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So, let's say we think next year he'll be a $20. Since we don't get this year for him, he's worth $10. But since he may not be in the AL he's worth $5. Since next year is a long time from now I'd discount him more, but paying $3 seems reasonable.
If you think he could get back to 2019 the answer is $50, then $25 (2nd year), then $12 (league). Maybe $6 or $7 (risk of being wrong he'll earn $50 next year). Could be a great deal, or zilch, but it might make sense if you really have no chance this year.
So what do you pay for him in AL-only keeper when there's a good chance he's not on an AL team a year from now?
RG Newsletter 3/3 is out. Links to expert drafts, talk about Yordan Alvarez and those wacky new spring training rules, and profiles of Shane Bieber and Joe Musgrove, too.
Read, subscribe, tell me who to profile at rotoman.substack.com
He was my main relief pitcher buy in the CBS H2H - paid $6 for him.
Of course, 12 teams, and you only start two relievers - and there are some "SPARPS" who qualify as relievers from last year, and can rack up starter points in your relief slot. A middling starter generally has as many points in a year as a good reliever.
Followed him up with a $4 SPARP AJ Puk (I figure he won't be a starter right off, but by midseason he might - and meanwhile he will rack up decent points with K's and long-relief innings.
And then added Richard Rodriguez for a buck - who will probably be my R2 until I figure out how Puk is being used.
Some people were out to spend on relievers - Hader 18, Chapman 15, Hendricks 13. But then everyone else went for less than $10. As it should be in a league where any given week if you need a replacement reliever there will be a few closers in the FA pool.
Valdez suffered a fractured left ring finger, fielding a comebacker from Francisco Lindor. No timetable for a return has been announced. It might be time to give Luis Garcia a small boost in your 2021 pitching plans.
Jordan Hicks hit 102 on the gun yesterday, according
to the Cardinals pitching coach Mike Maddux. Hicks is an interesting
case because he was expected to struggle a little last year while
coming back from TJ. Then came pandemic and he opted out, so we haven’t
seen him struggle and he’s now far enough removed that maybe he’s moved
past that. The Cardinals pen has a handful of great arms, but a healthy
Hicks seems like the obvious choice to finish games.
My "big dollar" buy among hitters in the CBS Head-to-Head auction.
$10
Ok, Semien cost me that as well.
So my lineup:
Salvador Perez 3
Rizzo 10
Brandon Lowe 7
Semien 10
Kyle Seager 1
Blackmon 9
Meadows 8
Brantley 7
Ohtani 5 (I can also plug him in as a starter if one of my guys is in Coors or gimpy)
Bench
Mancini 4
Segura 4
Cronenworth 1
Not bad for $69?
My big dollar buy in last night's CBS looney-tunes (aka - 12 team mixed league head-to-head points) auction.
9 position players, 5 starters, 2 relievers. So while we started with the customary 260 budget, traditional salaries meant nothing except for comparison purposes. And you even had to adjust comparisons since in a points league walks are a plus and K's a minus for a hitter, and a triple is 3/4 as valuable as a HR. And the hitter to pitcher balance really inflates the value of big starters.
Anyway - I'm kind of a Bauer sceptic ... but I slept at Bieber went for 56 right out of the gate, gave up on DeGrom when someone +1'd my 65 bid (!!!), and Cole went for 63. So I took Bauer at a relative "bargain" of 50 smackers.
Went in with a strategy of just scooping up the excess hitting depth that would be left over at each position when only 12 of each are on starting rosters each week ... and followed Bauer with:
Buehler 39
Snell 34
Greinke 29
Fried 25
Yep - a whopping 177 bucks spent on 5 starters. Barring injury it will simplify my life during the season though - no streaming, or taking chances on the waiver wire for 2-start pitchers. Pretty much plug and play for those guys as long as they're healthy.
A word to the wise:
Oakland Athletics – The A’s have a solid team, and with the late-signing of Trevor Rosenthal, an equally solid bullpen. For those playing in Keeper/Dynasty Leagues, monitor J.B. Wendleken closely. Rosenthal might be getting paid over three years, but the odds of him sticking around for more than one year are virtually nil.
https://prospect361.com/tims-stage/2021-positional-rankings/closers/
If you play in a dynasty league, or even a keeper league that allows you to carry a player for several years at the price you paid for him, clearly you want your bid for Wendelken to be more than one measly buck.
What about this year?
How solid, really, is Trevor Rosenthal?
How solid is any closer?
What if Rosenthal pitches great and even so, the A's decide to go with multiple closers?
What if they want Diekman to get the last three outs when three lefty hitters are due up?
What if they want Sergio Romo to pitch the ninth because the three batters due up simply cannot hit a slider?
What if Trivino has been lights-out against the three batters due up and Rosenthal pitched the day before?
What if the A's decide no one should pitch on consecutive days, just because?
Baseball is in flux and I'm not sure these numbers from Ron Shandler capture what we can look forward to...
