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The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

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Alex - at what point in the draft did you know that you would not win?

Howard Lynch LynchMob

Pshaw. He might be underrated. I mean, just add the factor to his numbers if he took steroids like everyone else in his era.  Paging A-Rod and Nomar, who was the best SS of the three?  Hard to know since you boys weren't legit.

Mike Landau ML-

"Jeter's always been overrated.

I say that half-seriously. If we want to talk about real baseball, we could talk endlessly about that."

Amen to that - just this morning (well, yesterday afternoon when we pre-recorded the show) we were talking about how so many were outraged that a voter left Jeter off his HOF ballot, that said voter didn't publish their ballot, there needs to be an investigation, etc... when so many objectively better players also didn't get in unanimously. Willie Mays! Johnny Bench! Hank Aaron! So many others! But no, it was Jeter's lack of perfect ballot was the call to arms!

Jeff Erickson JeffErickson

Jeff is taking us in a completely different direction (I see after making my post).

A very good point about what an extreme year 1999 was. And even so, I predict the only way the Rotoman Regimen loses in future retros is if two or more teams pursue it.

Or we add an IP minimum.

Alex Patton Alex

You're right. In a retro draft, as in any self-respecting Roto league, there should be an IP minimum.

For me, the big discovery was that concentrating on ribbies and BA didn't get me even a decent amount of runs. I didn't ignore position scarcity, in the sense that I was thinking about it each round, but just before I was about to act on it with a specific pick, somebody else made that pick. Not counting the last outfield slot, which I deliberately left open to take Ryan Klesko (the kingmaker in the earlier 1999 retro), my last five hitters were catchers and middle infielders. I was starved for runs, dropping farther in that category each round, but the cupboard was bare.

Gene and I both punted saves and steals. He nipped ahead of me in steals with his last pick. I retaliated by nipping ahead of him in wins.

Jeter's always been overrated.

I say that half-seriously. If we want to talk about real baseball, we could talk endlessly about that.

Alex Patton Alex

I think I'd be wary of drawing too many general conclusions from such an extreme season. One thing I noticed very early last week was how many teams were chasing the ratios, with pitchers that I had valued at negative values going, as early as the mid-teen rounds. That's because it was such a horrific year to be a pitcher. There were not enough of those pitchers to go around, so that's why I thought it was worth my while to steer into punting the ratios, and chasing wins/strikeouts/saves. And there were plenty of those to go around. To wit, Aaron Sele had a 4.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP - horrible, right? But the MLB averages were 4.71 and 1.463 respectively, so if he brings something else to the table, he should still be playable. And he did - 18 wins and 186 K's. I still had him as a $9 player, well above a bunch of pitchers taken before him (17.08) because of the ratios. I think our strategies/conclusions have to shift with a given year, and often the strategy evolves during the draft. 

Jeff Erickson JeffErickson

And this proves ... if you take Jeter in the 1st round, you won't finish well ... or ... if you take a SS in 1st 2 rounds (as *5* owners did!), you won't finish in Top 3 (ie. maybe position scarcity isn't as much of a factor for SS as many feel?) ...

I assume no minimum IP rule?  Why play the game?  JeffW wins the "find the biggest loop hole" game.

If Gene figures out a way to give up just a few HRs (20) and RsBI (50) for 10 more Rs, he wins ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Kevin Kramer Pittsburgh Pirates

Does Kramer still get credit towards his pension if he doesn't play at all this year?

Alex Patton Alex

Kevin Kramer (OF) PIT - May. 20

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=740983

Kramer underwent surgery last week to repair the labrum of his right hip, Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic reports. He'll be sidelined for 4-to-6 months before resuming full baseball activities.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Even if MLB resumes at some point later in June or July with an abbreviated season, Kramer's recovery timeline from the surgery essentially rules him out from playing with the Pirates in 2020. Before MLB went on hiatus, the 26-year-old utility man was enjoying a productive spring training but was widely expected to open the campaign at Triple-A Indianapolis. 

Alex Patton Alex
Kenley Jansen Los Angeles Dodgers

Kenley Jansen (P) LA - May. 20

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=740984

Jansen has been working out "every day" and throwing occasional bullpens in anticipation of a resumption of play, he stated in an interview with John Hartung of Spectrum SportsNet LA.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Jansen's bullpen sessions have been far from traditional -- he explained that they have taken place on the street in front of his home -- but he has nonetheless been able to maintain a consistent workout schedule despite a lack of access to team facilities. If a 2020 season is able to be played, Jansen will once again function as the Dodgers' closer and will look to bounce back from a mildly disappointing 2019 campaign in which he suffered a career-worst eight blown saves. 

Alex Patton Alex

After four contests, it's now official: the way to go is the Rotoman Regimen. Punt wins and Ks. Here are the results last night.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-SM1p4zw9A1p7fSiztFNP21it9so81pvEjPQLX4WTSo/edit#gid=0

The year was again 1999 with mostly new participants.

