Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Brandon Lyon Los Angeles Angels
I think Rotoman and JJ are both saying he's a Lyon in winter. They've persuaded me to take $4 off his price.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 8 '08
Jose Contreras Texas Rangers
I agree....he's the ultimate crapshoot! And certainly worth a cheap gamble, seeing how Guillen still loves the guy and he's still got a rotation spot.
Brian Boyaji EL-NINO
Feb 8 '08
Kelvim Escobar New York Mets
I just lowered my bid by $5. Have the uneasy feeling it will be coming down further before we have to actually place our bets.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 8 '08
Brian Schneider Philadelphia Phillies
I heard an interview with Randolph saying Schneider would get 60+% of the playing time. He discussed his ability to handle the pitching staff and said he liked his bat and that was a MUCH better hitter then people realized. I'll believe it when I see it.
Ryan Murphy Rjm576
Feb 8 '08
Joe Mauer Minnesota Twins
I agree with the people that are saying they wouldn't bid 21 on Mauer. The injuries and lack of power are the 2 main reasons. He could find the pwer stroke but I see him topping out in the 15HR range. With all of that being said I do think people will bid over $21 for him and shouldn't part of your bid limits be inclusive of how high you will go on players you have no interest in but will bid to a certain point to bleed moeny out of your competition?
Ryan Murphy Rjm576
Feb 8 '08
Kelvim Escobar New York Mets
Maybe Kelvim hasn't hit 200 innings more than once, but he's been close every year he's been healthy. His ratios are pretty damn good and he's learned how to pitch. Since the Angels are counting on him heavily, I really trust Sciosia to handle him correctly.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Feb 8 '08
I have a feeling that this is a Melvin psyche job. He's taking the pressure off Pena and, at the same time, challenging him to win the job. We know Lyon can't hold up as the closer, so letting Pena ease into the job will be better than throwing him into the fire. I love the guy.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Feb 8 '08
Brad Penny Miami Marlins
Last year, the whole Dodger team melted down in the second half and Penny's numbers weren't bad. In 2006, he was completely psycho in the second half and stunk. He has the tools and his makeup is improving. I admit that his first halves have preceded worse second halves. Maybe he's just too big and runs out of gas. However, I think he's got a big season in him, in a good pitchers' park with a pretty decent lineup around him. What I look for is upside, and, like I said, except for the 16-4, he has plenty of room to improve.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Feb 8 '08
Saying Salty's going to succeed because he has poor plate discipline because A-Rod did too is kind of like saying that Bill Gates dropped out of college, and therefore dropping out of college won't affect your income potential. Bill Gates and Alex Rodriguez are extremely gifted human beings who defy traditional statistical analysis because they are both such extreme outliers.

For a once-in-a-generation player like A-Rod, you could look past the 62 whiffs in 204 major league plate appearances because he was a 19 year old kid playing ball in the majors. But, for most prospects who aren't lucky enough to be A-Rod, plate discipline matters.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 8 '08
Brandon Lyon Los Angeles Angels
If Lyon comes out of spring training with the job someone's going to bid on him as the closer, but I'm with JJ. He's a great guy to get for cheap because when he's healthy and on he's very good. But he's been injury prone and doesn't really have the command to handle his lack of a strikeout pitch. Don't overpay.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 8 '08
Chien-Ming Wang Kansas City Royals
I play 4x4, so I don't know what Wang's 5x5 earnings looked like last year. I do know that he earned $23 in 4x4 in 2007. That would put him 13th amongst A.L. starting pitchers.

In 2006, his $24 season put him 7th amongst A.L. starters in 4x4. In 5x5, he drops to $18, and goes from 7th to 11th.

In a 12-team A.L., he's pitched like either a #1 or #2 starter in both years when you look at Patton $, even taking the low strikeouts into account.

I do agree about the qualitatives. He earned a lousy $6 in ERA/WHIP combined. Earnings aside, that is NOT what you're looking for in your staff ace
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 8 '08
Curt Schilling Boston Red Sox
Does Buchholz's bid go up $7?
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 8 '08
Brad Penny Miami Marlins
If Jeff is right and Penny was indeed on some sort of medication or in some sort of analysis or whatever, that makes me want him even less. His PERA was a lot closer to the 3.90 he put up in 2005 than the 3.03 he wound up with last year. If the medication helped, then the numbers tell me that Penny actually declined in 2007 based on the interiors.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 8 '08
Jeremy Bonderman Seattle Mariners
Bonderman was far and away the leader in Highest % Sliders, according to The Bill James Handbook, at 34.5%. Nate Robertson was next, and he was way back at 22.6%.

Bonderman wasn't in the Top 10 for either fastballs or curveballs.

The list does not break down pitch percentage by month.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 8 '08
Horrid K/BB ratio. Pretty unimportant. His K rate is better than 4 to one...on the edge of a problem, but not a problem. His walk rate sucks, but the relation of the one and the other are pretty pointless. K's don't limit ability, nor average, nor power. As long as they don't get ridiculous. His K rate isn't ideal, but hell ARod has survived with this kind of thing so it's not really meaningful.

That he doesn't walk is meaningful as far as his OBP...which for a catcher isn't going to produce a lot of runs anyway since they don't get a lot of PAs....

And he's 3 years old and about to get better.
Steve Parsons stevep
Feb 8 '08
After you've bought Lyon, don't think you can get Pena cheap. Just make sure you get him.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 8 '08
Rafael Soriano Chicago Cubs
Atlanta doesn't have an alternative, so he could be one of the best in the NL. Has had alot of health issues, so you're probably better off with Saito, Wagner, and Capps. Trevor, Cordero, Cordero, Valverde, Lidge, Corpas, Izzy could do better than Soriano, too, but I think they won't. The price is right.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Feb 8 '08
Chien-Ming Wang Kansas City Royals
MikeG...I think what you say is a pretty good illustration here of how values for pitchers...for that matter any player is affected by 4x4 or 5x5 and league only or mixed. Wang provides reasonable qualitatives, but not great. Good wins and nothing else....in any format.

In 5x5 he gets killed on Ks. in 4x4 he's still a bit weak becasue wins are such a crappy predictor.

But AL only his qualitatives look pretty good.... and his wins will count quite a lot more.
Steve Parsons stevep
Feb 8 '08
Brandon Lyon Los Angeles Angels
I've used this line already, but Brandon is unrelyonable. I had him in 2005 and he was lights out for a couple of months, but imploded. His peripherals aren't very good, so there's no way he stays the closer. If you can get Pena cheap, do it because he throws BB's and is learning how to pitch.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Feb 8 '08
Jose Valverde New York Mets
Watch to see how big he is in spring training. That could be a tell as to how he'll do, because he borders on the fat side. These five years say he's an every other year guy and this year is the other and it's in Minute Maid. Valverde scares me, but most of the time he throws the ball so hard that no one really makes good contact.
Jeff Jaffee JeffJaffee
Feb 8 '08

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