Number of saves in the majors in 2018: 1244
Number of saves in the majors in 2019: 1180
Number of saves in the majors in 2020 (pro-rated): 1139
Number of pitchers with 20+ saves
2018: 20
2019: 22
2020 (pro-rated): 17
Number of pitchers with 5+ saves
2018: 50
2019: 53
2020 (prorated): 67
As Ron sums it up in the Forecaster...
Fewer saves + more pitchers getting saves = recipe for draft day disaster
AP4 has to be more than $1 for Wendelken in the update tomorrow night. How much more I'm still trying to decide.
The money has to come out of Rosenthal's paycheck.
Or should it come from non-ace starting pitchers, which is to say, almost all of them? It has to come from somewhere.
Where do you stop bidding for James Karinchak?
As we see -- thanks to Texpope, our man in CBS -- the zoom room in a demo league went $3 past what Peter advises in 5x5.
Too late for these experts, Peter issued a warning four days ago. To read the full warning costs you $10 (or 36), but here is the flavor.
Karinchak's fastball is first rate, ranks in the top 15 percent of pitchers, and he uses it to strikeout 42 percent of his batters, walking six percent. But it's his curve that is his weapon and his Achilles' heel. He strikes out 51 percent with it, but walks 17 percent. And that's all he's got... Karinchak needs his curveball to punch out hitters, but as hitters learn to lay off it he's got to get better throwing it for strikes. Clearly he's not doomed... but that vulnerability is there waiting for smarter hitters ready to exploit any difficulties he has adjusting. It will be fun to see how it goes.
The fun depending on how it goes and whether you bought him or someone else did.
Peter concludes his extended comment --
So far, so good, but this type of pitcher is always a risk. He doesn't have a lot of room for error.
Ron Shandler adds another warning in the Baseball Forecaster: Bassitt "went 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA without facing a single .500 club."
How was that possible?
Ron explains.
"Oakland won the AL West while playing only six of 60 games against winning teams, three each against the Dodgers and Padres. Imagine! Playing over 80 percent of your schedule against losing ball clubs!"
Baseball’s Best Reliever? This Spring, It’s the Pitch Count
A new rule introduced to protect pitchers’ arms is already serving an alternate purpose: preventing big innings.
... Zac Gallen pitched the first inning for the Diamondbacks. But with two out and two men on, but no runs scored, he reached 20 pitches. It was time for what many players are calling “rolling the inning.”
“I didn’t know that was a thing this year,” Gallen told MLB.com. “So when I heard, ‘Roll,’ I thought it was a joke.”
Gallen ended the day with two scoreless innings for Arizona. The base runners in the first inning ended up with a walk to the dugout instead of a chance to reach home plate.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/sports/baseball/mlb-pitch-count.html
Not one true outcome in two scoreless innings against the Rays. Wind 6 mph in from LF; that might hav helped.
OTOH, five homers were hit in the game, four by the Red Sox.
Way too early to tell what kind of ball they are using.
Lots of movement in his timing device.
Chicago White Sox
—No. 1 prospect Andrew Vaughn hit his first home run of the spring, a three-run shot to left field, and scored twice.
<video of ANDREW VAUGHN 3-RUN BOMB>
Some of Baseball America's daily prospect reports come with videos. Abrams turns a stand-up double into a stand-ip triple.
San Diego Padres
—No. 2 prospect CJ Abrams showed off his 80-grade speed with a triple to right field against the Diamondbacks. He scored two batters later on a sacrifice fly.
Today from BA...
Detroit Tigers
—Outfielder Akil Baddoo, whom the Tigers acquired with the third overall pick in the Rule 5 draft from the Twins, picked up his second hit of spring training on an RBI double to left field in the second inning against the Pirates. The Tigers No. 17 prospect is fighting to make the team as a reserve outfielder.
—No. 3 prospect Casey Mize struck out three batters in two scoreless innings to earn the win in his first spring start, but the control issues that plagued him last season (4.1 BB/9) remained. He walked three of the nine batters he faced.
Beer has some potential reps at least in Spring with the Calhoun injury.
Today's Baseball America prospect report...
Chicago Cubs
—No. 5 prospect Adbert Alzolay struck out one in a perfect inning of work against the Royals. The 25-year-old righthander will slot into the rotation again after starting four times in 2020.
In BA's daily prospect report...
Boston Red Sox
—No. 5 prospect Jarren Duran hit a towering blast to right field for his first home run of the spring in the third inning. The 24-year-old outfielder has hit just eight home runs in 199 minor league games, but focused last summer on adjusting his swing to generate more power.
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If there's going to be dumping deals in your league (see Chris Sale comment) I'd say he ends up scaring double digits - because a $9 Verlander will be tradable for probably $20 worth of second-half production ... and hopefully you can DL him and slide in a quality reliever from the reserve draft/FA pool who nets you $5 value in the first half.