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Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Miguel Rojas Miami Marlins

Can the change in BB rate hold? Or small sample fluke?

Mike Landau ML-
Tony Gonsolin Los Angeles Dodgers

Seemingly the big loser in the Bauer signing (along with May). If he's up then how high do we bid him? The current PK/AP numbers seems high if he's a swing man although he's talented enough.

Kent Ostby Seadogs

One thing I look at in my leagues with aging minor league clocks when picking minor leaguers is who is on the 40 man roster. It's not my first cut of course (talent is), but guessing which talented player can help me this year can be helpful. While that's still a good list modifier, a second one is the list of NRI's that are being handed out this year. While not a guarantee on top prospects , it does give you a feel for who might start in the upper minors if they don't make the club. 

Kent Ostby Seadogs

Might have squished that bug. We'll know tomorrow morning.

Colin Summers Colin (Flying Blog)
Nick Castellanos Cincinnati Reds

Rotoman nudged me. JD Bolick pushed me. LVW shoved me.

AP4 is getting a significant bump in the March 4 update.

Alex Patton Alex

Pick or Pan?

Major Pick for me. In 2020 he had

1. Career best walk rate 7.9%

2. Kept his elite LD rate going 26.0%

3. Extremely unfortunate BABIP vs lefties .237

4. Career best HR/Fly rate 23.7%

5. His best Exit Velocity 91.0 and Barrel% 16.0% since statcast started tracking it and barrel% was in top 5% of all players

6. Overall BABIP on the unfortunate side 

I wouldn't be shocked if he has his career year in 2021.

van wilhoite LVW
Josh Bell Washington Nationals

It's just a shame the Guide wasn't published this year. If it was, you know Josh Bell would claim a lot of space:

JD BOLICK PICK: Something was wrong with Josh Bell in 2020. Following what appeared to be a breakout season the previous year, Bell posted the worst numbers of his five year career thanks to a precipitous decline in contact rates. The good news is that when Bell did make contact, he remained among the league leaders in hard hit rate and among the lowest in soft hit rate. With some slight swing adjustments to elevate his launch angle, Bell should reward the Nationals handsomely with statistics much more similar to those from 2019.

PHIL HERTZ PAN: Aside from the first half of 2019, he’s been just okay, at best.

Alex Patton Alex

My telephone book, AKA Prospectus 2021, arrived today.

David Molyneaux NeauxBrainers ()
Joey Bart San Francisco Giants

Some of the Picks and Pans in the Rotoman Special are quite short.

PHIL HERTZ PAN: Wait ‘til, at least, next year.

Alex Patton Alex
Eugenio Suarez Cincinnati Reds

JD Bolick has also written Picks and Pans for the Rotoman Special. Here's an example:

JD BOLICK PICK: Eugenio Suárez went a bit too far in his power obsession. Following an increase in home runs each of his six years in the league, culminating in 49 during the 2019 season, Suarez came crashing back to earth with a disastrous batting average and batting average on balls in play. His launch angle became too elevated and he pulled too many balls, resulting in more easy outs. The good news is that the quality of his contact remained stable, with exit velocities and hard hit rates laregly mirroring those during his brilliant performance the previous season. That means only slight changes will be required for him to resume his earlier dominance and once again put him among the very best hitting third basemen in baseball.

Alex Patton Alex
Rowdy Tellez Toronto Blue Jays

Peter posted Picks and Pans a few days ago by people who in the past have contributed to the Guide. You can't see them unless you're a subscriber. Or unless I cut and paste them into one of my comments.

To wit:

PATRICK DAVITT PICK: There’s a David Ortiz monster lurking here, if he can find PT in a Toronto lineup greatly enhanced by offseason acquisitions (or elsewhere). A career swing-from-the-heels guy (a Gary Sanchez/Rougned Odor-like 28% 2018-19 K rate), Tellez fell under the spell of Jays hitting advisor/guru Dante Bichette, and changed his entire approach. He didn’t swing less—overall Swing% was actually a point or so higher in 2020 vs 2019—but he did swing more efficiently. O-Swing was down 8 percentage points, Z-Swing up about the same, contact rate up 9 points, whiffs-per-pitch down by 4 points. Results: K% cut nearly in half. A justified 9-point jump in BABIP. 100 added points of Slg, 53 points of OBP, 56 points of BA. And while maintaining an .800+ OPS against same-side LHPs, Tellez eliminated a reverse platoon issue: .702 OPS vs LHP in 2019, .910 in 2020.

Alex Patton Alex
Jesus Aguilar Miami Marlins

Aguilar's success since he was released by Cleveland, after 58 at bats over 3 years, is part of the conversation this spring in Goodyear, where Bobby Bradley (looking trimmer, say the notes), is getting a chance to win the Cleveland job at first. Bradley's capabilities remind Cleveland of Aguilar, and they don't want to fail to give this guy a full shot at the majors, says Francona. 

Bradley, Bauers, Josh Naylor and Daniel Johnson all are competing at being the lefty either in RF or at 1st. Naylor probably gets one of those jobs, playing against LHP and RHP. 

David Molyneaux NeauxBrainers ()
Evan Longoria San Francisco Giants

First - let me state that Santo is one of my favorite players of all time.

That said - thanks to Wrigley, his home/away HR split was 216/126.

Meanwhile Longoria has played his career in two crappy HR parks -  Tropicana, and Oracle.

His home/road HR split is 146/158.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope

But there was no comparison in my view to the level of pitching each faced.

Jack Edward Penfold cubfever7
Joey Gallo Texas Rangers

Joey Gallo (OF) TEX - Feb. 22

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=763407

Gallo went to the Marucci bat lab over the offseason to get fitted for a new bat, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: The tech war is in full force in MLB, with hitters searching for new ways to combat the gains pitchers are able to make in pitching labs such as Driveline Baseball. Gallo was told by Marucci that his bat was too top-heavy, so he'll be switching to a new one that distributes the weight more evenly. It's highly unlikely that Gallo's 37.6 percent career strikeout rate can suddenly be solved by a new bat, so there's little reason to alter our assessments of the slugger based on this news alone, but it's at least possible that the new equipment helps him reach a new level.

Alex Patton Alex
Starling Marte Miami Marlins

Led the league in 2020 with 61 games played :-)

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Evan Longoria San Francisco Giants

If he can manage 20 HR a season for the last two guaranteed years of his contract, will pass Ron Santo on the career list for 3B-men.

If he manages to find 48 more HR - he passes Dick Allen onto the top 10 list.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope

I'm glad you don't because, yep, they've returned!

The 2020 stats are being replicated as 2021 stats. But the values are being generated by the 2019 formulas. In other words, we see what the 2020 stats would have been worth had they been produced in 2019.

It's some sort of coding nightmare that Colin can't figure out. When we start getting this year's stat feed, it will go away. We will see the player's current 2021 stats, with the values being generated by the formulas for the last full season.

Alex Patton Alex
Trevor Bauer Los Angeles Dodgers

A different baseball in both centrals from what was used in the other divisions? Robert Arthur has written at BP about increased exit velocities month to month and especially in the playoffs, which he attributes to changes in the baseball. Maybe the central got a bigger first batch and used it all season? Something like that.

Alex Patton Alex

I actually don't mind them. It helps understand the valuation of those stats because their values are calculated.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed

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