Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

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Alex Gordon Kansas City Royals
The best prediction I can give you about Alex Gordon is that you're going to be seeing that $17 4x4 bid in an awful lot of publications and at an awful lot of web sites this spring. The range of earnings possibilities are anywhere from $10-25, but we all know what we want to pay for those possibilities.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Moves back to the American League, this time with the Detroit Tigers. If you like him, tick the bid limit up to $16. He's in his walk year, and the poor K/W ratio has always been a problem for him. I don't know why the power disappeared last year, but there's no reason he can't bounce back to his 2004-2005 levels. Bid accordingly.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Disappointing season for Overbay and his owners last year, but he should bounce back in 2008 now that he appears to be healthy heading into this year. I think the 4x4 bid at $17 is on mark. Savvy owners will try to get him on the cheap after his dismal 2007, but don't let him go for under $15.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Jon Garland Colorado Rockies
I like the move to Anaheim for Garland, and I think that will help his numbers this year. Has reached 200 IP in each of the last 4 years, and has cracked double digits in each of the last three years. Was having a solid first half until the knot in his shoulder flared up and he struggled in July and August. Throw out those two starts where he gave up 19 ER in 4 1/3 IP, and his ERA for the season would have been 3.49. I think he is a good bet to win 14-16 games with an ERA right around 4.00. I would go as high as $10, as I think the change in scenery (along with Hunter and Matthews in the OF) will make a big impact.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Casey Janssen San Diego Padres
If you got him at a buck in the end game last year, he turned a nice profit for you. Will set up Accardo until Ryan comes back and might get some save opportunities. Not an overpowering pitcher like a League, but he throws strikes and was very consistent last year. Seems to have found his niche in the pen and should contribute again in 2008. I like him at $1 or $2.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Great stuff. Don't be afraid of him pitching in that ballpark - he actually pitched slightly better at home than on the road last year. He is a workhorse and a top 10 pitcher in the NL. I would bid up to $25 for his services.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Carl Crawford Los Angeles Dodgers
I can't see him going for under $40 this year. Three strait $40 seasons...seems to be a safe bet he will earn at least $40 again.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Jacoby Ellsbury New York Yankees
I'd love to see the projected at bats, steals and average on this guy. Based on the 4x4 price above am guessing 25 steals, 350 AB, .290 average.
John Brand JohnB
Jan 21 '08
Paul Byrd Boston Red Sox
Everything is old school throwback about this guy except the steroid allegations.
John Brand JohnB
Jan 21 '08
Johan Santana Baltimore Orioles
Will be interesting to see where he ends up. As a Red Sox or Yankee he'd get bid WAY up in my league.
John Brand JohnB
Jan 21 '08
Cole Hamels Chicago Cubs
Admittedly, I am a Phillies fan, and I see anywhere from 6-16 games live and most of the rest on television. I watch a lot of baseball, and Hamels last year looked like the ace the organization hoped he would be. 51 more innings, but only 46 more hits, many less walks and the HR rate isn't all that bad. With less walks, the HR really didn't impact his ERA.

On top of the golden arm and effortless motion, he has a great poise, and CBP doesn't seem to phase him at all. In fact, in 142 career innings at home, he has a 3.54 ERA and a .228 BA against at CBP. Last year, in 83 innings at home, that ERA was just north of 3.20.

$21 is too light for a staff ace on a good team. You won't even come close to him at that price.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
Jeremy Accardo Washington Nationals
I've been hearing 'midseason' as the return date for BJRyan, which leaves plenty of value for Accardo. Who knows what BJ will have when he comes back?
John Brand JohnB
Jan 21 '08
Chase Utley Los Angeles Dodgers
The biggest worry about Utley is that he'll wear himself down at the end of the year (again) with his style of play. On the other hand, if he holds that OBP, $33 is very light for him at 2B. At 29, looking at what he did in missing about 100 AB, I'm looking to pay a non-inflation $37 at a minimum for a line that likely will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 28/115/15/.325.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
Jimmy Rollins San Francisco Giants
I do not necessarily dispute that Rollins may have had his career year last year. Nonetheless, keep in mind that he is baseball age 29 and coming off three successive years of 30+ earnings before breaking out for $43 last year. Given relatively the same case of characters in the top half of the lineup, I see no reason to believe that Rollins, particularly in 4x4, isn't in a position to nearly duplicate last year's numbers. And if some of those triples (which I believe are the biggest anomoly in his numbers) translate to homers, that is going to be one heck of a line. If I'm drafting, I'm closer to the original $39, and I likely would say $40.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
Manny Ramirez Boston Red Sox
Keep in mind, Eugene, that the 5x5 values are Mike Fenger and Alex's bid limits. I'd assume that they're still not adding up to $3120, and that is the kind of polishing that's going to happen in the software, not here in the profiles.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Alex Rodriguez New York Yankees
http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2007/11/2007-al-hitters.html

Not sure if the link will show up, Eugene, but I've been writing about this stuff at my blog (incorporating Alex's stellar pricing theory, of course) for over a year now.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Rich Harden Oakland Athletics
Just like Prior in the NL, such a shame he can't stay healthy, and there is no reason to think he will in 2008. The A's are rebuilding this year, and they will be very cautious with him. If you are in a keeper league and rebuilding, he is worth grabbing cheap and stashing away in the hopes he will be healthy at some point in the future. Other than that, I would stay away...far away.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 20 '08
Mark Mulder St. Louis Cardinals
You can probably get him for a buck or two in the end game based on his last two years, and I think he would be worth the flier. His rotator cuff was apparently not completely healed after his surgery in 2006, and all reports say he should be ready for spring traning after his second surgery. If he remains healthy, he could be a nice surprise if you grab him cheap. Just remember to have a very short leash if he struggles in April.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 20 '08
Mark Kotsay San Diego Padres
Clearly a safer option than Josh Anderson, but the Braves cannot be excited about going into 2008 with Kotsay as their center fielder. His games played have dropped in each of the last 3 seasons, and his back problems have been well documented. I think the bid at $9 is where it should be, but I would not be surprised if Anderson (who has averaged 51 SB's in his last 4 ML seasons) outearns Kotsay this year.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 20 '08
Aaron Rowand Florida Marlins
I agree with Toz's analysis. I am going to freeze him at $17 in my NL 4x4, but I am not expecting a big ROI. I just hope his all-out style of play does not limit him to under 145 games, and he puts up numbers more like 2005 than 2006.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 20 '08

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