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The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

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Mychal Givens Baltimore Orioles

"Every time a team uses an "opener" that's one more game that the starter can't win "

Huh?
Did he notice that 
Ryan Yarbrough won 16 games last year?

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Aaron Nola Philadelphia Phillies

I keep plugging the Wise Guy at The Athletic. But do I actually subscribe to The Athletic?

I do not.

I mean, do I really care about the Whitecaps FC?

I do not.

But... but... I would like to read the rest of this article:

https://theathletic.com/826047/2019/02/19/aaron-nola-and-10-other-players-that-projection-systems-are-getting-wrong/

Alex Patton Alex
Mike Moustakas Milwaukee Brewers

Comeback Player of the Year?

Alex Patton Alex

The fine print in his new contract (from BP):

  • 1 year/$10M (2019), plus 2020 mutual option. Signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 2/20/19. 19:$7M, 20:$11M mutual option ($3M buyout). Award bonuses: $0.1M for MVP ($75,000 for second place in vote, $50,000 for third). $50,000 each for All Star, Silver Slugger, Comeback Player of Year, Hank Aaron award, WS MVP. $25,000 each for Gold Glove, LCS MVP.
Alex Patton Alex
Manny Machado San Diego Padres

If you were choosing between 3 similar situations---teams thinking they will compete soon---and roughly equivalent money, where would you want to live, Philadelphia, Chicago, or San Diego?  Manny went for the beach.  He's no fool.

Mike Landau ML-
Mychal Givens Baltimore Orioles

The Wise Guy, writing for The Athletic:

Mychal Givens  All these teams dumping - I'm not sure how many but probably
five and as many as ten - creates a larger lower class of closers. More roto
teams are going to have Saves trouble, as if there weren't enough already.

As far as I'm concerned we should drop
Saves as a category and replace it with nothing. A 5x4 game. Nine suits
baseball.

While we're at it, we should replace Wins
with Innings Pitched. We want a quantitative yardstick and that's what IP is.
Why go to a derivative? And besides all the well-known luck factors in Wins,
starting pitchers get fewer and fewer of them. Just five years ago starting
pitchers were still winning 35.1% of all games. Last year it was down to 31.1%,
and will undoubtedly go below 30% this year and probably way lower. Every time
a team uses an "opener" that's one more game that the starter can't
win The stat has outlived whatever usefulness it had. 

As for the Givens situation, are the
Orioles capable of winning more than 67 games, coming off 47 games last year?
Not until they get some good players, and depending on your standards you can
argue that they have no good players. I mean, Jonathan Villar and Trey Mancini
are the big bats. Their pitching staff consists of a few question marks and a
lot of resounding no's. Even if a few things go right, 100+ losses are a
virtual guarantee. Therefore owning Givens is asking for Saves trouble. He will
go long periods with few or no Opps. Furthermore, his usage almost has to be
erratic, and that's the last thing Givens needs, prone to wildness as he is.
Your hope in owning him is that he gets traded into a closer role, which is
doubtful. Save yourself the aggravation. Even in AL leagues he has to rank at
the bottom of known closers.
$6

Alex Patton Alex
Lorenzo Cain Milwaukee Brewers

I wonder how Marquis Grissom’s earnings when he swiped 50-60 bases compared to Cain’s last year. I bet it is close given the scarcity of SBs these days.

joel schreier jschri
Yu Darvish Chicago Cubs

The Wise Guy, writing for The Athletic:

Yu Darvish  Arthroscopic procedure to remove damaged tissue in his
elbow, which leaves open the possibility of future TJS. Yu is expected to be
ready for spring training. With good news he's going to climb up draft lists
but may still be a bargain. You would probably have to make him your #2 SP and
that is risky. If I did I would take another SP right away. If the spring news
is bad, like he's going to miss any time at all, I will back way off. Assuming
normalcy, $18.

Alex Patton Alex
David Dahl Colorado Rockies

That's the algorithm value.  A .291 BA and 11 SBs have good value in this day and age, and 25 HR doesn't hurt.

Among NL regulars in 2018 those would rank him 12th in BA, 16 in HR, and 19 in SB.

FWIW, that algorithm projection looks a LOT like his career #s to date.

The bid in the Guide is $18.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Hanser Alberto Texas Rangers

DFA

Frank Smith Pancho
Josh Osich Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore

Frank Smith Pancho
David Dahl Colorado Rockies

Wow, projected to earn $29 in 4x4 in only 129 games.

GEOFF CRESAP SydThrift
Bryce Harper Washington Nationals

I'm wondering if the Machado signing ends up prolonging Harper's search for a perfect contract, rather than hastening it.

Because now it seems as if Harper HAS to have a bigger number than Machado.

And given their comparative value over the years, particularly that Machado's career is a lot less "lumpy" in terms of WAR ... The market might just not be ready to give him as much money. And I could see him holding out a lot longer trying to get it.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Mac Williamson San Francisco Giants
Phil Ponebshek Texpope

Hi Texpope,

Can you point to the story about his concussion. I didn't know that, and it is a serious business. Not only for us punters, but for his life.

Thanks.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Hernan Perez Milwaukee Brewers

Obs, I'm a fan. I say buy no matter what, everyone is down on him, but playing time is an issue that isn't going away. And his lack of walks and an obvious position could cut into it. But that's a reason to bet on him, when everyone else is playing it safe. Could be a sleeper alert, I guess.

Here's the trick. He's not a sure thing, but given his price he could be a big thing. Buy him cheap.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Manny Machado San Diego Padres

HOLY COW indeed, Howard. Go Pads!

Alex Patton Alex

PCL - I've exchanged email with Joel (jschri) ... and I will add him to a new reply to the email thread we have going about the date of our 2019 auction.

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Carlos Martinez St. Louis Cardinals
Manny Machado San Diego Padres

Machado ... Mejia ... Urias ... Tatis, Jr ... Reyes

A nice core of latino players in a county that's 35% hispanic ...

Phil Ponebshek Texpope

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