which probably means bidding wars that it's best to stay out of.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Zack Greinke Houston Astros
Interesting to compare last year to his rookie season. Quite a bit lower ERA last year, despite quite a bit higher rating. Might be a function of pitching 38 games out of the pen. Big rise in K/IP. Which could be a function of getting stronger as he fills out, which could be a function of...?
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Wally Moon Los Angeles Dodgers
That's interesting. The pitchers were gaining the upper hand without any PET (performance-enhancing trickery)?

I would say the biggest PET came after 1919, when owners decide a little juice in the ball would help their bank accounts. And they were right.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Yes, it is SLG that I'm showing below.

I can't find any reference to a raising of the mound in 1963. In 1950 a rule was adopted that no mound could be more than 15 inches.

In 1969 that was reduced to 10 inches.


Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 20 '07
For Buck the glass was nearly full in the first half (14 HR, .559 SLG), almost empty in the second (4 HR. .303 SLG). Not surprisingly, he hit mostly flies in the first half, mostly grounders in the second.

Comment in the Baseball Forecaster (which gives G/L/F info and first-half/second-half splits): "Bitter taste of his second half could create draft-day bargain."

As Bill Clinton might say, Define bargain. I doubt I'll go to my bid limit.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Joba Chamberlain Cleveland Indians
In my mind the way to do it is to allow each user a chance to upgrade or downgrade a projection (or a price) by one unit per day. So if the bid starts at $12 and someone thinks it should be $8, they would have to reduce it by a buck for four consecutive days.

That's if no one else agreed and also dropped it a buck. If consensus was that a price was too high, or low, the community could move it quickly. No individual could.

As for the User Bids, there wouldn't be a problem writing a formula that excluded the outliers, high or low, to exclude such silliness. I'm surprised Metacritic doesn't do something like this. I'm also surprised anyone thinks Jury Duty doesn't deserve a 10!
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 20 '07
Freddy Garcia Atlanta Braves
A few of the AP bids have been entered as I write comments, but most have been run in all at once from my spreadsheet as we were setting up the database. And now, as I thumb through my recently-received copy of Ron Shanlder's Baseball Forecaster, I read...

Skills holding up well before labrum surgery... Expect him to pull a Pedro, returning in time for a September surge.

Not enough to move my bid up, but just might make me think of him in the end game.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07
Curt Schilling Boston Red Sox
MLB.com just reported on what Schilling wrote on his blog, 38pitches.com. I guess they didn't have to, but Schilling is such a powerful personality and what he says here is so strong (either sue to clear your name or fess up you did it, there is no middle ground) that they couldn't really ignore it and claim they were covering the game of baseball.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 20 '07
How Not To Endear Yourself To Your Fellow Workers Department

From MLB.com 12/19:

... While Schilling has long criticized Canseco, he conceded that the former slugger likely had many accurate points in his book on rampant steroid use in baseball. Otherwise, why wouldn't many of the players named in the book have taken action against Canseco? Schilling also credits Canseco with forcing the steroid issue to be dealt with.

"So regardless of what you might think about him he has broken the flood gates on a topic that went unspoken on for far too long," said Schilling. "The view I have on that is maybe a bit too simplistic but I look at it like this. If Jose had named me in his book, it would have taken about 20 minutes for me to issue a press release vehemently denying the allegations, which would have been as closely followed as possible by as large a legal action as I could have possibly taken to sue for slander, libel, defamation of character and anything else I'd have been able to legally do.

"It's either that, or I'm guilty. There is no gray area here, you either did, or you didn't and Jose, up through today, hasn't called out anyone that's sued [him] ... for false representation, slander, libel or whatever you would do if someone said something like this about you, that you didn't do."


I'm not surprised that Schilling said this, but I'm a little surprised that MLB.com ran it.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 20 '07

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