Here's what happened a week ago.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qKKORTfmXmmx6AEwTUJ6Kn9yZ1G6xBWATq65oSx8_E0/edit?ts=5eb8a24c#gid=0

Even if you have no interest in these retro drafts, you shoulld explore Todd Zola's ingenious Google doc. I can see where it would be very powerful in a real draft -- or auction -- using projections.

Alex Patton Alex

There have been positional problems. The simple answer, he did not.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman

Chuck Knoblauch played OF in 1999? 

van wilhoite LVW

Doug led in ERA and was second in WHIP. I was second in ERA and third in WHIP. Dean was third in ERA and first in WHIP. Fred was first in strikeouts and fifth in ERA and WHIP. And the three of us are way ahead of the other nine teams, with Fred finishing just ahead of them. 

I think this shows not a problem with my pricing, but a problem with pricing in general. The dollar values work, but they then have to be applied to the right stats when you're constructing your team. In other words, it's not the meat it's the motion.

But one issue to be aware of is that pitcher value very much depends on which 108 pitchers you value. The math will tell you one group, but as we can see, for a team in a particular position, a player like David Cone or Pedro Astacio will have real value and supplant one of the 70 inning relievers with a low ERA and Ratio that usually reside in the $1-$5 range.

So, if you go and reprice the actual pool, so that the worst pitcher is worth $1 and the 108 add up to $1092, the value of Pedro Martinez drops from $55 to $25. 

In the prospective leagues we usually price for, this phenomenon drives up the value of the best pitchers, but when we know what the stats are we're going to add up to it seems to do the opposite. Here's how the Retro earnings looks with the pitching pool repriced. 


This doesn't really make sense to me logically but eyeballing the Dollar totals in this chart makes more sense to me than the earlier one.

UPDATE: About 20 minutes after the original post I realized that the hitters need to be adjusted too, for the same reason. Here we see the much tighter results we'd expect from a tight race. I will post updated net numbers if get a chance, and I'm definitely going to repeat this analysis on tonight's results.  


Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
J.D. Martinez Boston Red Sox

And Bregman wears #2 because he is bitter that he wasn't the #1 pick.  If I recall, it was considered a toss up between him and Dasnby Swanson for #1.  The Astros also got Kyle Tucker with the #5 pick in that draft.  Benintendi went #7.  Looks like a pretty weak return in the 1st round for most teams.

Baseball Reference 2015 Draft

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed

MLB Trade Rumors has a piece today on JD Martinez - notably how the Astros cut him loose after the 2013 season, and he immediately became a star for the Tigers in 2014.

Bad for Astros ... except.

Astros used the #2 pick in the 2015 draft to acquire Alex Bregman ... 

Chances they'd have had a shot at Bregman had they drafted a few picks later?  Almost none.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope

Peter ... going back to this "Doug, who bought the third most, finished ninth."

Did Doug lead in any categories? (i.e. did he blow money in those categories that didn't help him gain points?).
If not then it might call into question your assumptions on pricing.

Kent Ostby Seadogs

Oh my gosh. A smoking gun!

https://nypost.com/2020/05/19/mlb-thinks-email-is-smoking-gun-in-salary-fight-with-players/

It's dismaying that both sides are spending their energy issuing press releases. They should say simply that they are working on the problem "in good faith" and then go into a virtual room, lock the door, and get to work.

The details are incredibly complicated but the issue isn't. What kind of revenue can be expected playing half a season in empty stadiums? How should it be divided?

The answer about revenue will be a guesstimate. The owners will have to take some risk there. Lord know the players are taking risk by going out onto the field. 

Alex Patton Alex
Reynaldo Lopez Chicago White Sox

Reynaldo Lopez (P) CHI-A - May. 19

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=740981

Lopez said mental lapses were what caused him to drop to the bottom of the White Sox's rotation, Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Lopez said a bad pitch or outing would linger, and he couldn't shake it easily. That led to the league's second-worst ERA (5.38) among starters and a 10-15 record. After being one of the steadiest pitchers on the staff in 2018, Lopez entered 2020 spring training as the projected fifth starter behind Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and Dylan Cease. While the right-hander feels his approach and preparation need to be better in 2020, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn thought the pitcher's issues stemmed more from mechanics. "Sometimes these guys don't climb progressively with each and every start or each and every month," said Hahn. "There's setbacks and there needs to be adjustments, not just from the mechanical side, which is probably what plagued Lopey more than anything in the first half, but sometimes from the approach and preparation side." If mechanical adjustments lead to improved results, then that may be the elixir that improves Lopez's mental preparedness. 

Alex Patton Alex

According to this article in The Athletic, those rules haven't been decided yet.  It does say the Rangers don't anticipate anyone on the taxi squad unless they are major league ready, so the prospects a couple years off are unlikely to be included.

John Thomas Roll2

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