Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Scott Rolen Cincinnati Reds
The issue here is as much valuation as it is production. If Rolen gets another 400 AB it will be hard for him not to earn $10-11, as evidenced by the scan. Paying $11 for $10 or $11 worth of stats isn't optimal, but it isn't the end of the world. If, on the other hand, Rolen puts up a $15-17 season, you've turned a tidy little profit.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 5 '08
All four experts on the Facts and Flukes panel at Ron Shandler's First Pitch Arizona Fall League symposium said Aviles was a fluke; I'm thinking everyone's going to bid cautiously and by being a tad less than overly cautious, I'm going to get myself a nice little mid-price bargain.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 5 '08
NSH, you make a good point here. I think Youk felt he needed to carry the team with Ortiz out and Manny flaking. I also think you saw a career year and the age 27 power spike a couple of years late based on his lack of early full-time experience. I can see him sustaining this production with a healthy Ortiz (or perhaps a Tex?) in the lineup.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Dec 5 '08
Scott Rolen Cincinnati Reds
I just don't see the good ROI, even at $11. The power has been sapped, the injuries continue to plague him and he is playing on a terrible surface for his back (never mind his shoulder). Rolen will generate stats, but I would not expect more than the $11 you saw last year. Bid accordingly.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Dec 5 '08
Anthony Reyes Cleveland Indians
I would love to see you pay $12-$15 for him. The 1.2 K/W and the 1.27 ratio do not support the ERA. He went about 6IP per start (only went 3 in his last start).

Those last 5 starts btw: Baltimore, Texas, Seattle and Kansas City twice.

I am not sure I would even recommend him as a $1 flier yet, though you could do worse.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Dec 5 '08
Jerry Hairston Los Angeles Dodgers
Extrapolating Hairston's numbers over 500 AB, he would have went 11/69/28/.326 and earned $32.

Undrafted in LABR, Tout Wars, and CBS Sportsline. No bid suggested by Alex, Rotoman, or Mike Fenger in the final software update.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 5 '08
Alex Rodriguez New York Yankees
He tails off, and is still the second highest Patton $ earner in the American League and the American League leader in VORP.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 5 '08
Travis Buck Houston Astros
Oh. My bad.

Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 4 '08
Were all his extra hits (16 more than 2007) HRs? He struck out a tad more so maybe he went up looking to go deep more times in 2008? Did he try that out early on and then since it worked kept trying? I don't see any Brady Anderson stuff here.
Noah Hirsch NSH
Dec 4 '08
Travis Buck Houston Astros
These are still the 2008 bid prices, Slyke.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 4 '08
Scott Rolen Cincinnati Reds
I have always been a Rolen fan, but his shoulder woes probably mean he will never come close to the offensive seasons he once put up on a consistent basis.

I have him at $11, but I think I will either throw him back or try to flip him in deal during the off-season.

The Blue Jays owe him $26 million over the next two years, so they will throw him out there every day, but the ROI will not be what they had hoped.


Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 3 '08
Scott Lewis Cleveland Indians
Great interiors in the minors and impressed in his first two starts, before giving up a few long balls in his other 2 starts.

AL Rookie of the Month for September after going 4-0 with a 2.63 ERA over four starts.

Could be their 5th starter. Interesting lefty.

Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 3 '08
Shin-Soo Choo Texas Rangers
You are both 100% right on this one.

Choo is on everyone's radar.


Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 3 '08
Waiver wire gold last year.

People will overspend for him next year based on his stats, but I would be wary. Always had a decent stick for an IF, but last year was his best offensive season by far (never reached .800 OPS in his previous full seasons).

I would bid cautiously.

Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 3 '08
David Price Boston Red Sox
I agree as well.

Ticketed for the Rays' rotation to begin 2009.

Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 3 '08
Jensen Lewis Chicago Cubs
Took a step back last year after a very impressive rookie season. Emerged as the closer to end the season, but the talk is the Tribe will bring in a closer during the off-season.

I still think Lewis can be the closer of the future, but he might move back to middle relief to begin the season. I would invest a couple of bucks on him regardless of his role in the pen.


Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 3 '08
Travis Buck Houston Astros
$15? Really? I have him at $8, but I have no faith he will be healthy enough to sniff $15. I like him as a player, but the track record of injuries scares me. He should be able to crack that OF, and that OPS north of .800 in his 120 games provides some optimism, but I still have doubts about him this year.


Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 3 '08
Time is running out on this one-time top 5 prospect. Showed absolutely nothing in his 235 AB's last year that would lead me to believe he can contribute in 2009. If he does earn the starting 3B job, he has some value, but those K/BB ratios show he is not someone you would expect much from. His injury history is also a concern.

No sleeper here.


Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 3 '08
Anthony Reyes Cleveland Indians
Pitched great in his 6 starts after being dealt to the Tribe. Never clicked with Duncan, which is surprising considering Duncan's track record with pitchers.

Interesting guy next year. Is it possible he has put it all together at 27? The stuff is there, maybe he needed a fresh start? I like him in 2009 to be a solid pitcher to end out your rotation. I think a $12 - $15 season is possible.



Keith Cromer Slyke
Dec 3 '08
Roy Halladay Philadelphia Phillies
Toshiro - there are a number of theories about this, and we've explored many auction and drafting strategies over at rotothinktank.blogspot.com.

The simple answer is: there is no surefire way to prevent the injury bomb. Obviously, you want to avoid players with known injury histories...the big one that comes to mind this upcoming year is A.J. Burnett. 18 wins and decent qualitatives suggest strong bidding, but everything in his history suggests that strong bidding is a recipe for disaster.

In the CBS Sportsline League of Champions 2009 Mock Draft, I took a unique approach - I looked for players with at least one year of MLB experience (400+ AB) and not over the age of 28. That appears to be a good way to avoid injuries...nonetheless, ask Troy Tulo owners and Carlos Quentin owners how that worked out. At least I have a control group to look at in that league and compare that to a more veteran-oriented team.

With regard to the flyer/unproven idea, if you go that route, you won't win...one or even two of those guys might be okay (particularly if you have a minor league system, reserve list and/or FAAB), but a team full is not going to get you anywhere since the vast majority of those players fail.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Dec 3 '08

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