Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Matt Carpenter St. Louis Cardinals

If bunts are included (Billy Hamilton thread), then Carpenter's actual Hard% must nudge over 50. He bunted nine times last year and got a hit all but once.

Alex Patton Alex
Billy Hamilton Cincinnati Reds

I've skimmed through the stuff about DRC+ at BP. Gist of it seems to be that it improves on OPS+ and wRC+ by an almost imperceptible amount. Is that fair to say, Mike?

The deserved part of the name seems to indicate hard/medium/soft percents are factored in, but I don't actually see anything saying that.

As to LVW's question, it seems to me bunts should not be included.

Alex Patton Alex
Derek Dietrich Miami Marlins

This observation from Don Drooker, discussing Win Shares at rotisserieduck.com:

> Derek Dietrich added 16 to the Marlins cause and wasn’t offered a contract for 2019.

Alex Patton Alex
Luis Garcia Los Angeles Angels

Traded to the Angels for Jose Alvarez.

If a pitcher's BABIP is considered completely random, they were in fact fairly similar.

Alex Patton Alex
Jose Alvarez Philadelphia Phillies

Traded to the Phillies for Luis Garcia.

Alex Patton Alex
Brandon Morrow Chicago Cubs

Rotowire reports his right elbow was 'scoped on Nov. 6. Is expected to be close to good to go on Opening Day.

Alex Patton Alex
Carlos Carrasco Cleveland Indians

Indians inked him to an extension through 2022 with a vesting option for 2023.

His ERC (the Handbook's Component ERA) this year was 3.02. For his career it's 3.31.

Alex Patton Alex
Ronald Torreyes Minnesota Twins

Signed a one-year deal with the Twins for $800,000.

If it's guaranteed, he's happy. If it's not -- what else is new?

Alex Patton Alex
Jonathan Schoop Minnesota Twins

Signed a one-year deal with the Twins for $7 million. He won't starve while he tries to get his career back on track.

Alex Patton Alex
Nathan Eovaldi Boston Red Sox

Stays with the Red Sox. Four years, $67.5 million.

Cheap if he's healthy and performs. Seriously overpaid if he's not or doesn't. In other words, a good contract.

Alex Patton Alex
Billy Hamilton Cincinnati Reds

Yes, Mike, been reading them all. Lots to think about, especially leading to reevaluations from a fantasy standpoint. 

David Molyneaux NeauxBrainers ()

Are bunts included in hard pct?  

Delino Deshields led MLB in batted balls in play that were bunts with 32 followed by Gordon 30, Peraza 25, Odor 21, and Wong 20. 

van wilhoite LVW

Did you have a chance to read any of the DRC+ articles this week at BP?

Mike Gianella MikeG
Wade Miley Milwaukee Brewers

Totally seems reasonable, Peter, given his past history. 

carter carter GypsySoul
Chris Owings Kansas City Royals

If the BABIP rebounds, there's no reason why he shouldn't get 400 ABs with the Royals ... I'd think last years bid ($9-10) suddenly looks reasonable again.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Billy Hamilton Cincinnati Reds

As for the question I ask in the Matt Carpenter thread, here's anecdotal evidence that all hard hit balls aren't hit equally hard.

The five players with the lowest Hard Percents last year (250+ PA) along with the slugging averages when they managed to hit the ball hard:

Caleb Jospeh 24.1% .894

Cesar Hernadez 24.0% .963

Wilmer Difo 21.0% 1.179

Dee Gordon 20.4 % .763

Billy Hamilton 19.1% 1.085

The overall slugging average for hard-hit balls last year was 1.063. Clearly, Wilmer Difo and Billy Hamilton were lucky.

Slugging averages of the top five Hard Percents on Tyler Flowers' page.

Alex Patton Alex
Tyler Flowers Atlanta Braves

The slugging averages on the balls hit hard by the five players in the majors last year who hit the ball hard most often:

Matt Carpenter 1.201

Tyler Flowers .800

David Peralta 1.062

Eugenio Suarez 1.888

Tommy Pham 1.000.

The smallest sample size by far is Tyler's (only 86 balls hit hard), but it sure looks like he had terrible luck.

Their percents shown on Carpenter's page.

Alex Patton Alex
Matt Carpenter St. Louis Cardinals

Of the 410 balls Matt Carpenter put in play last year, 201 were hit hard. That works out to 49 percent, the highest Hard% in the majors (250+ PA).

His slugging average for the balls he hit hard was 1.201.

His slugging average on the 171 balls he put in play with medium contact was .290.

His slugging average on the 38 balls he put in play with soft contact was .184.

The league-wide slugging average on hard-hit balls in 2018 was 1.063.

The league-wide slugging average on medium-hit balls was .300.

The league-wide slugging average on soft-hit balls was... the Bill James Handbook doesn't say.

Nor does it say what the measurement is for how well balls are struck. Is it strictly exit velocity?

But all players with 250+ PA are ranked by Hard% and it's an interesting list.

The top five:

Carpenter 49.0%

Tyler Flowers 48.9%

David Peralta 48.6%

Eugenio Suarez 48.6%

Tommy Pham 48.5%

And only then do we come to Joey Gallo. 48.5%.

But Joey hits the ball hard with a very high launch angle and his SA on balls hit hard (1.568) is easily the highest in the majors.

Alex Patton Alex
Carson Kelly Arizona Diamondbacks

Part if the return for Goldy, who I'm surprised didn't cost more.

Alex Patton Alex
Chris Owings Kansas City Royals

Signed with the Royals for $3 million, a $400,000 pay cut.

Alex Patton Alex

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